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Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

  • Eric Martin (a1), Gérald Giraud (a1), Yves Lejeune (a1) and Géraldine Boudart (a1)

Abstract

The SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.

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References

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Annals of Glaciology
  • ISSN: 0260-3055
  • EISSN: 1727-5644
  • URL: /core/journals/annals-of-glaciology
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