We conducted three experiments to investigate the effects of physical and psychological pains on intertemporal choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, physical pain was induced by the self-created Shiatsu sheet treading method (SSTM) and the classical cold pressor task (CPT), respectively. In Experiment 3, psychological pain was induced by the video induction method. All types of pain increased preference for smaller immediate rewards. Theoretical implications and practical implications are discussed.

Aim. To identify, integrate, and appraise the evidence on hospitalised smokers’ and staff perspectives of inpatient smoking cessation interventions and the impact on smokers’ quality of life. Design. The integrative review method was used to present hospitalised smokers’ and staff perspectives of inpatient smoking cessation interventions. Search Method. This integrative review consisted of a comprehensive search on smoking cessation interventions that take place during an inpatient admission to hospital for adults (> age 18 years) of the following online databases: Ovid Medline, Joanna Briggs Institute, APA PsycInfo, CINAHL, Cochrane, Google Scholar, PEDro, and Scopus. The search strategy was inclusive of peer-reviewed studies limited to the English language or translated to English. A search of grey literature and manual searching of reference lists was also conducted to identify further studies not identified in the online database search. All studies that produced any qualitative data (i.e., qualitative, mixed methods, and surveys) on inpatient-initiated smoking cessation programs were included. Outcomes of interest are included but were not limited to education, counselling, and the use of pharmacotherapy. Studies undertaken in the psychiatric, adolescent, and paediatric settings were excluded. Results. The key findings from this integrative review included positive evaluations from both patients and staff involved in inpatient smoking cessation interventions, reporting that hospitalisation was an appropriate opportunity to address smoking cessation. A number of facilitators and barriers to inpatient smoking cessation interventions included creating a supportive patient-centred environment and consideration of the cost of nicotine replacement therapy and time to deliver inpatient smoking cessation interventions. Recommendations/preferences for future inpatient smoking cessation interventions included the use of a program champion and ongoing education to demonstrate the effectiveness of the intervention, and despite the cost of nicotine replacement therapy being identified as a potential barrier, it was identified as a preference for most patients. Although quality of life was only evaluated in two studies, statistically significant improvements were identified in both. Conclusion. This qualitative integrative review provides further insight into both clinician and patient participants’ perspectives on inpatient smoking cessation interventions. Overall, they are seen to produce positive benefits, and staff training appears to be an effective means for service delivery. However, insufficient time and lack of resources or expertise appear to be consistent barriers to the delivery of these services, so they should be considered when planning the implementation of an inpatient smoking cessation intervention.

Because of the large amount of information and the difficulty in selecting an appropriate recipient in the context of charitable giving, people tend to make extensive use of heuristics, which sometimes leads them to wrong decisions. In the present work, we focused on exploring how individuals are influenced by anchoring heuristics and how group membership interacts with this heuristic. In Experiment 1, two different groups of participants were informed about low versus high average donations of other people, and a third control group did not receive any information about the others’ donations. The results showed that participants were willing to donate significantly more in the high-anchor condition compared to the low-anchor condition, as well as about the same amount of money in the low-anchor condition and no-anchor condition. Experiment 2 and 3 showed that high anchors are more effective when the information about others’ donations reflects members of the ingroup rather than the outgroup. Other variables related to these results are further discussed.

Bias Blind Spot (BBS) is the phenomenon that people tend to perceive themselvesas less susceptible to biases than others. In three pre-registered experiments(overall N = 969), we replicated two experiments of the first demonstration ofthe phenomenon by Pronin et al. (2002). We found support of the BBS hypotheses,with effects in line with findings in the original study: Participants ratedthemselves as less susceptible to biases than others (d =–1.00 [–1.33, –0.67]). Deviating from the original, wefound an unexpected effect that participants rated themselves as having fewershortcomings (d = –0.34 [–0.46, –0.23]),though there was support for the target’s main premise that BBS wasstronger for biases than for shortcomings (d = –0.43[–0.56, –0.29]). Extending the replications, we found that beliefsin own free will were positively associated with BBS (r ∼0.17–0.22) and that beliefs in both own and general free will werepositively associated with self-other asymmetry related to personal shortcomings(r ∼ 0.16–0.24). Materials, datasets, andcode are available on https://osf.io/3df5s/.

Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women.To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference,657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various riskyactivities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, andsocial), and reported their perceptions of (1) probability of negative outcomes,(2) severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3) enjoyment expected from therisky activities. Women’s greater perceived likelihood of negativeoutcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lowerpropensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains.Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in thegambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensitytowards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with highpotential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to otherdomains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain.This gender difference was partially mediated by women’s more optimisticjudgments of the probability of good outcomes and of outcomes being moreintensely positive.

This paper summarizes an empirical comparison of the accuracy of forecasts included in analysis reports developed by professional intelligence analysts to comparable forecasts in a prediction market that has broad participation from across an intelligence community. To compare forecast accuracy, 99 event forecasts were extracted from qualitative descriptions found in 41 analysis reports and posted on the prediction market. Quantitative probabilities were imputed from the qualitative forecasts by asking seasoned professional analysts, who did not participate in the prediction market, to read the reports and to infer a quantitative probability based on what was written. These readers were also asked to provide their personal probabilities before and after reading the reports. There were two statistically significant results of particular interest. First, the primary result is that the prediction market forecasts were more accurate than the analysis reports. On average prediction market probabilities were 0.114 closer to ground truth than the analysis report probabilities. Second, in cases where analysts (readers) updated their personal probabilities in a direction opposite to what the reports implied, analysts tended to update their probabilities in the correct direction. This occurred even though, on average, reading the reports did not make readers more accurate.

Third-party punishment has recently received attention as an explanation for human altruism. Feelings of anger in response to norm violations are assumed to motivate third-party sanctions, yet there is only sparse and indirect support for this idea. We investigated the impact of both anger and guilt feelings on third-party sanctions. In two studies both emotions were independently manipulated. Results show that anger and guilt independently constitute sufficient but not necessary causes of punishment. Low levels of punishment are observed only when neither emotion is elicited. We discuss the implications of these findings for the functions of altruistic sanctions.

Tobacco users are exposed to a higher risk of noncommunicable diseases, leading to premature mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The future prediction indicates that tobacco-related mortality and morbidity rates will substantially increase in coming years. The study is aimed at assessing the prevalence of tobacco consumption and cessation attempts for different tobacco products among adult men in India. The study utilized information from India’s latest National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) data which was conducted during 2019-21, including 988,713 adult men aged 15 years and above and 93,144 men aged 15-49. Results suggest that 38 percent of men consume tobacco, including 29% in urban and 43% in rural areas. Among the men aged 35-49 years, the odds were significantly higher for consuming any form of tobacco (AOR: 7.36, CI: 6.72-8.05), smoking cigarettes (AOR: 2.56, CI: 2.23-2.94), and smoking bidi (AOR: 7.12, CI: 4.75-8.82) as compared to those aged 15-19. The application of multilevel model indicates that tobacco usages are not evenly distributed. In addition, there is maximum clustering of tobacco usages found around household level factors. Further, 30% of men aged 35-49 years attempted to stop consuming tobacco. Though 27% of men tried to quit tobacco in the last 12 months and 69% of men are exposed to secondhand smoke, 51% of men who received advice for quitting tobacco and visited the hospital in the last 12 months belong to the lowest wealth quintile. These findings prioritize promoting awareness about adverse effects of tobacco use, especially in rural areas, and capacitate them to adopt cessation efforts so that those who want to quit may be successful in their efforts. In addition, the health system’s response to the tobacco epidemic in the country should be strengthened by training of service providers to promote cessation efforts through appropriate counselling of all the patients visiting them in the context of tobacco use in any form as key drivers of the increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the country.

We examine financial challenges of purchasing items that are readily-available yet symbolic of loving relationships. Using weddings and funerals as case studies, we find that people indirectly pay to avoid taboo monetary trade-offs. When purchasing items symbolic of love, respondents chose higher price, higher quality items over equally appealing lower price, lower quality items (Study 1), searched less for lower priced items (Study 2) and were less willing to negotiate prices (Study 3). The effect was present for experienced consumers (Study 1), affectively positive and negative events (Study 2), and more routine purchase events (Study 3). Trade-off avoidance, however, was limited to monetary trade-offs associated with loved ones. When either money or love was omitted from the decision context, people were more likely to engage in trade-off reasoning. By abandoning cost-benefit reasoning in order to avoid painful monetary trade-offs, people spend more money than if they engaged in trade-off based behaviors, such as seeking lower cost options or requesting lower prices.

Physicians expect a treatment to be more effective when its clinical outcomes aredescribed as relative rather than as absolute risk reductions. We examinedwhether effects of presentation method (relative vs. absolute risk reduction)remain when physicians are provided the baseline risk information, a vital pieceof statistical information omitted in previous studies. Using a between-subjectsdesign, ninety five physicians were presented the risk reduction associated witha fictitious treatment for hypertension either as an absolute risk reduction oras a relative risk reduction, with or without including baseline riskinformation. Physicians reported that the treatment would be more effective andthat they would be more willing to prescribe it when its risk reduction waspresented to them in relative rather than in absolute terms. The relative riskreduction was perceived as more effective than absolute risk reduction even whenthe baseline risk information was explicitly reported. We recommend thatinformation about absolute risk reduction be made available to physicians in thereporting of clinical outcomes. Moreover, health professionals should becognizant of the potential biasing effects of risk information presented inrelative risk terms.

Individuals differ in their ability to deal with unpredictable environments. Could impaired performances on learning an unpredictable cue-criteria relationship in a laboratory task be associated with impaired learning of complex skills in a natural setting? We focused on a multiple-cue probability learning (MCPL) laboratory task and on the natural setting of pilot training. We used data from three selection sessions and from the three corresponding selected pilot student classes of a national airline pilot selection and training system. First, applicants took an MCPL task at the selection stage (N = 556; N = 701; N = 412). Then, pilot trainees selected from the applicant pools (N = 44; N = 60; N = 28) followed the training for 2.5 to 3 yrs. Differences in final MCPL performance were associated with pilot training difficulties. Indeed, poor MCPL performers experienced almost twice as many pilot training difficulties as better MCPL performers (44.0% and 25.0%, respectively).

Past research has shown that many people prefer natural foods and medicines over artificial counterparts. The present study focused on examination of aversive events and hazards. Preferences were compared by having subjects consider pairs of scenarios, one natural and one artificial, matched in negative outcome and severity. Pairings were also rated along several dimensions of risk perception such as dangerousness, scariness, likelihood, and fairness. As hypothesized, natural hazards were consistently preferred to functionally identical artificial ones. Additionally, natural hazards tended to be considered less scary and dangerous, but not necessarily more unfair or unlikely than equivalent artificial counterparts. Results are discussed in terms of risk perception, and how that can lead to people diminishing risks associated with natural hazards.

Patients suffering from the behavioral variant of Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD-b) often exaggerate their abilities. Are those errors in judgment limited to domains in which patients under-perform, or do FTD-b patients overestimate their abilities in other domains? Is overconfidence in FTD-b patients domain-specific or domain-general? To address this question, we asked patients at early stages of FTD-b to judge their performance in two domains (attention, perception) in which they exhibit relatively spared abilities. In both domains, FTD-b patients overestimated their performance relative to patients with Dementia of Alzheimer Type (DAT) and healthy elderly subjects. Results are consistent with a domain-general deficit in metacognitive judgment. We discuss these findings in relation to “regression to the mean” accounts of overconfidence and the role of emotions in metacognitive judgments.

In social contexts, we refer to strategic sophistication as the ability to adapt our own behavior based on the possible actions of others. In the current study, we explore the role of other-oriented attention and cognitive reflection in explaining heterogeneity in strategic sophistication. In two eye-tracking experiments, we registered eye movements of participants while playing matrix games of increasing relational complexity (2x2 and 3x3 matrices), and we analyzed individual gaze patterns to reveal the ongoing mechanisms of integration of own and others’ incentives in the current game representation. Moreover, participants completed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), in addition to alternative measures of cognitive ability. In both classes of games, higher cognitive reflection levels specifically predict the ability to incorporate the counterpart’s incentives in the current model of the game, as well as higher levels of strategic sophistication. Conversely, players exhibiting low cognitive reflection tend to pay less attention to relevant transitions between the counterpart’s payoffs, and such incomplete visual analysis leads to out-of-equilibrium choices. Gaze patterns appear to completely mediate the relationship between cognitive reflection and strategic choices. Our results shed new light on the cognitive factors driving heterogeneity in strategic thinking and on theories of bounded rationality.

Hierarchical Bayesian methods offer a principled and comprehensive way to relate psychological models to data. Here we use them to model the patterns of information search, stopping and deciding in a simulated binary comparison judgment task. The simulation involves 20 subjects making 100 forced choice comparisons about the relative magnitudes of two objects (which of two German cities has more inhabitants). Two worked-examples show how hierarchical models can be developed to account for and explain the diversity of both search and stopping rules seen across the simulated individuals. We discuss how the results provide insight into current debates in the literature on heuristic decision making and argue that they demonstrate the power and flexibility of hierarchical Bayesian methods in modeling human decision-making.

We report two studies on the perceived responsibility of opponents competing for a goal that can be attained by only one of them. Responsibility judgments were collected in seven samples of lay people and experts before, during, and after the World Chess Championship in 2013. Participants assessed the responsibility of the two players, their supporting teams, local conditions, and chance factors for four hypothetical outcomes (large and small loss/win for each player), along with probabilities for these outcomes, demonstrating subadditivity (sums exceeding 100%) in all samples, even among chess experts. The winner was consistently perceived to be more responsible than the loser, and more for outcomes with large than small margins. There was also an effect of focal player, as Carlsen was given more responsibility both for losses and wins than Anand, by the present (Norwegian) pro-Carlsen samples. However, this effect could be modified by describing the outcomes as Anand’s (rather than Carlsen’s) wins and losses. Thus the study adds to the valence framing literature by showing how responsibility judgments are affected by the way outcomes are framed.

Hammond (1996) argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM) can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (C&C) and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to understand the differences between these two criteria. Hammond’s claim is that conclusions about the competence of judgments and decisions will depend upon the selection of coherence or correspondence as the criterion (Hammond, 2008). First, I provide an overview of the terms coherence and correspondence (C&C) as philosophical theories of truth and relate them to the field of JDM. Second, I provide an example of Hammond’s claim by examining literature on base rate neglect. Third, I examine Hammond’s claim as it applies to the broader field of JDM. Fourth, I critique Hammond’s claim and suggest that refinements to the C&C distinction are needed. Specifically, the C&C distinction 1) is more accurately applied to criteria than to researchers, 2) should be refined to include two important types of coherence (inter and intrapersonal coherence) and 3) neglects the third philosophical theory of truth, pragmatism. Pragmatism, as a class of criteria in JDM, is defined as goal attainment. In order to provide the most complete assessment of human judgment possible, and understand different findings in the field of JDM, all three criteria should be considered.

Background. Primary care providers play a key role in screening for tobacco use and assessing desire to quit. Tobacco treatment specialists (TTS) are certified in helping patients who desire tobacco cessation. A primary care nurse practitioner within one Midwestern healthcare organization obtained TTS certification and integrated specialized tobacco cessation visits within a primary care clinic from February 2021 to February 2022. Purpose. To determine the efficiency and effectiveness of an integrated TTS-certified nurse practitioner (TTS-NP) in a primary care setting 1-year postimplementation. Method. This program evaluation utilized retrospective electronic health record review and included thirty-three patients. The logic model served as a framework to define efficiency and effectiveness. Results. Patients were referred by a provider (57.6%), nurse (15.2%), or self (27.3). Patients opted for in-person initial visits (81.8%) more than virtual (18.2%). Of a total of 73 scheduled visits, 8 (11%) were no-showed. Patients who self-referred had the lowest no-show rate (5.6%) compared to those referred by a provider (12.8%) or nurse (12.5%). Of the patients included, 87.9% set a goal quit date. Average time until first and second follow-up was 34.6 and 130.4 days after goal quit date. Follow-up was defined as the date of the patient’s first message reply to the TTS-NP, or first visit following the goal quit date. A total of 51.9% (n = 14) and 63% (n = 17) reported cessation at the first and second follow-up. TTS-NP visit’s cost, independent of any other coverage, was less than other specialty visits in primary care. Conclusion. TTS-NP visits in primary care enabled patients to benefit from lower cost and longitudinal follow-up within a familiar setting. Over half of patients achieved cessation. Results of this program evaluation suggest support for TTS-certified providers in primary care.

Decision quality is often evaluated based on whether decision makers can adequately explain the decision process. Accountability often improves judgment quality because decision makers weigh and integrate information more thoroughly, but it could also hurt judgment processes by disrupting retrieval of previously encountered cases. We investigated to what degree process accountability motivates decision makers to shift from retrieval of past exemplars to rule-based integration processes. This shift may hinder accurate judgments in retrieval-based configural judgment tasks (Experiment 1) but may improve accuracy in elemental judgment tasks requiring weighing and integrating information (Experiment 2). In randomly selected trials, participants had to justify their judgments. Process accountability neither changed how accurately people made a judgment, nor the judgment strategies. Justifying the judgment process only decreased confidence in trials involving a justification. Overall, these results imply that process accountability may affect judgment quality less than expected.

Every day, people struggle to make healthy eating decisions. Nutrition labels have been used to help people properly balance the tradeoff between healthiness and taste, but research suggests that these labels vary in their effectiveness. Here, we investigated the cognitive mechanism underlying value-based decisions with nutrition labels as modulators of value.

More specifically, we used a binary decision task between products along with two different nutrition labels to examine how salient, color-coded labels, compared to purely information-based labels, alter the choice process. Using drift-diffusion modeling, we investigated whether color-coded labels alter the valuation process, or whether they induce a simple stimulus-response association consistent with the traffic-light colors irrespective of the features of the item, which would manifest in a starting point bias in the model. We show that color-coded labels significantly increased healthy choices by increasing the rate of preference formation (drift rate) towards healthier options without altering the starting point. Salient labels increased the sensitivity to health and decreased the weight on taste, indicating that the integration of health and taste attributes during the choice process is sensitive to how information is displayed. Salient labels proved to be more effective in altering the valuation process towards healthier, goal-directed decisions.