Skip to main content
    • Aa
    • Aa
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 5
  • Cited by
    This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Stevens, Kim B. and Pfeiffer, Dirk U. 2015. Sources of spatial animal and human health data: Casting the net wide to deal more effectively with increasingly complex disease problems. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Vol. 13, p. 15.

    冯, 上升 2015. State-of-Art Advances in Liquid Penetration Theory and Flow Control in Paper for Paper-Based Diagnosis. Advances in Porous Flow, Vol. 05, Issue. 02, p. 16.

    Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai 2014. Cholera transmission dynamic models for public health practitioners. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, Vol. 11, Issue. 1, p. 1.

    Barzilay, Ezra J. Schaad, Nicolas Magloire, Roc Mung, Kam S. Boncy, Jacques Dahourou, Georges A. Mintz, Eric D. Steenland, Maria W. Vertefeuille, John F. and Tappero, Jordan W. 2013. Cholera Surveillance during the Haiti Epidemic — The First 2 Years. New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 368, Issue. 7, p. 599.

    Neuberger, A. Paul, M. Nizar, A. and Raoult, D. 2013. Modelling in infectious diseases: between haphazard and hazard. Clinical Microbiology and Infection, Vol. 19, Issue. 11, p. 993.


Real-time modelling used for outbreak management during a cholera epidemic, Haiti, 2010–2011

  • J. Y. ABRAMS (a1), J. R. COPELAND (a1), R. V. TAUXE (a1), K. A. DATE (a1), E. D. BELAY (a1), R. K. MODY (a1) and E. D. MINTZ (a1)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 31 August 2012

The emergence of epidemic cholera in post-earthquake Haiti portended a public health disaster of uncertain magnitude. In order to coordinate relief efforts in an environment with limited healthcare infrastructure and stretched resources, timely and realistic projections of the extent of the cholera outbreak were crucial. Projections were shared with Government and partner organizations beginning 5 days after the first reported case and were updated using progressively more advanced methods as more surveillance data became available. The first projection estimated that 105 000 cholera cases would occur in the first year. Subsequent projections using different methods estimated up to 652 000 cases and 163 000–247 000 hospitalizations during the first year. Current surveillance data show these projections to have provided reasonable approximations of the observed epidemic. Providing the real-time projections allowed Haitian ministries and external aid organizations to better plan and implement response measures during the evolving epidemic.

Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Dr J. Y. Abrams, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC Mailstop A30, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. (Email:
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

10.DM Hartley , JG Morris Jr., DL Smith . Hyperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics? PLoS Medicine 2006; 3: e7.

15.M Bradley , Epidemiological features of epidemic cholera (El Tor) in Zimbabwe. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1996; 90: 378382.

20.C Djeddah , An outbreak of cholera in a refugee camp in Africa. European Journal of Epidemiology 1988; 4: 227230.

22.LE Helde . Medical supplies management in the cholera epidemic in Somalia 1985. Disasters 1987; 11: 205213.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *