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Epidemiology & Infection Epidemiology & Infection

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Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2008

D. E. NOYOLA  and
P. B. MANDEVILLE
D. E. NOYOLA*
Affiliation:
Microbiology Department Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., México
P. B. MANDEVILLE
Affiliation:
Laboratorio de Informática, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., México
*
*Author for correspondence: D. E. Noyola, M.D., Microbiology Department, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, Avenida V. Carranza 2405, Col. Los Filtros, 78210 San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., México. (Email: dnoyola@uaslp.mx)
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Summary

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Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections between October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49·8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32·5% was explained by the study week and 17·3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics.

Type
Original Papers
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 136 , Issue 10 , October 2008 , pp. 1328 - 1332
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Cambridge University Press

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