Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T06:52:07.967Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

China's America Watchers: Changing Attitudes Towards the United States*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 February 2009

Extract

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has hundreds of analysts who interpret American policy for a Chinese audience. Some hold positions in government ministries, but many are in semi-official research institutes. These “America watchers” advise Chinese policy-makers and write internal papers which circulate among the top leadership. By influencing how China's leaders view the United States, they indirectly help shape policy. This article describes the community of America watchers and examines the theoretical orientations they use to understand international relations and to think about the United States. By surveying Chinese interpretations of Sino-U.S. relations during the 1990s, it seeks to evaluate how well China's America watchers understand the United States and assess their influence on Chinese foreign policy.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 2000

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. Shambaugh, David, Beautiful Imperialist: China Perceives America, 1972–1990 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), pp. 278–79.Google Scholar

2. Ibid. p. 283.

3. Ibid. pp. 7–16.

4. Ibid. p. 300.

5. U.S. China expertise is distributed widely among government agencies, civilian think-tanks and universities. In China, the best Americanists are mainly located in government ministries and research institutes, with university academics playing a smaller (but growing) role. Ibid. pp. 5–16, and Shambaugh, DavidChina's America watchers,” Problems of Communism, Vol. 37, No. 3–4 (0508 1988), pp. 7194.Google Scholar For information on the Chinese policy process, see Barnett, A. Doak, The Making of Foreign Policy in China: Structure and Process (Boulder: Westview Press, 1985)Google Scholar; Shambaugh, David, “China's national security research bureaucracy,” The China Quarterly, No. 110 (06 1987), pp. 276304Google Scholar; Ning, Lu, The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China (Boulder: Westview Press, 1997).Google Scholar

6. Harding, Harry, A Fragile Relationship (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992), p. 384.Google Scholar

7. Shambaugh, , Beautiful Imperialist, pp. 302303.Google Scholar

8. Chinese analysts feel Beautiful Imperialist was not a fair portrait. See Zhongyun, Zi, “Zhongguo de Meiguo yanjiu” (“China's America research”), Meiguo yanjiu (American Studies), Vol. 1, No. 1 (Spring 1987), pp. 720Google Scholar; Jisi, Wang, “The role of the United States as a global and pacific power: a view from China,” Pacific Review, Vol. 10, No. 1 (1997), pp. 118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

9. Shambaugh describes how debates created space for non-Marxist approaches in Beautiful Imperialist, pp. 4284Google Scholar; Zi Zhongyun stresses the impact of “practice as the sole criterion for testing truth” in “China's America research,” p. 16.Google Scholar

10. Chu Shulong, director of the Division for North American Studies at CICIR, received a doctorate from George Washington University. Wang Jisi, director of the IAS, has been a visiting fellow at Berkeley, Michigan and Oxford.

11. Ning, Lu, The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking, pp. 29, 130143.Google Scholar

12. Niu, Jin, “Zhongguo hai xu shuo shenme?” (“What more must China say?”), Meiguo daguan (American Spectacle), No. 10 (10 1996), pp. 8, 11.Google Scholar

13. Interview with American official in Beijing, July 1997; Sutter, Robert G., “China policy: crisis over Taiwan, 1995 – a post-mortem,” Congressional Research Service Report 95–1173F, 5 12 1995, pp. 56.Google Scholar

14. For a Chinese scholar's views, see Jisi, Wang, “International relations theory and the study of Chinese foreign policy: a Chinese perspective,” in Robinson, Thomas W. and Shambaugh, David (eds.), Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1995), pp. 481505.Google Scholar

15. Shambaugh, , Beautiful Imperialist, pp. 278–79Google Scholar and “The Soviet influence on China's worldview,” The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, No. 27 (01 1992), pp. 151–58.Google Scholar

16. Wang, Jianwei and Lin, Zhimin, “Chinese perceptions in the post-Cold War era: three images of the United States,” Asian Survey, Vol. 32, No. 10 (10 1992), pp. 902917.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

17. As materialist theories, both Marxism and realism emphasize the primacy of economics. They differ in their analysis of whether class interests or national interests drive state behaviour, but underlying similarities make it easy for Chinese analysts to move from Marxism to realism. See Gilpin, Robert, The Political Economy of International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987), pp. 2564.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

18. Zedong, Mao, “On the ten great relationships,” in Schram, Stuart (ed.), Chairman Mao Talks to the People (New York: Pantheon Books, 1974), pp. 6183.Google Scholar

19. Johnston, Alastair Iain, “Cultural realism and strategy in Maoist China,” in Katzenstein, Peter J. (ed.), The Culture of National Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), pp. 229236.Google Scholar

20. Translation difficulties exacerbate the problem of explaining engagement to Chinese audiences. Engagement was first translated as canyu (participation), with a neutral connotation. The current translation is jiechu (contact), with a more negative connotation. Jiaowang, a more neutral form of contact, is also used.

21. Yinliang, Ni, “Meiguo Engagement yin han ezhi chengfen” (“U.S. ‘Engagement’ contains a hidden element of containment”), Jiefang ribao (Liberation Daily), 11 01 1996, p. 4.Google Scholar

22. For references, see Jun, Niu, “Lun Kelindun zhengfu di yi renqi dui hua zhengce de yanbian jiqi tedian” (“The evolution and characteristics of the Clinton administration's China policy in its first term”), Meiguo yanjiu, Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 78.Google Scholar

23. Shulong, Chu, “Sino-U.S. relations: the necessity for change and a new strategy,” Contemporary International Relations, Vol. 6, No. 11 (11 1996), p. 2Google Scholar; and in Lin, Feng (ed.), Zhongguo ershiyi shiji da yuce (China: Predictions for the 21st Century) (Beijing: Reform Publishing House, 1996), p. 428.Google Scholar

24. Jisi, Wang, “‘Ezhi’ haishi ‘jiaowang’? Ping lengzhanhou Meiguo dui hua zhengce” (“‘Containment’ or ‘engagement’? Reviewing post-Cold War U.S. policy towards China”), Guoji guanxi (International Relations), 01 1996, pp. 16.Google Scholar

25. Shulong, Chu in Lin, Feng, China: Predictions for the 21st Century, pp. 428–29Google Scholar; Haihan, Wang, “Lun Kelindun zhengfu de dui hua zhengce jiqi qianjing” (“On Clinton administration's China policy and its future trend”), Guoji wenti yanjiu (International Studies), No. 1 (1997), pp. 39.Google Scholar

26. Also see Yang, George, “Mechanisms of foreign policy-making and implementation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” in Hamrin, Carol Lee and Zhao, Suisheng (eds.), Decision-Making in Deng's China: Perspectives from Insiders (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1995), p. 92.Google Scholar

27. Shouyuan, Li, “‘Lengzhan siwei’ yu lengzhanhou Meiguo de dui hua zhengce” (“‘Cold War mentality’ and post-Cold War American foreign policy”), Waijiao xueyuan xuebao (Foreign Affairs College Journal), No. 3 (1996), pp. 1923.Google Scholar

28. Johnston, Alastair Iain, Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995)Google Scholar and “Cultural realism and strategy”; Christensen, Thomas J., “Chinese realpolitik,” Foreign Affairs (09/10 1996), pp. 3751Google Scholar; Whiting, Allen S., “IR theory versus the fortune cookie,”Google Scholar in Robinson, and Shambaugh, , Chinese Foreign Policy, pp. 506523Google Scholar; Roy, Denny, China's Foreign Relations (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

29. Johnston, , Cultural Realism.Google Scholar

30. Hunt, Michael H., The Genesis of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), pp. 328.Google Scholar

31. Christensen, , “Chinese realpolitik.”Google Scholar

32. Waltz, Kenneth N., Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House, 1979).Google Scholar

33. Unlike Waltz, Chinese analysts view multipolarity as more stable than bipolarity. Xinbo, Wu, “China: security practice of a modernizing and ascending power,” in Alagappa, Muthiah (ed.), Asian Security Practice: Material and Ideational Influences (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), pp. 115156.Google Scholar

34. The schools differ in their analysis of motivations for hegemony, with realists emphasizing state interests and Marxists emphasizing class interests. Because both argue hegemony should be resisted by seeking any available allies, analytical differences lead to the same policy prescriptions.

35. Jisi, Wang, “The role of the United States,” pp. 46.Google Scholar

36. Shulong, Chu, “Sino-U.S. Relations,” p. 8.Google Scholar

37. Guifu, Wu in Lin, Feng, China: Predictions for the 21st Century, p. 479.Google Scholar

38. Hsiung, James C., “China's omni-directional diplomacy,” Asian Survey, Vol. 35, No. 6 (06 1995), pp. 573586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

39. Cited in Wang, and Lin, , “Chinese perceptions in the post-Cold War era,” p. 912.Google Scholar

40. Moore, Thomas G., “Learning on the job: China in a regionalizing/globalizing world economy,” paper presented at the Association of Asian Studies annual meeting, 13 03 1999.Google Scholar

41. Saunders, Phillip C., “Supping with a long spoon: dependence and interdependence in Sino-U.S. relations,” The China Journal, No. 43 (01 2000), pp. 5581.Google Scholar

42. Robinson, Thomas W., “Interdependence in China's foreign relations,” in Kim, Samuel S. (ed.), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Relations in the Post-Cold War Era (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 187201.Google Scholar

43. Yahuda, Michael, “How much has China learned about interdependence?” in Goodman, David S.G. and Segal, Gerald (eds.), China Rising: Nationalism and Interdependence (New York: Routledge, 1997), p. 7.Google Scholar

44. James Mann argues Chinese leaders frequently increased their negotiating leverage by appealing to opposition party leaders. About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999).Google Scholar

45. Zuckerman, Mortimer B., Lawrence, Susan V. and MacFarquhar, Emily, “Jiang Zemin on Bill Clinton, Taiwan, his leadership, and Deng Xiaoping,” U.S. News and World Report, 23 10 1995, p. 72Google Scholar; Slavin, Barbara, “China has long sought influence,” USA Today, 24 03 1997, p. 12A.Google Scholar

46. Jun, Niu, “Evolution and characteristics,” pp. 1217Google Scholar; Yong, Wang, “Shilun liyi jituan zai Meiguo dui hua zhengce de yingxiang” (“The influence of interest groups on U.S. China policy: a case study of the MFN issue”), Meiguo yanjiu, No. 2 (1998), pp. 6091.Google Scholar

47. Jisi, Wang, “Shiji zhiwai de ZhongMei guanxi” (“Sino-U.S. relations at the turn of the century”), Meiguo yanjiu, No. 2 (1997), p. 136.Google Scholar

48. Jencks, Harlan W., “Chinese evaluations of ‘Desert Storm’: implications for PRC security,” Journal of East Asian Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Summer-Fall 1992), pp. 447477Google Scholar; Shambaugh, David, “China's military: real or paper tiger?Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Spring 1996), pp. 2529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

49. China's defence budget and PLA modernization efforts are the subject of considerable debate. Some analysts emphasize expanding PLA budgets and suggest PLA capabilities are increasing rapidly. Others note inflation and efforts to improve PLA living standards account for much of the budget increases. Shambaugh, , “China's military,” pp. 1923Google Scholar; Roy, Denny, “The China threat issue: major arguments,” Asian Survey, Vol. 36, No. 8 (08 1996), pp. 759764.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

50. Pillsbury, Michael, Dangerous Chinese Misperceptions: The Implications for DOD (Washington, D.C.: Office of Net Assessment, 1997), p. 11.Google Scholar

51. The communiqué is in Harding, , A Fragile Relationship, p. 384.Google Scholar

52. For U.S. deliberations on the F-16 sale, see Mann, , About Face, pp. 264271.Google Scholar

53. A former PLA officer noted both international and domestic motivations, including “the intention to keep China in check by building up the Taiwanese arsenal.” Lee, Thomas C., “Perspectives on U.S. sales of F-16 to Taiwan,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 2, No. 1 (1993), p. 88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

54. Lampton, David M., “America's China policy in the age of the finance minister: Clinton ends linkage,” The China Quarterly, No. 138 (09 1994), pp. 611–14.Google Scholar

55. Shulong, Chu, “Sino-U.S. Relations,” p. 2.Google Scholar

56. Christopher evidently tried to warn Qian that Congressional pressure might force a change in policy. Christopher, Warren, In the Stream of History (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), pp. 286–88.Google Scholar

57. Reuther, David, “Congress resurgent: Taiwan President Lee's trip to Cornell University,” paper presented at Pacific Affairs Study Society, George Washington University, 24 04 1998Google Scholar; Mann, , About Face, pp. 315330.Google Scholar

58. Mann, , About Face, p. 324.Google Scholar

59. Laris, Michael, “China protests Taiwan leader's visit to U.S.,” The Washington Post, 24 05 1995, p. A27.Google Scholar

60. The “eight points” included reunification under the “one country, two systems” formula, but promised Taiwan a high degree of autonomy, including the right to retain its own armed forces. The specifics were not new, but the tone was more conciliatory. Garver, , Face Off, pp. 4144.Google Scholar

61. Shambaugh, David, “Containment or engagement of China? Calculating Beijing's responses,” International Security Vol. 21, No. 2 (Fall 1996), pp. 190191CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Garver, , Face Off, pp. 6062Google Scholar; Lampton, David M., “China and Clinton's America: have they learned anything?Asian Survey, Vol. 37, No. 12 (12 1997), p. 1107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

62. Also see Sutter, , “China policy.”Google Scholar

63. Gellman, Barton, “U.S. and China nearly came to blows in '96,” Washington Post, 21 06 1998, p. A1.Google Scholar

64. Qimao, Chen, “Crisis in the Taiwan Strait and its international implications,” lecture at Princeton University, 6 03 1996.Google Scholar

65. Shulong, Chu, “Sino-U.S. relations,” p. 3.Google Scholar

66. Chu Shulong distinguished between China's internal and external behaviour, arguing that because the missile tests were internal affairs other Asian countries should not feel threatened. “Yatai diqu anquan guan, anquan jiegou he anquan zhanlüe” (“Security in the Asia-Pacific region: concepts, structure and strategy”), Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations), No. 91 (05 1997), p. 7.Google Scholar

67. Garrett, Banning and Glaser, Bonnie, “Chinese apprehensions about revitalization of the U.S.-Japan alliance,” Asian Survey, Vol. 37, No. 4 (04 1997), p. 385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

68. An American defence official stated privately that planning for airstrikes against North Korean nuclear facilities initially raised the issue of Japanese support for U.S. military operations. This examination, combined with a desire to rebuild security relations after economic tensions and crimes by American soldiers, prompted efforts to upgrade defence co-operation. See Ennis, Peter, “The ‘Nye Initiative’: can it save the U.S.-Japan security alliance?” Tokyo Business Today, 06 1995, p. 38 (in Lexis/Nexis).Google Scholar

69. Christensen, , “Chinese realpolitikGoogle Scholar; Garret, and Glaser, , “Chinese apprehensions about revitalization”Google Scholar; Montaperto, Ronald N. and Binnendijk, Hans, “PLA views on Asia Pacific security in the 21st century,” National Defense University Strategic Forum, No. 114 (06 1997).Google Scholar

70. Christensen, , Chinese realpolitik, pp. 41, 44Google Scholar; Christensen, Thomas J., “China, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and the security dilemma in East Asia,” International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring 1999), p. 4980.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

71. Yinhong, Shi, in “Scholars refute book's views on U.S.-China relations,” Beijing Review, 2 06 1997, p. 10.Google Scholar This is similar to views in Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kennedy, Paul M., The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (New York: Random House, 1987).Google Scholar

72. Zhang, Ming, “Public images of the United States,” in Deng, Yong and Wang, Fei-Ling (eds.), In the Eyes of the Dragon (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999), pp. 141158.Google Scholar

73. Yue, Ren, “China's perceived image of the United States: its sources and impact,” in Koehn, Peter and Cheng, Joseph Y.S. (eds.), The Outlook for U.S.-China Relations following the 1997–1998 Summits (Hong Kong: Chinese University Press, 1999), p. 252.Google Scholar

74. Lampton, , “China and Clinton's America,” p. 1104.Google Scholar

75. Shambaugh, , “Containment or engagement”Google Scholar; Garver, , Face Off.Google Scholar

76. Garver, , Face Off, pp. 7071, 112Google Scholar; Sutter, , “China policy,” p. 5.Google Scholar

77. Jisi, Wang, “‘Containment’ or ‘engagement’?”Google Scholar; Shulong, Chu, “Sino-U.S. relations.”Google Scholar

78. Garver, , Face Off, pp. 111–17Google Scholar; Lampton, , “China and Clinton's America,” p. 1104.Google Scholar

79. Gellman, , “U.S. and China nearly came to blows in '96,” p. A1.Google Scholar

80. Bernstein, Richard and Munro, Ross H., The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1997).Google Scholar

81. Chu Shulong explains “co-operative security” in “Security in the Asia-Pacific region,” pp. 27.Google Scholar

82. Garret, Banning and Glaser, Bonnie, “China works on its design for a new Asian security structure,” International Herald Tribune, 28 06 1997, p. 6Google Scholar; Montaperto, and Binnendijk, , “PLA views on Asia Pacific security.”Google Scholar

83. Saunders, , “Supping with a long spoon.”Google Scholar

84. Bachman, David “Structure and process in the making of Chinese foreign policy,” in Kim, Samuel S. (ed.), China and the World (4th ed.) (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), pp. 3739.Google Scholar

85. Li actually did visit the United States for a United Nations meeting in February 1992, when he briefly met President Bush in New York.

86. Gellman, , “U.S. and China nearly came to blows in '96,” p. A1Google Scholar and “Reappraisal led to new China policy,” Washington Post, 22 06 1998, p. A1Google Scholar; Lampton, , “China and Clinton's America,” pp. 1108–11.Google Scholar

87. Jun, Niu, “Evalution and characteristics,” p. 18.Google Scholar

88. Mann, , About Face, pp. 330, 355–59, 366.Google Scholar

89. Ge, Su, “Sino-American ‘constructive strategic partnership’Google Scholar: basis, contents, and future scenarios,” paper presented at the Hong Kong-America Center International Symposium on China-USA relations, 28–29 May 1998 and Xinghao, Ding, “Basis for a constructive strategic partnership between China and the United States,”Google Scholar in Koehn, and Cheng, , Outlook for U.S.-China Relations, p. 158.Google Scholar

90. Yebai, Zhang, “Can a ‘constructive strategic partnership’Google Scholar be built up between China and the United States?” in Koehn, and Cheng, , Outlook for U.S.-China Relations, pp. 141156.Google Scholar

91. Xianhong, Jin, “The coming cooperation with China,”Google Scholar paper presented at the Hong Kong-America Center International Symposium on China-USA relations, 28–29 May 1998.

92. Xinghao, Ding, “Basis for a constructive strategic partnership,” p. 162.Google Scholar

93. Yimin, Song, “Bingwei gaibian duojihua jin yi bu fazhan qushi” (“Temporary accomplishments of the United States have not changed the further development of the trend of multipolarization”) Guoji wenti yanjiu, No. 1 (1998), pp. 710.Google Scholar

94. See Chengxu, Yang, “Zhengzai xingcheng zhong de duojihua shijie” (“The emerging multipolar world”), Guoji guancha (International Observer), No. 1 (1998), pp. 14Google Scholar; Jisi, Wang, “Gaochu bu shenghan: lengzhanhou Meiguo de shijie diwei chutan” (“Lonely at the top: a reassessment of America's power position in the world”), Meiguo yanjiu, No. 3 (1997), pp. 738.Google Scholar

95. Bingxi, Zhen, “Meiguo ‘xin jingji’ jiqu dui shijie jingji de yingxiang” (“The ‘new economy’ in the United States and its impacts to the world economy”), Guoji wenti yanjiu, No. 3 (1998), pp. 4246.Google Scholar

96. Michael Swaine identifies three groups within the PLA: a majority that supports a cautious approach to the West, a small minority that supports better relations and political liberalization, and a large and growing minority that believes the U.S. seeks to weaken China. China: Domestic Change and Foreign Policy, pp. 3134.Google Scholar

97. For PLA threat perceptions, see Shambaugh, David, “The insecurity of security: the PLA's evolving doctrine and threat perceptions towards 2000,” Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Spring 1994), pp. 325Google Scholar; Whiting, Allen S., “The PLA and China's threat perceptions,” The China Quarterly, No. 146 (06 1996), pp. 596615.Google Scholar