Measles elimination goals have been adopted in a range of countries, sub-regions, and regions since the WHO declared an elimination goal by 2015 or 2020. All countries attempt to achieve and maintain high coverage through routine immunization programmes. This routine strategy, however, does not ensure the elimination goal of measles. Many developed countries, such as the United States, that have succeeded in interrupting measles transmission earlier, are now experiencing outbreaks with an increasing number of cases. Using a stochastic, age-structured model of measles vaccination dynamics, we explore and characterize the transient dynamics of measles susceptibility in the years following the implementation of routine vaccination at the herd immunity threshold. We demonstrate how a population could face risks of potentially large outbreaks even within few years of vaccination. We characterize different risk profiles depending on the incidence pattern in the years prior to vaccination. These results suggest that the classic critical vaccination threshold is necessary to achieve herd immunity, but not sufficient to prevent long periods of transient, super-critical dynamics. Our results suggest the need of future work for more careful monitoring of the impacts of current immunization programmes, and developing models that take into account more complicated vaccination strategies, demographic factors, and population movements.

A study was conducted to assess the awareness of cattle abortions due to brucellosis, Rift Valley fever (RVF) and leptospirosis, and to compare frequencies of reported abortions in communities living at the periphery of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southeastern Zimbabwe. Three study sites were selected based on the type of livestock–wildlife interface: porous livestock–wildlife interface (unrestricted); non-porous livestock–wildlife interface (restricted by fencing); and livestock–wildlife non-interface (totally absent or control). Respondents randomly selected from a list of potential cattle farmers (N = 379) distributed at porous (40·1%), non-interface (35·5%) and non-porous (26·4%), were interviewed using a combined close- and open-ended questionnaire. Focus group discussions were conducted with 10–12 members of each community. More abortions in the last 5 years were reported from the porous interface (52%) and a significantly higher per cent of respondents from the porous interface (P < 0·05) perceived wildlife as playing a role in livestock abortions compared with the other interface types. The odds of reporting abortions in cattle were higher in large herd sizes (odds ratio (OR) = 2·6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·5–4·3), porous (OR = 1·9; 95% CI 1·0–3·5) and non-porous interface (OR = 2·2; 95% CI 1·1–4·3) compared with livestock–wildlife non-interface areas. About 21·6% of the respondents knew brucellosis as a cause of abortion, compared with RVF (9·8%) and leptospirosis (3·7%). These results explain to some extent, the existence of human/wildlife conflict in the studied livestock–wildlife interface areas of Zimbabwe, which militates against biodiversity conservation efforts. The low awareness of zoonoses means the public is at risk of contracting some of these infections. Thus, further studies should focus on livestock–wildlife interface areas to assess if the increased rates of abortions reported in cattle may be due to exposure to wildlife or other factors. The government of Zimbabwe needs to launch educational programmes on public health awareness in these remote areas at the periphery of transfrontier conservation areas where livestock–wildlife interface exists to help mitigate the morbidity and mortality of people from some of the known zoonotic diseases.

Measles was eliminated in the Americas in 2002 by a combination of routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities. Recent outbreaks underscore the importance of reconsidering vaccine policy in order to maintain elimination. We constructed an age-structured dynamical model for the distribution of immunity in a population with routine immunization and without disease, and analysed the steady state for an idealized age structure and for real age structures of countries in the Americas. We compared the level of immunity maintained by current policy in these countries to the level maintainable by an optimal policy. The optimal age target for the first routine dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of both doses. Similarly, the optimal age target for the second dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of the first dose. The age targets for the first and second doses of measles vaccine should be adjusted for the post-elimination era, by specifically accounting for current context, including realized coverage of both doses, and altered maternal immunity. Doing so can greatly improve the proportion immune within a population, and therefore the chances of maintaining measles elimination, without changing coverage.

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is caused by a novel coronavirus discovered in 2012. Since then, 1806 cases, including 564 deaths, have been reported by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and affected countries as of 1 June 2016. Previous literature attributed increases in MERS-CoV transmission to camel breeding season as camels are likely the reservoir for the virus. However, this literature review and subsequent analysis indicate a lack of seasonality. A retrospective, epidemiological cluster analysis was conducted to investigate increases in MERS-CoV transmission and reports of household and nosocomial clusters. Cases were verified and associations between cases were substantiated through an extensive literature review and the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch's Tiered Source Classification System. A total of 51 clusters were identified, primarily nosocomial (80·4%) and most occurred in KSA (45·1%). Clusters corresponded temporally with the majority of periods of greatest incidence, suggesting a strong correlation between nosocomial transmission and notable increases in cases.

Influenza A(H1N1) viruses of the 2009 pandemic (A(H1N1)pdm09) continue to cause outbreaks in the post-pandemic period. During January to May 2015, an upsurge of influenza was recorded that resulted in high fatality in central India. Genetic lineage, mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene and infection by quasi-species are reported to affect disease severity. The objective of this study is to present the molecular and epidemiological trends during the 2015 influenza outbreak in central India. All the referred samples were subjected to qRT–PCR for diagnosis. HA gene sequencing (23 survivors and 24 non-survivors) and cloning were performed and analyzed using Molecular Evolutionary Genomic Analyzer (MEGA 5·05). Of the 3625 tested samples, 1607 (44·3%) were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of which 228 (14·2%) individuals succumbed to death. A significant trend was observed in positivity (P = 0·003) and mortality (P < 0·0001) with increasing age. The circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was characterized as belonging to clade-6B. Clinically significant mutations were detected. Patients infected with the quasi-species of the virus had a greater risk of death (P = 0·009). This study proposes a robust molecular and clinical surveillance program for the detection and characterization of the virus, along with prompt treatment protocols to prevent outbreaks.

The aim of this study was to ascertain farmers’ knowledge of the risk of spread of infection from animals to humans, and their transmission prevention practices. This was a survey of farmers who submitted material to Ireland's Regional Veterinary Laboratories in 2015. There was an 84% response rate (1044 farmers). Ninety per cent of farmers were not aware that infection can be acquired from apparently healthy animals. Over half were not aware that disease could be contracted from sick poultry or pets. Conversely, the knowledge of the risk to pregnant women of infection from birthing animals was high (88%). Four-fifths of farmers sourced drinking water from a private well, and of these, 62% tested their water less frequently than once a year. Of dairy farmers, 39% drank unpasteurised milk once a week or more frequently. Veterinarians were the most commonly cited information source for diseases on farms. The survey findings indicate that the level of farmers’ knowledge and awareness of the spread of infection from animals to humans is a concern. Further education of the farming community is needed to increase awareness of both the potential biohazards present on farms and the practical measures that can be taken to mitigate the risk of zoonoses.

In the development of vaccines for tuberculosis (TB), the combination of the will, funding, scientific rigor, new tools, refined animal models and improved clinical trial designs are all converging at an opportune moment. The lack of optimism that has surrounded the likelihood for finding novel TB vaccines has resulted from a lack of correlates of vaccine-induced protection, a lack of tool candidate vaccines to probe the immunologic space, which may be needed, and the negative result of one recent trial. A vaccine for TB that can be delivered at a reasonable cost to the marketplace will have greater impact on the incidence of new cases of TB than any intervention in world history. Now is the time to increase resources, both financial and human intellectual capacity, for a global tuberculosis vaccine effort.

Indigenous, foodborne transmission of hepatitis E has been increasing across industrialised countries. Public Health England has conducted enhanced surveillance in England and Wales since 2003.This report gives an account of acute infections from 2010 to 2016 and describes modification made to the methods of surveillance to account for changes in reporting behaviours and improve ascertainment.

Salmonella is one of the most prevalent bacteria associated with enteric illness in Canada and seniors are considered a vulnerable population more likely to develop severe illness. In the coming decades, hospitalizations and deaths associated with Salmonella in seniors could represent a challenge due to an aging population in Canada. The numbers of non-typhoidal (NT) Salmonella-related hospitalizations from the Canadian Hospitalization Morbidity Database were analysed for a period of 10 years for seniors. Hospitalization rate calculations and descriptive analyses were performed on variables associated with the burden of hospitalization and compared with the adult age group. Estimates of hospitalizations and deaths associated with domestically acquired Salmonella (accounting for under-reporting) were also calculated. This study found that 50% of the NT Salmonella-related hospitalization and 82% of the deaths recorded in the Canadian adult population occurred in seniors. The length of hospitalization stay was also longer in seniors (7 days) than other adults (4 days). We estimated that each year, 535 hospitalizations and 27 deaths are related to domestically acquired Salmonella in seniors. Senior populations represent a substantial percentage of Salmonella-related hospitalizations and deaths in Canada and the burden associated with those hospitalizations is also greater. This should be considered when developing estimates of medical costs and implementing prevention activities.

Anecdotal evidence has suggested that outdoor-kept pigs show an improvement to health and productivity after being moved to a new site. This study explores whether Salmonella occurrence reduced and was sustained after moving to a new site. Nine farms were followed for a year in which four sampling visits were completed. The highest detection of Salmonella was from pooled faecal dropping from pigs, run-off/ pooled water, rodents and wild birds. Descriptive summaries showed that the prevalence of both all Salmonella and serovars of public health importance were lower at all visits after the move. Some variability was shown in results from individual farms, but a year after the move, six farms still maintained a lower prevalence. A risk factor model showed that the prevalence at visits 2 and 3 after the move was significantly lower than baseline, after accounting for a number of significant factors that were included in the model. These were sample type and seasonality (included as a priori), presence of coughing in the sampled group and Glasser's disease on the farm, and the use of tent or kennel accommodation. This finding provides important evidence that more frequent site moves may help reduce Salmonella prevalence in outdoor herds.

One case of hospital-acquired listeriosis was linked to milkshakes produced in a commercial-grade shake freezer machine. This machine was found to be contaminated with a strain of Listeria monocytogenes epidemiologically and molecularly linked to a contaminated pasteurized, dairy-based ice cream product at the same hospital a year earlier, despite repeated cleaning and sanitizing. Healthcare facilities should be aware of the potential for prolonged Listeria contamination of food service equipment. In addition, healthcare providers should consider counselling persons who have an increased risk for Listeria infections regarding foods that have caused Listeria infections. The prevalence of persistent Listeria contamination of commercial-grade milkshake machines in healthcare facilities and the risk associated with serving dairy-based ice cream products to hospitalized patients at increased risk for invasive L. monocytogenes infections should be further evaluated.

Measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection can cause serious diseases and complications in the HIV-positive population. Due to successful vaccination programmes measles, mumps and congenital rubella syndrome has become neglected in Germany. However, recent outbreaks of measles have occurred from import-associated cases. In this cross-sectional study the serostatus for MMR and VZV in 2013 HIV-positive adults from three different university outpatient clinics in Bonn (n = 544), Cologne (n = 995) and Munich (n = 474) was analysed. Sera were tested for MMR- and VZV-specific immunglobulin G antibodies using commercial immunoassays. Seronegativity was found in 3% for measles, 26% for mumps, 11% for rubella and 2% for VZV. Regarding MMR, 35% of patients lacked seropositivity against at least one infectious agent. In multivariable analysis younger age was strongly associated with seronegativity against all four viruses, measles, mumps, rubella (P < 0·001, P < 0·001 and P = 0·001, respectively) and VZV (P = 0·001). In conclusion, there is high need for MMR and VZV vaccination in people living with HIV in Germany born in 1970 or later. Thus, systematic MMR and VZV antibody screening and vaccination should be implemented in the HIV-positive population to prevent serious disease and complications of vaccine-preventable diseases.

In the post-pandemic period, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus has been detected in swine populations in different parts of the world. This study was conducted to determine the presence and spatial patterns of this human pandemic virus among Nigerian pigs and identify associated risk factors. Using a two-stage stratified random sampling method, nasal swab specimens were obtained from pigs in Ibadan, Nigeria during the 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 influenza seasons, and the virus was detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Purified RT-PCR products were sequenced in both directions, and sequences were aligned using MUSCLE. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted in MEGA6. Purely spatial scan statistics and a spatial lag regression model were used to identify spatial clusters and associated risk factors. The virus was detected in both seasons, with an overall prevalence of 8·7%. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the M genes were similar to those of pandemic strains which circulated in humans prior to and during the study. Cluster analysis revealed a significant primary spatial cluster (RR = 4·71, LLR = 5·66, P = 0·0046), while ‘hours spent with pigs (R2 = 0·90, P = 0·0018)’ and ‘hours spent with pigs from different farms (R2 = 0·91, P = 0·0001)’ were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0·05). These findings reveal that there is considerable risk of transmission of the pandemic virus, either directly from pig handlers or through fomites, to swine herds in Ibadan, Nigeria. Active circulation of the virus among Nigerian pigs could enhance its reassortment with endemic swine influenza viruses. Campaigns for adoption of biosecurity measures in West African piggeries and abattoirs should be introduced and sustained in order to prevent the emergence of a new influenza epicentre in the sub-region.

Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7·04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2·7 and the standard deviation (s.d.)σ = 1·1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2·51 (s.d. = 0·73), 4·11 (s.d. = 2·20) and 5·88 (s.d. = 5·00), respectively. When Tc = 2·9 and σ = 1·4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2·62 (s.d. = 0·78), 4·72 (s.d. = 2·82) and 6·86 (s.d. = 6·34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4·32 (s.d. = 2·47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.

Yersinia enterocolitica infection is a zoonosis with worldwide distribution, gastroenteritis being by far the most common clinical manifestation of human infection. In Gipuzkoa, northern Spain, human Y. enterocolitica infections increased from the mid-1980s to the beginning of the 21st century (from 7·9 to 23·2 annual episodes per 100 000 population) to decrease to 7·2 annual episodes per 100 000 population in the last years of the study. The hospital admission rate due to yersiniosis during the last 15 years of the study was 7·3%. More than 99% of isolates were serotype O:3. Infection affected mainly children under 5 years of age (average rate: 140 episodes per 100 000 population). The incidence in adults was low but hospitalisation increased with age, exceeding 50% in people over 64 years old.

We determined the prevalence of anti-hepatitis B surface antibodies (anti-HBs) among children and adolescents vaccinated for hepatitis B virus in infancy as part of the routine vaccination programme. A representative serum sample of the Israeli population age 0–19 was tested. In a separate pilot study, a booster dose of hepatitis B vaccine was administered to 31 candidates for national service, who were fully vaccinated in infancy and tested negative for hepatitis B surface antibodies at age 17–19 years and anti-HBs antibodies were assessed 8 weeks later. Of the 1273 samples tested, 631 (49·6%) were positive to anti-HBs antibodies. Seropositivity rates were 89·5% among infants aged 6–12 months and declined significantly with age to 20·7% at age 19 years. No differences in seropositivity rates were observed between Jews and Arabs, males and females and those born in Israel and in other countries. Seroconversion rate among the 31 individuals who received a booster dose was 90·3% (95% CI: 75·1–96·6%). We recommend a booster dose for healthcare personnel before starting to work at the health care facility.

During the recent Ebola crisis in West Africa, individual person-level details of disease onset, transmissions, and outcomes such as survival or death were reported in online news media. We set out to document disease transmission chains for Ebola, with the goal of generating a timely account that could be used for surveillance, mathematical modeling, and public health decision-making. By accessing public web pages only, such as locally produced newspapers and blogs, we created a transmission chain involving two Ebola clusters in West Africa that compared favorably with other published transmission chains, and derived parameters for a mathematical model of Ebola disease transmission that were not statistically different from those derived from published sources. We present a protocol for responsibly gleaning epidemiological facts, transmission model parameters, and useful details from affected communities using mostly indigenously produced sources. After comparing our transmission parameters to published parameters, we discuss additional benefits of our method, such as gaining practical information about the affected community, its infrastructure, politics, and culture. We also briefly compare our method to similar efforts that used mostly non-indigenous online sources to generate epidemiological information.

There is a paucity of information on the risk from potable water in non-passenger merchant vessels (NPMVs) particularly with regard to Legionella and other bacteria. This retrospective study examined water samples from 550 NPMVs docked in eight UK ports. A total of 1027 samples from 412 NPMVs were examined for total aerobic colony counts (ACC), coliforms, Escherichia coli and enterococci; 41% of samples yielded ACC above the action level (>1 × 103 c.f.u./ml) and 4·5% contained actionable levels (>1 c.f.u./100 ml) of faecal indicator bacteria. Eight hundred and three samples from 360 NPMVs were cultured specifically for Legionella and 58% of vessels proved positive for these organisms with 27% of samples showing levels greater than the UK upper action limit of 1 × 103 c.f.u./l. Cabin showers (49%) and hospital shower (45%) were frequently positive. A subset of 106 samples was analysed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction for Legionella and identified a further 11 Legionella-positive NPMVs, returning a negative predictive value of 100%. There was no correlation between NPMV age or size and any microbial parameters (P > 0·05). Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was isolated from 46% of NPMVs and sequence-based typing of 17 isolates revealed four sequence types (STs) previously associated with human disease. These data raise significant concerns regarding the management of microbial and Legionella risks on board NPMVs and suggest that better guidance and compliance are required to improve control.

We compared the cost-effectiveness (CE) of an active case-finding (ACF) programme for household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) cases enrolled in first-line treatment to routine passive case-finding (PCF) within an established national TB programme in Peru. Decision analysis was used to model detection of TB in household contacts through: (1) self-report of symptomatic cases for evaluation (PCF), (2) a provider-initiated ACF programme, (3) addition of an Xpert MTB/RIF diagnostic test for a single sputum sample from household contacts, and (4) all strategies combined. CE was calculated as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of US dollars per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Compared to PCF alone, ACF for household contacts resulted in an ICER of $2155 per DALY averted. The addition of the Xpert MTB/RIF diagnostic test resulted in an ICER of $3275 per DALY averted within a PCF programme and $3399 per DALY averted when an ACF programme was included. Provider-initiated ACF of household contacts in an urban setting of Lima, Peru can be highly cost-effective, even including costs to seek out contacts and perform an Xpert/MTB RIF test. ACF including Xpert MTB/RIF was not cost-effective if TB cases detected had high rates of default from treatment or poor outcomes.