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Farra, Alain Pagonendji, Marilou Manikariza, Alexandre Rawago, Dieubéni Ouambita-Mabo, Rock Guifara, Gilbert and Gouandjika-Vasilache, Ionela 2016. Epidemiology of primary rubella infection in the Central African Republic: data from measles surveillance, 2007–2014. BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 16, Issue. 1,
Thompson, Kimberly M. 2016. Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis. Risk Analysis, Vol. 36, Issue. 7, p. 1383.
Vynnycky, Emilia Yoshida, Lay Myint Huyen, Dang Thi Thanh Trung, Nguyen Dac Toda, Kohei Cuong, Nguyen Van Thi Hong, Duong Ariyoshi, Koya Miyakawa, Masami Moriuchi, Hiroyuki Tho, Le Huu Nguyen, Hien Anh Duc Anh, Dang Jit, Mark and Hien, Nguyen Tran 2016. Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam. Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, Vol. 12, Issue. 1, p. 150.
Wesolowski, Amy Mensah, Keitly Brook, Cara E. Andrianjafimasy, Miora Winter, Amy Buckee, Caroline O. Razafindratsimandresy, Richter Tatem, Andrew J. Heraud, Jean-Michel and Metcalf, C. Jessica E. 2016. Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 13, Issue. 117, p. 20151101.
Chimhuya, Simbarashe Manangazira, Portia Mukaratirwa, Arnold Nziramasanga, Pasipanodya Berejena, Chipo Shonhai, Annie Kamupota, Mary Gerede, Regina Munyoro, Mary Mangwanya, Douglas Tapfumaneyi, Christopher Byabamazima, Charles Shibeshi, Eshetu Messeret and Nathoo, Kusum Jackison 2015. Trends of rubella incidence during a 5-year period of case based surveillance in Zimbabwe. BMC Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue. 1,
Kraemer, M. U. G. Perkins, T. A. Cummings, D. A. T. Zakar, R. Hay, S. I. Smith, D. L. and Reiner, R. C. 2015. Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 12, Issue. 111, p. 20150468.
Wesolowski, Amy Metcalf, C. J. E. Eagle, Nathan Kombich, Janeth Grenfell, Bryan T. Bjørnstad, Ottar N. Lessler, Justin Tatem, Andrew J. and Buckee, Caroline O. 2015. Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue. 35, p. 11114.
Rozhnova, G. Metcalf, C. J. E. and Grenfell, B. T. 2013. Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 10, Issue. 88, p. 20130643.
Black, Andrew J. and McKane, Alan J. 2012. Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 27, Issue. 6, p. 337.
Metcalf, C. J. E. Cohen, C. Lessler, J. McAnerney, J. M. Ntshoe, G. M. Puren, A. Klepac, P. Tatem, A. Grenfell, B. T. and Bjornstad, O. N. 2012. Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 10, Issue. 78, p. 20120756.
Metcalf, C.J.E. Lessler, J. Klepac, P. Morice, A. Grenfell, B.T. and Bjørnstad, O.N. 2012. Structured models of infectious disease: Inference with discrete data. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 82, Issue. 4, p. 275.
O’Neill, P.D. and Wen, C.H. 2012. Modelling and inference for epidemic models featuring non-linear infection pressure. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 238, Issue. 1, p. 38.
Ferrari, Matthew J. Perkins, Sarah E. Pomeroy, Laura W. and Bjørnstad, Ottar N. 2011. Pathogens, Social Networks, and the Paradox of Transmission Scaling. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, Vol. 2011, p. 1.
The factors underlying the temporal dynamics of rubella outside of Europe and North America are not well known. Here we used 20 years of incidence reports from Mexico to identify variation in seasonal forcing and magnitude of transmission across the country and to explore determinants of inter-annual variability in epidemic magnitude in rubella. We found considerable regional variation in both magnitude of transmission and amplitude of seasonal variation in transmission. Several lines of evidence pointed to stochastic dynamics as an important driver of multi-annual cycles. Since average age of infection increased with the relative importance of stochastic dynamics, this conclusion has implications for the burden of congenital rubella syndrome. We discuss factors underlying regional variation, and implications of the importance of stochasticity for vaccination implementation.
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