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Population Policy and Trends in China, 1978–83*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Judith Banister
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Extract

The period 1978–83 saw swift escalation of earlier policies to promote rapid fertility decline in China. The government attempted to remove pronatalist economic incentives and replace them with economic benefits to one-child families and economic penalties for those bearing two or more children. China's family planning programme became increasingly compulsory in tone and coercive in methods. The single-minded pursuit of low fertility and low population growth rates has thus far been successful, though an effective political reaction against the policy is possible in the future. Meanwhile, the field of demography, the scientific study of population, has once again become respectable in China and the country's demographers are gaining rapidly in sophistication. After three decades of statistical secrecy, the government has begun to release relatively detailed demographic data, thus greatly increasing world understanding of China's population situation.

Type
The Readjustment in the Chinese Economy
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 100 , December 1984 , pp. 717 - 741
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1984

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References

1. Barclay, George W., Coale, Ansley J., Stoto, Michael A., and Trussell, T. James, “A reassessment of the demography of traditional rural China,” Population Index, Vol. 42, No. 4 (10 1976), pp. 606–635CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Crude measures of fertility and mortality are the crude birth rate and the crude death rate, defined as the number of births or deaths per 1,000 population. The natural population increase rate is the difference between the birth and death rates. More refined measures are not strongly influenced by the population age structure. These include the total fertility rate, which is the number of live births the average woman would have in her lifetime if she followed the current pattern of fertility at each age. and the expectation of life at birth, which is the average number of years lived by a population experiencing the mortality rates typical at each age.

2. For details on health and mortality trends in China, see Banister, Judith, China's Changing Population (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, forthcoming 1985), Chs 2, 3 and 4Google Scholar.

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4. Estimates for China's infant mortality rate must still be given in a broad range because of the poor quality and coverage of china's data on infrant mortality. For compilation and analysis of the available infant mortality data to date, see Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Ch. 4. The high infant mortality estimate for 1929–31 could be correct, but also may be higher than China's infant mortality rate during the more prosperous centuries of rule by the last two dynasties. The very high mortality estimated for China in 1929–31 might typify the chaotic periods during and after the fall of dynasties in the past.

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6. The 1953 figure is based on a more inclusive definition of “urban place” than the 1964 and 1978 figures. The extent to which these three urban population figures are comparable Data sources: State Statistical Bureau (SSB), “Communiqué of results of China's population,” Current Background, No. 301 (1 11 1954). p. 2Google Scholar. SSB, “Communiqué on 1982 census,” Foreign Broadcast Information Service Daily Report China (FBIS), No. 208 (27 10 1982), p. K3Google Scholar. TJZY 1983. p. 13. For a compilation and analysis of data on population distribution, internal migration, and urbanization, see Judith Banister. China's Changing Population, Ch. 9.

7. Socio-economic determinants of fertility in China are discussed in Judith Banister. China's Changing Population, Ch. 5.

8. State Family Planning Commission, “Communiqué on the 0.1 per cent sample fertility survey of China's population,” Renkou yanjiu (Population Research), No. 3 (1983), p. 14Google Scholar.

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20. For a report placing China's family planning programme in the context of others that include incentives and disincentives, see Jacobsen, Judith. Promoting Population Stabilization: Incentives for Small Families (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 1983). Worldwatch Paper No. 54Google Scholar.

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23. Mathews, Jay. “One-child family plan pushed by Chinese.” Sunday Star-Bulletin and Advertiser (Honolulu). 2 03 1980, p. A–23 (Washington Post Service). Documentation of required signatures on one-child pledges is given in Judith Banister.China's Changing Population. Chs 7 and 10Google Scholar.

24. Du, Cheng. “China's population, some problems and their solutions.” Wuhan daxue xuebao, shehui kexue ban (Wuhan University Journal, Social Sciences Edition), No. 3 (1981), p. 8Google Scholar.

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28. The development of the production responsibility system in agriculture and its effect on fertility incentives are discussed in Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Chs 5, 7 and 10; and Judith Banister, “China's 1982 census and the decade beyond,” in Ginsburg, Norton and Lalor, Bernard A. (eds.), China: The 80s Era, pp. 173–91Google Scholar.

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33. See for example, “Combine family planning with the production responsibility system,” Renmin ribao, 16 June 1981, p. 3; “Implement the ‘double guarantee contract system’ and persist in ‘simultaneously grasping the two kinds of production,’” Jiankangbao (Health Gazette), 23 August 1981, p. 1; “How should Zhejiang province grasp this year's economic work?,” Zhejiang ribao (Zhejiang Daily), 31 January 1982, p. 3; “Make new contributions towards the accomplishment of Shandong province's family planning task this year,” Dazhong ribao, 15 February 1982, pp. 1, 4; “Attention must be paid to family planning in rural areas,” Beijing radio, Beijing Domestic Service, 20 April 1982, FBIS, No. 77 (21 04 1982), pp. K11–K12Google Scholar.

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36. State Family Planning Commission, “Communiqué on the 0·1 per cent sample,” p. 15Google Scholar.

37. Utilization of abortion in China is documented in Lizhong, Zhang, “Birth control and late marriage,” in Zheng, Liu et al. , China's Population: Problems and Prospects (Beijing, 1981), p. 113Google Scholar; and Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Chs 6 and 7.

38. “Vice-governor Wang Pingshan answers a reporter on the questions concerning policies on birth control techniques and childbearing,” Nanfang ribao (Southern Daily), 15 May 1983, p. 2.

39. “The nationwide family planning propaganda month achieved great success and good results,” Jiankangbao, 27 February 1983, p. 1; and “Qian Xinzhong on family size,” Beijing radio, Beijing Domestic Service, 27 02 1983Google Scholar; FBIS, No. 43 (3 03 1983), p. K11Google Scholar.

40. “Marriage Law Adopted by Fifth National People's Congress,” Xinhua Beijing Domestic Service, 15 09 1980Google Scholar; FBIS, No. 184 (19 09 1980), p. L22Google Scholar. For discussion of the causes and results of this policy shift, see Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Ch. 6.

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42. State Family Planning Commission, “Communiqué on the 0·1 per cent sample,” p. 14.

43. Documentation and discussion of this problem are found in Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Ch. 8.

44. Discussed in Judith Banister, “China's 1982 census and the decade beyond.” Reported 1981 births from the census were more complete for male than female births, as indicated by the high sex ratio of 108·5 male births per hundred female births reported.

45. “Communiqué on fulfilment of China's 1982 national economic plan,”TJZY 1983, p. 112.

46. “Population drive gains declared significant,” China Daily, 9 February 1983, p. 1.

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48. Recent health and mortality trends are documented in Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Chs 3 and 4.

49. “Health Minister Qian outlines 1982 tasks,” Xinhua (Beijing), 3 02 1982Google Scholar; FBIS, No. 24 (4 02 1982), p. K19Google Scholar

50. Documented in Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Chs. 7 and 10.

51. Based on the assumption that China's sex ratio at birth is about 106 males per hundred females. Sex ratios of young children from the census were reported in “SSB Director Li Chengrui points out that the sex ratio of China's newborns and infants is normal.” Jiangkangbao, 21 April 1983, p. 1.

52. The migration streams, policy struggles, and policy changes mentioned here are detailed and documented in Judith Banister, China's Changing Population, Ch. 9.

53. “National meeting on training educated youth in countryside,” Xinhua, Beijing (24 01 1978)Google Scholar; FBIS, No. 16 (24 01 1978), p. E18Google Scholar; “Educated youth to be shifted from communes to collective farms,” Xinhua (Beijing), 2 11 1979Google Scholar; FBIS, No. 217 (7 11 1979), p. L12Google Scholar.

54. For further information on urban unemployment, see Emerson, John Philip, “Urban school-leavers and unemployment in China,” The China Quarterly (CQ), No. 93 (03 1983), pp. 1–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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