Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
×
Home

Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections

  • James E. Campbell (a1) and Joe A. Sumners (a2)

Abstract

Despite the diminished importance of partisanship, greater split-ticket voting, and a growth in Senate campaign spending, a party's presidential vote in the states remains positively related to its Senate vote in recent elections. We investigate to what extent presidential coattails are responsible for this association. State election returns for Senate and presidential contests are examined in presidential election years from 1972 to 1988. The analysis indicates that (1) presidential coattails exert a modest but significant influence on the Senate vote, probably affecting the election outcomes in twelve cases, and (2) partisanship remains a significant linkage between presidential and Senate elections.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. “Explaining Senate Election Outcomes.” American Political Science Review 82: 385403.
Barone, Michael, and Ujifusa, Grant. 1981. The Almanac of American Politics, 1982. Washington: Barone.
Barone, Michael, Ujifusa, Grant, and Matthews, Douglas. 1975. The Almanac of American Politics, 1976. New York: Dutton.
Barone, Michael, Ujifusa, Grant, and Matthews, Douglas. 1979. The Almanac of American Politics, 1980. New York: Dutton.
Bernstein, Robert A. 1977. “Divisive Primaries Do Hurt: U.S. Senate Races, 1956–1972.” American Political Science Review 71: 540–45.
Born, Richard. 1981. “The Influence of House Primary Divisiveness on General Election Margins 1962–1976.” Journal of Politics 42: 640–61.
Born, Richard. 1984. “Reassessing the Decline of Presidential Coattails: U.S. House Elections from 1952–80.” Journal of Politics 46: 6079.
Bullock, Charles S. III. 1988. “Regional Realignment from an Officeholding Perspective.” Journal of Politics 50: 553–74.
Bullock, Charles S. III, and Brady, David W.. 1983. “Party, Constituency, and Roll-Call Voting in the U.S. Senate.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 8: 2943.
Caldeira, Gregory A., Patterson, Samuel C., and Markko, Gregory A.. 1985. “The Mobilization of Voters in Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 47: 490509.
Calvert, Randall L., and Ferejohn, John A.. 1983. “Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections.” American Political Science Review 77: 407–19.
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.
Campbell, James E. 1986a. “Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections.” American Political Science Review 80: 4563.
Campbell, James E. 1986b. “Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails.” American Journal of Political Science 30: 165–83.
Campbell, James E., and Summers, Joe. 1989. “The Presidential Component of Senate Elections.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.
Converse, Philip E. 1966. “The Concept of the ‘Normal Vote’.” In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E. and Stokes, Donald E.. New York: Wiley.
Ehrenhalt, Alan, ed. 1983. Politics in America. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Ehrenhalt, Alan, ed. 1985. Politics in America. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Ehrenhalt, Alan, ed. 1987. Politics in America. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Fair, Ray C. 1988. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update.” Political Behavior 10: 168–79.
Ferejohn, John A., and Calvert, Randall L.. 1984. “Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective.” American Journal of Political Science 28: 127–46.
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P.. 1985. “Incumbency and Realignment in Congressional Elections.” In The New Direction in American Politics, ed. Chubb, John E. and Peterson, Paul E.. Washington: Brookings.
Green, Donald Philip, and Krasno, Jonathan S.. 1988. “Salvation for the Spendthrift Incumbent: Reestimating the Effects of Campaign Spending in House Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 32: 884907.
Hacker, Andrew. 1965. “Does a Divisive Primary Harm a Candidate's Election Chances?American Political Science Review 59: 105–10.
Hibbing, John R., and Alford, John R.. 1982. “Economic Conditions and the Forgotten Side of Congress: A Foray into U.S. Senate Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 12: 505–16.
Hinckley, Barbara. 1970. “Incumbency and the Presidential Vote in Senate Elections: Defining Parameters of Subpresidential Voting.” American Political Science Review 64: 836–42.
Hinckley, Barbara. 1980. “House Re-elections and Senate Defeats: The Role of the Challenger.” British Journal of Political Science 10: 441–60.
Hinckley, Barbara. 1981. Congressional Elections. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Jacobson, Gary. 1978. “The Effects of Campaign Spending in Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 72: 769–83.
Jacobson, Gary. 1980. Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Jacobson, Gary. 1987. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 2d ed.Boston: Little, Brown.
Kenney, Patrick J. 1988. “Sorting Out the Effects of Primary Divisiveness in Congressional and Senatorial Elections.” Western Political Quarterly 41: 765–77.
Kenney, Patrick J., and Rice, Thomas W.. 1987. “The Relationship between Divisive Primaries and General Election Outcomes.” American Journal of Political Science 31: 3144.
Key, V. O. Jr., 1958. Politics, Parties, and Pressure Croups. 4th ed.New York: Thomas E. Crowell.
Kostroski, Warren Lee. 1973. “Party and Incumbency in Postwar Senate Elections: Trends, Patterns, and Models.” American Political Science Review 67: 1213–34.
Lengle, James I. 1980. “Divisive Presidential Primaries and Party Electoral Prospects, 1932–1976.” American Politics Quarterly 8: 261–77.
Miller, Penny M., Jewell, Malcolm E., and Sigelman, Lee. 1988. “Divisive Primaries and Party Activists: Kentucky, 1979 and 1983.” Journal of Politics 50: 459–70.
Ornstein, Norman J., Mann, Thomas E., and Malbin, Michael. 1987. Vital Statistics on Congress, 1987–1988. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Petrocik, John R. 1987. “Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South.” Journal of Politics 49: 347–75.
Piereson, James E., and Smith, Terry B.. 1975. “Primary Divisiveness and General Election Success: A Re-examination.” Journal of Politics 37: 555–62.
Rabinowitz, George, Gurian, Paul-Henri, and McDonald, Stuart Elaine. 1984. “The Structure of Presidential Elections and the Process of Realignment, 1944 to 1980.” American Journal of Political Science 28: 612–34.
Radcliff, Benjamin. 1988. “Solving a Puzzle: Aggregate Analysis and Economic Voting Revisited.” Journal of Politics 50: 440–55.
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Scammon, Richard M., and McGillivry, Alice V.. 1988. America at the Polls 2. Washington: Congressional Quarterly.
Southwell, Priscilla. 1986. “The Politics of Disgruntlement: Nonvoting and Defection among Supporters of Nomination Losers, 1968–1984.” Political Behavior 8: 8195.
Stanley, Harold. 1988. “Southern Partisan Changes: Dealignment, Realignment, or Both?Journal of Politics 50: 6488.
Stewart, Charles III. 1987. “Towards a Model of Senate Elections in the States.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Charlotte.
Stokes, Donald E., and Miller, Warren E.. 1962. “Party Government and the Saliency of Congress.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26: 531–46.
Wright, Gerald C., and Berkman, Michael B.. 1986. “Candidates and Policy in U.S. Senate Elections.” American Political Science Review 80: 567–90.
Wright, Gerald C., Erikson, Robert S., and McIver, John P.. 1985. “Measuring State Partisanship and Ideology with Survey Data.” Journal of Politics 47: 469–89.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

American Political Science Review
  • ISSN: 0003-0554
  • EISSN: 1537-5943
  • URL: /core/journals/american-political-science-review
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed