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British Journal of Political Science British Journal of Political Science

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Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1999

KENNETH SCHEVE  and
MICHAEL TOMZ
KENNETH SCHEVE
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University
MICHAEL TOMZ
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University
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Abstract

Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue that surprise about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of votes experienced by the president's party in midterm congressional elections, and the systematic relationship between the party of the incoming president and macroeconomic performance. Scholars recently have begun conducting rigorous tests of the relationship between surprise and economic performance, but no similar empirical work exists on how surprise affects midterm elections. In this article, we offer the first direct test of the proposition that electoral surprise drives the midterm loss. Our analysis shows that the more surprised moderate voters are about the outcome of a presidential election, the lower the probability that they will support the president's party in the following midterm contest.

Type
Research Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 29 , Issue 3 , June 1999 , pp. 507 - 521
Copyright
© 1999 Cambridge University Press

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