Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

Effect of environmental factors on the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza spread

  • K. M. L. CHARLAND (a1) (a2) (a3) (a4), D. L. BUCKERIDGE (a2), J. L. STURTEVANT (a1) (a5), F. MELTON (a6) (a7), B. Y. REIS (a1) (a3) (a4), K. D. MANDL (a1) (a3) (a4) and J. S. BROWNSTEIN (a1) (a3) (a4)...
Abstract
SUMMARY

Although spatio-temporal patterns of influenza spread often suggest that environmental factors play a role, their effect on the geographical variation in the timing of annual epidemics has not been assessed. We examined the effect of solar radiation, dew point, temperature and geographical position on the city-specific timing of epidemics in the USA. Using paediatric in-patient data from hospitals in 35 cities for each influenza season in the study period 2000–2005, we determined ‘epidemic timing’ by identifying the week of peak influenza activity. For each city we calculated averages of daily climate measurements for 1 October to 31 December. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to assess the strength of association between each variable and epidemic timing. Of the climate variables only solar radiation was significantly related to epidemic timing (95% CI −0·027 to −0·0032). Future studies may elucidate biological mechanisms intrinsically linked to solar radiation that contribute to epidemic timing in temperate regions.

Copyright
Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Dr K. M. L. Charland, 1 Autumn Street, Room 439, Boston, MA 02215, USA. (Email: Katia.Charland@childrens.harvard.edu)
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

1. CA Russell , The global circulation of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Science 2008; 320: 340346.

4. WJ Alonso , Seasonality of influenza in Brazil: a traveling wave from the Amazon to the subtropics. American Journal of Epidemiology 2007; 165: 14341442.

5. IV Polozov , Progressive ordering with decreasing temperature of phospholipids of influenza virus. Nature Chemical Biology 2007; 4: 248255.

6. AC Lowen , Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathogens 2007; 3: e151.

8. AC Lowen , High temperature (30°C) blocks aerosol but not contact transmission of influenza virus. Journal of Virology 2008; 82: 56505652.

9. J-L Sagripanti , CD Lytle . Inactivation of influenza virus by solar radiation. Photochemistry and Photobiology 2007; 83: 12781282.

11. V Srinivasan , Melatonin, environmental light and breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment 2008; 108: 339350.

12. A Carrillo-Vico , A review of the multiple actions of melatonin on the immune system. Endocrine 2005; 27: 189200.

13. D Vondrašová , I Hájek , H Illnerová . Exposure to long summer days affects the human melatonin and cortisol rhythms. Brain Research 1997; 759: 166170.

18. FT Chew , Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics. Epidemiology and Infection 1998; 121: 121128.

19. N Marsden-Haug , Code-based syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision. Emerging Infectious Disease 2007; 13: 207216.

23. C Viboud , Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 2006; 312: 447451.

24. DR Olson , Monitoring the impact of influenza by age: emergency department fever and respiratory complaint surveillance in New York City. PloS Medicine 2007; 4: 13491361.

26. JS Brownstein , KD Mandl . Pediatric population size is associated with geographic patterns of acute respiratory infections among adults. Annals Emergency Medicine 2008; 52: 6368.

30. YK Tu , Problems of correlations between explanatory variables in multiple regression analyses in the dental literature. British Dental Journal 2005; 199: 457461.

35. T Sakai , Geographic and temporal trends in influenza-like illness, Japan, 1992–1999. Emerging Infectious Disease 2004; 10: 18221826.

36. JS Brownstein , CJ Wolfe , KD Mandl . Empirical evidence for the effect of airline travel on inter-regional influenza spread in the United States. PLoS Medicine 2006; 3: e401.

38. DM Fleming , Respiratory illness associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Archives of Disease in Childhood 2005; 90: 741746.

39. CM Liu , Temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza A H5N1 virus outbreaks. PLoS One 2007; 2: e191.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords: