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Simulation of the probable vector density that caused the Nagasaki dengue outbreak vectored by Aedes albopictus in 1942

  • M. OKI (a1) and T. YAMAMOTO (a1)
Summary

Japan experienced dengue outbreaks vectored by Aedes albopictus during the Second World War. The probable vector density that caused the largest dengue outbreak in Nagasaki in 1942 was estimated using a mathematical simulation model. The estimated vector density was 15·0–558·0 per person when various assumptions of uncertain parameters were applied, such as proportion of symptomatic cases, vector mortality, and human biting rate of A. albopictus. When the most favourable disease spread conditions, such as a combination of the exclusive human biting rate and the longest vector survival were assumed, the vector density was 15–25 mosquitoes per person. Unusually high vector density due to wartime practices, and the traditional Japanese lifestyle were presumably responsible for the earlier dengue outbreak. If an outbreak occurs in present-day Japan, it is unlikely to spread as much as the previous one, as environmental conditions and human behaviour have changed in a protective manner.

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Copyright
COPYRIGHT: © Cambridge University Press 2013
The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence . The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
Corresponding author
*Author for correspondence: Dr M. Oki, Department of International Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan (Email: mrs_southern_wind@yahoo.co.jp)
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