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Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: a stochastic model

  • A. A. HILL (a1), E. L. SNARY (a1), M. E. ARNOLD (a1), L. ALBAN (a2) and A. J. C. COOK (a1)...
Summary

Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

Copyright
COPYRIGHT: © Cambridge University Press 2007
Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Mr A. A. Hill, Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, VLA Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK. (Email: a.hill@vla.defra.gsi.gov.uk)
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Epidemiology & Infection
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  • EISSN: 1469-4409
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