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Accepted manuscript

Investigation on the control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: number of infections outside hospitals and the reproduction number

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 June 2022

Yongxue Chen
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China School of Physical Sciences, University of California, Irvine, 92697, USA
Hui Zhang
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China
Jingyu Wang
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China
Cheng Li
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China
Ning Yi
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China
Yongxian Wen*
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, P.R.China
*
*Corresponding author. Email address: 32237530@qq.com
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Abstract

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COVID-19 is erupting globally and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses are implemented and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on Jan.20 is about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown, it exceeded 72000 on Feb.4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which is over 2.5 in early January, then go down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after Feb.11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures and Ark hospitals are the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. Two inflection points of COVID-19 in Wuhan exactly correspond to Feb.5 and Feb.15, the two days when Ark hospitals were introduced and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity also is discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75 percent can COVID-19 be under control, group immunity actually would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220,000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30 percent of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent hand-washing, can effectively contain COVID-19. But only when this proportion is over 60 percent can the control effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.

Type
Original Research
Copyright
© 2022 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
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