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Article

The effect of base rate, careful analysis, and the distinction between decisions from experience and from description

  • Amos Schurr (a1) (a2) and Ido Erev (a1) (a2)
Abstract

Barbey & Sloman (B&S) attribute base-rate neglect to associative processes (like retrieval from memory) that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. This commentary notes that associative responses can also lead to base-rate overweighting. We suggest that the difference between the two patterns is related to the distinction between decisions from experience and decisions from description.

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COPYRIGHT: © Cambridge University Press 2007
References
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Bruner, J. S. & Minturn, A. L. (1955) Perceptual identification and perceptual organization. Journal of General Psychology 53:21–28.
Erev, I. & Barron, G. (2005) On adaptation, maximization and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies. Psychological Review 112(4):912–31.
Erev, I., Shimonowitch, D., Schurr, A. & Hertwig, R. (2007) Base rates: How to make the intuitive mind appreciate or neglect them. In: Intuition in judgment and decision making, ed. Plessner, H., Betsch, C. & Betsch, T., pp. 135–48. Erlbaum.
Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U. & Erev, I. (2004) Decisions from experience and the weighting of rare events. Psychological Science 15(8):534–539.
Kahneman, D. (2003) Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics. American Economic Review 93(5):1449–75.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences
  • ISSN: 0140-525X
  • EISSN: 1469-1825
  • URL: /core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences
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