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Frequency formats are a small part of the base rate story

  • Dale Griffin (a1), Derek J. Koehler (a2) and Lyle Brenner (a3)

Manipulations that draw attention to extensional or set-based considerations are neither sufficient nor necessary for enhanced use of base rates in intuitive judgments. Frequency formats are only one part of the puzzle of base-rate use and neglect. The conditions under which these and other manipulations promote base-rate use may be more parsimoniously organized under the broader notion of case-based judgment.

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L. Brenner , D. Griffin & D. J. Koehler (2005) Modeling patterns of probability calibration with Random Support Theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 97:6481.

V. Girotto & M. Gonzalez (2001) Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition 78:247–76.

M. A. Gluck & G. H. Bower (1988) From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:227–47.

D. Griffin & A. Tversky (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411–35.

D. Kahneman & S. Frederick (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51.

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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
  • ISSN: 0140-525X
  • EISSN: 1469-1825
  • URL: /core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences
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