Trends in the health status of the entire senior population aged 65 years or older in Manitoba were examined over a 14-year period (1985–1999) using administrative data (about 150,000 individuals). Significant health gains were apparent for a number of important indicators, including acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and hip fractures, although some of these gains were restricted to urban areas. Improvements in these health indicators are significant, as they can have major implications for individuals' need for health services and ability to live independently. In contrast, chronic diseases were on the rise, with the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and dementia increasing substantially over the 14-year period. These trends suggest a need for a policy emphasis on prevention, such as reducing the prevalence of obesity, which is one risk factor for diabetes. Moreover, having sufficient care options in place for the growing number of individuals with dementia is an issue that will have to be addressed.

This paper examines 16-year trends in the utilization of hospital and physician services by Manitobans aged 75 and more, using data from the Manitoba Population Health Research Data Repository. Trends are examined across five measures of hospital services (separations, short-stay days, long-stay days, cataract surgeries, and hip/knee replacements) and two measures of physician care (overall visit rate, and proportion having seven or more visits). Results show changes in the utilization of these services among older adults living in Manitoba over time, with the extent of change varying with the service under consideration, age, and location of residence. Previously large utilization differentials are shown to be shrinking; for example, cataract surgery rates across regions and physician visit rates by age. For other services, such as the rates of hip or knee replacement surgery, the differences across regions are increasing. Findings indicate that global generalizations about the impact of older adults on the health care system are subject to question, as regional differences and differences between age groups (75–84, 85+) can be significant.

Canadians have expressed concern that access to family physicians (FP) has declined. Anonymized physician services data for 1991/1992 to 2000/2001 were used to evaluate changes in supply and age-specific rates of use of FPs and specialists in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Physician-to-population ratios declined 7.5 per cent, FP-to-population ratios declined 4.8 per cent, and specialist-to-population ratios declined 10.0 per cent. Among the general population, FP visit rates declined 3 per cent. Among older adults, physician visit rates increased 2.3 per cent, FP visit rates increased 10.9 per cent, and specialist visit rates declined 15.7 per cent. By comparison, we document declines in FP use by those younger than 5 years (25.5%) and those 6 to 19 years of age (18.6%). Increases in FP and declines in specialist use occurred primarily among those aged 65 to 84 years. By 2000/2001 older adults accounted for 25 per cent of all FP encounters. Gains in FP use among older adults was less attributable to the presence of more seniors and more related to the fact that a higher proportion of them are visiting a FP each year and, potentially, substituting primary for secondary care.

Canadians have expressed concern that access to a family physician (FP) has declined precipitously. Yet FP-to-population ratios remained relatively stable over the last decade, and there were perceptions of physician surpluses, at least in urban centres, 10 years ago. We evaluated whether demographic changes among patients and FPs, and in the volume of care received and provided over the period, contribute to this paradox. Given the relationship between age and FP use in fiscal year 1991/1992, an aging population should have been associated with a 2 per cent increase in visits by 2000/2001. Likewise, given the relationship between FP age and workloads in 1991/1992, an aging workforce should have been associated with a 12 per cent increase in service provision a decade later. Yet visit rates and average FP workloads remained unchanged. There was an increase in age-specific rates of FP use among older adults and a decline in rates among the young, and an increase in age-specific workloads such that older FPs provided many more services than their predecessors (30%) and younger FPs provided many fewer (20%). In terms of impact on future requirements for FPs, both changes in age-specific rates of use, and changes in age-specific patterns of FP productivity, trump population aging as key drivers.

Cataract surgery is the highest-volume surgical procedure in Canada, with over 200,000 performed annually, mostly (85%) on persons aged 65 or older. Concerns have been raised about wait times to access this procedure. This study explores the relationship between waiting times for cataract surgery in Manitoba and a variety of characteristics, including age, sex, socio-economic status, region of residence, health status, surgeon, and surgeon's caseload. The study included 6,114 individuals who had first-eye cataract surgery between November 1, 1998, and March 31, 2000, in Winnipeg, MB. Significant predictors of variation in wait times were age, sex, having a hospitalization while waiting, and surgeon. The model explained 32.5 per cent of the variance in wait times; specific surgeon independently explained 29.5 per cent of the variance. Median waiting times varied widely by surgeon, ranging from 61 to 399 days. Differences in surgeons' expected wait times should be available to patients and referring clinicians.

Administrative home care data from the Manitoba Support Services Payroll (MSSP) system for fiscal years 1995/1996 to 1998/1999 were utilized to study home care client characteristics and changes in home care use over time. Patterns in home care access and use after hospitalization, before admission to a nursing home, and before death were examined. The study found that the majority of home care clients were female, aged 65 and over, and not married. The proportion of Manitobans using home care increased slowly, but significantly, over the 4 years. The greatest increases were found among the older age groups. The average number of days that clients received home care before death or before admission to a nursing home was stable over time, while a significant increase over time in home care use after hospitalization was experienced. These findings can be useful to regional health authorities for planning and budgeting.

Previous studies report geographic variation in the use of home care services. In the province of Manitoba, home care is a core service that Manitoba' twelve regional health authorities (RHAs) are obligated to deliver. Manitoba' RHAs range from remote northern and rural southern regions to a major city, resulting in different challenges for delivering home care. Given this potential for inconsistent delivery and the previous findings of regional variation in other settings, the objective of this study was to measure and assess variation in the use of home care across Manitoba' RHAs. We used data from the Provincial Home Care Program' client registry, other health care administrative databases, and Vital Statistics. Home care use was measured using multiple indicators, including rates of population use, use after hospitalization, before entry to a long-term care facility, and before death. While some important differences emerged, overall we found comparable use of home care across Manitoba.

Medication use is recognized as the least expensive, most cost-effective health care intervention. In older adults this is especially important, as they are the largest consumer of prescription medications. We describe the use of a linked data set including pharmaceutical, medical, and hospital claims to examine pharmaceutical use in the population of older adults and then give several examples of its application. Indicators to describe the population's overall use of medication and the appropriate use of specific medication have been developed. Indicators of appropriate use are characterized using the dispensation of benzodiazepines to older adults. We have found that a significant proportion of new users of benzodiazepines are still prescribed a long-acting version (over 10%), signifying potential inappropriate use. The data are also able to describe some significant outcomes from the use of pharmaceuticals such as death, fracture, and population-based clinical measures where available.

The effects of long-term hospitalizations can be severe, especially among older adults. In Manitoba, between fiscal years 1991/1992 and 1999/2000, 40 per cent of acute care hospital days were used by the 5 per cent of patients who had long stays, defined as stays of more than 30 days. These proportions were remarkably stable, despite major changes in the bed supply. Approximately two thirds of long-stay patients were aged 75 or older. Medical record review for a small sample of long-stay medical patients aged 75 or older revealed that 42 per cent of the days spent in hospital were spent either awaiting transfer to another level of care (home care, nursing home, or chronic care), or were due to in-hospital factors, such as awaiting consults, tests, or treatments. Hospital information systems and early discharge planning may help to alleviate lengthy discharge delays and result in better care for these patients.

Hospitalization is a sentinel event that leads to loss of independence for many seniors. This study of long-stay hospitalizations (more than 30 days) in seniors was undertaken to identify risk factors for not going home, to characterize patients with risk factors who did go home and to describe one year outcomes following home discharge. Using Manitoba's health care databases, the likelihood of death in hospital, discharge to a nursing home, and transfer to another hospital was determined for a set of risk factors in seniors with long-stay hospitalizations in Winnipeg's acute hospitals. Of the 17,984 long-stay hospitalizations during 1993–2000, 45 per cent were discharged home, 20 per cent died, and 30 per cent were discharged to a nursing home or another hospital. Seniors who received home care prior to hospitalization were more likely to be discharged to a nursing home or die in hospital than to go home. Stroke and cognitive impairment increased the likelihood of discharge to a nursing home. Seniors with neoplasms, multiple co-morbidities, and length-of-stay more than 120 days were more likely to die in hospital. Long-stay patients with risk factors who did go home had few co-morbidities. Within one year of home discharge, 20 per cent of seniors died, 5–15 per cent were admitted to a nursing home or long-term care institution, and 26–35 per cent of persons were re-hospitalized from home. A full 37 per cent experienced none of these outcomes. Our findings point to opportunities to improve discharge outcomes and plan support services for seniors.

Hospital overcrowding has plagued Winnipeg and other Canadian cities for years. This study explored factors related to overcrowding. Hospital files were used to examine patterns of hospital use from fiscal years 1996/1997 to 1999/2000. Chart reviews were conducted to examine appropriateness of admissions and hospital stays during one pressure week. Results indicate that pressure periods in the hospital system were driven by an influx of older adults with influenza-associated respiratory illnesses. Moreover, examination of one specific pressure week showed that at least 100 beds were occupied by patients who likely did not require acute care. The chart review revealed that a substantial proportion of non-acute patient-days were spent awaiting home care, long-term care, or diagnostic testing services. These findings suggest future bed pressures might be prevented through influenza vaccination and an increase in the availability of – and timely transfer to – alternative levels of care.

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).

This review evaluates the quality of available administrative data in the Canadian provinces, emphasizing the information needed to create integrated systems. We explicitly compare approaches to quality measurement, indicating where record linkage can and cannot substitute for more expensive record re-abstraction. Forty-nine original studies evaluating Canadian administrative data (registries, hospital abstracts, physician claims, and prescription drugs) are summarized in a structured manner. Registries, hospital abstracts, and physician files appear to be generally of satisfactory quality, though much work remains to be done. Data quality did not vary systematically among provinces. Primary data collection to check place of residence and longitudinal follow-up in provincial registries is needed. Promising initial checks of pharmaceutical data should be expanded. Because record linkage studies were “conservative” in reporting reliability, the reduction of time-consuming record re-abstraction appears feasible in many cases. Finally, expanding the scope of administrative data to study health, as well as health care, seems possible for some chronic conditions. The research potential of the information-rich environments being created highlights the importance of data quality.