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Reconsidering NATO expansion: a counterfactual analysis of Russia and the West in the 1990s

  • Kimberly Marten (a1)
Abstract

This article re-examines the history of NATO’s original post-Cold War enlargement to include the Visegrad states of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. It uses both published materials and the author’s new interviews with key US and Russian policymakers, and employs robust qualitative counterfactual methods to ask two questions: whether there were any realistic alternatives to NATO enlargement, and whether NATO enlargement was responsible for the downturn in Russian relations with the West. It concludes that domestic politics were the dominant factors explaining policy directions on both the US and Russian sides; that NATO enlargement was probably inevitable given US domestic political factors and West European acquiescence; that Russia’s turn against the West preceded the NATO expansion discussion in the US; that the tenor of the Russian turn is explained by status concerns rather than military threat perceptions, and that it was aggravated most by Western unilateral airstrikes rather than NATO’s geographical enlargement; and that the one policy initiative that might have realistically slowed NATO enlargement if it had been adopted differently, Partnership for Peace, did not affect those Russian status concerns and thus could not have redirected the relationship.

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*Correspondence to: Kimberly Marten, Department of Political Science, Barnard College, 3009 Broadway, New York, NY 10027. Author’s email: km2225@columbia.edu
References
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1 ‘Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy’ (10 February 2007), available at: {http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2007/02/10/0138_type82912type82914type82917type84779_118123.shtml}.

2 Office of the President of Russia, ‘Address by President of the Russian Federation’ (18 March 2014), available at: {http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6889l}; ‘Direct Line with Vladimir Putin’ (17 April 2014), available at: {http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034}.

3 Mikhail Popov, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, quoted in ‘Russia to Adjust Military Doctrine Due to NATO Expansion, Ukraine Crisis’ RT (2 September 2014).

4 The Kremlin, ‘V Gosdumu vnesen proekt zakona a priostanovlenii deistviia soglasheniia mezhdu Rossiei i SShA ob utilizatii plutonia [In the Duma a Bill Was Introduced on Ceasing Activities of the Agreement between Russia and the USA on Plutonium Utilization]’ (3 October 2016), available at: {http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/53009}.

5 George F. Kennan, ‘A fateful error’, New York Times (5 February 1997). For a more recent argument on the same point, see Stephen M. Walt, ‘NATO Owes Putin a Big Thank-You’ (4 September 2014), available at: {www.ForeignPolicy.com}.

6 John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Getting Ukraine wrong’, New York Times (13 March 2014); John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault’, Foreign Affairs (September/October 2014).

7 See, for example, Spohr, Kristina, ‘Precluded or precedent-setting? The “NATO enlargement question” in the triangular Bonn-Washington-Moscow diplomacy of 1990–1991’, Journal of Cold War Studies, 14:4 (autumn 2012), pp. 454 ; Mary Elise Sarotte, ‘A broken promise? What the West really told Moscow about NATO expansion’, Foreign Affairs (September/October 2014); Steven Pifer, ‘Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No”’, Brookings Up Front blog (6 November 2014); Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Joshua R., ‘Deal or no deal? The end of the Cold War and the U.S. offer to limit NATO expansion’, International Security, 40:4 (spring 2016), pp. 744 ; and James Goldgeier, ‘Promises Made, Promises Broken? What Yeltsin Was Told About NATO in 1993 and Why It Matters’, War on the Rocks blog (12 July 2016).

8 Michael McFaul, ‘Faulty powers: Who started the Ukraine crisis?’, Foreign Affairs (November/December 2014).

9 Cited, among many other places, in Tetlock, Philip E. and Parker, Geoffrey, ‘Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can’t live without them and why we must learn to live with them’, in Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker, Unmaking the West: ‘What-If’ Scenarios that Rewrite World History (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006), p. 28 .

10 For additional examples, see Tetlock, Philip E. and Belkin, Aaron, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996); Ferguson, Niall, Virtual History: Alternatives And Counterfactuals (New York: Basic Books, 2000); Black, Jeremy, What If?: Counterfactualism and the Problem of History (London: Social Affairs Unit, 2008); Ned Lebow, Richard, Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010); and Harvey, Frank P., Explaining the Iraq War: Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

11 Kortunov, Andrei, ‘NATO enlargement and Russia: In search of an adequate response’, in David C. Haglund, Will NATO Go East? The Debate over Enlarging the Atlantic Alliance (Kingston: Queens’s University Centre for International Relations, 1996), pp. 7172 .

12 Marcus Warren, ‘Putin lets NATO “recruit” in Baltic’, The Independent (25 June 2002).

13 For examples of the extensive literature on status in international relations and Russian status concerns in particular, see Clunan, Anne L., The Social Construction of Russia’s Resurgence: Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009); Larson, Deborah Welch and Shevchenko, Alexei, ‘Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to US primacy’, International Security, 34:4 (spring 2010), pp. 6393 ; Paul, T. V., Larson, Deborah Welch, and Wohlforth, William C. (eds), Status in World Politics (New York: Cambridge, 2014); and Heller, Regina, Forsberg, Tuomas, and Wolf, Reinhard (special guest eds), ‘Status and emotions in Russian foreign policy’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47:3–5, Special Isssue (September–December 2014), pp. 261363 .

14 Pavel Koshkin, interview with Dmitry Trenin, ‘What kind of Russia should the West fear?’, Russia Direct (11 January 2017), available at: {http://carnegie.ru/2017/01/11/what-kind-of-russia-should-west-fear-pub-67658}.

15 See, for example, the special ‘Symposium on Counterfactual Analysis’ in Security Studies 24:3 (autumn 2015).

16 Key writings include Tetlock and Belkin, ‘Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives’, in Tetlock, and Belkin, , Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, pp. 138 ; Tetlock, and Parker, , ‘Counterfactual thought experiments’, pp. 1446 ; Levy, ‘Counterfactuals and case studies’; and Levy, ‘Counterfactuals, causal inference, and historical analysis’. See also Lustick, Ian S., ‘Tetlock and counterfactuals: Saving methodological ambition from empirical findings’, Critical Review, 22:4 (2010), pp. 427447 .

17 Levy, , ‘Counterfactuals, causal inference, and historical analysis’, pp. 392393 .

18 For example, Harvey, Explaining the Iraq War, argues that the US would have invaded Iraq even if Al Gore had won the 2000 presidential election instead of George W. Bush.

19 Tetlock, and Parker, , ‘Counterfactual thought experiments’, p. 20 .

20 Levy, , ‘Counterfactuals and case studies’, p. 634 .

21 Ibid., pp. 631–9; Levy, , ‘Counterfactuals, causal inference, and historical analysis’, pp. 395397 .

22 Goldgeier, James M., Not Whether But When: The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO (Washington: Brookings, 1999); Asmus, Ronald D., Opening’s NATO’s Door: How the Alliance Remade Itself for a New Era (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002).

23 Asmus, , Opening’s NATO’s Door, p. 13 .

24 Charter of Paris for a New Europe (21 November 1990), available at: {http://www.osce.org/node/39516}.

25 Póti, László, ‘The Hungarian-Ukrainian-Russian triangle: Not like Rubik’s Cube’, in Margarita Balmaceda (ed.), On the Edge: Ukrainian-Central European-Russian Security Triangle (Budapest: Central European Press, 2000), p. 133 . See also Reisch, Alfred A., ‘Central and Eastern Europe’s quest for NATO membership’, RFE/RL Research Report, 2:28 (9 June 1993), pp. 3347 .

26 F. Lukyanov, ‘New stage in relations: Will Hungary join NATO?’, Izvestiia (26 November 1990), as reported in the Current Digest of the Soviet Press (hereafter CDSP), 42:47 (26 December 1990), p. 21.

27 Vachudova, Milada Anna, ‘The Visegrad Four: No alternative to cooperation?’, RFE/RL Research Report, 2:34 (August 1993), pp. 3940 .

28 Lukyanov, F., ‘Are Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia returning to Western structures?’, Izvestiia (19 February 1991), as reported in CDSP, 43:7 (20 March 1991), pp. 2223 .

29 Frost, Howard E., ‘Eastern Europe’s search for security’, Orbis, 37:1 (winter 1993), p. 43 .

30 Matveev, Vikenty, ‘Political commentator’s opinion: It isn’t such a fantastic scenario’, Izvestiia (29 April 1991), as reported in CDSP, 43:17 (29 May 1991), pp. 2021 .

31 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 7 .

32 Ibid., p. 9.

33 Solomon, Gerald B., The NATO Enlargement Debate, 1990–1997: Blessings of Liberty (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1998), p. 14 .

34 Hans Binnendijk, ‘NATO can’t be vague about commitment to Eastern Europe’, International Herald Tribune (8 November 1991).

35 James A. Baker with DeFrank, Thomas M., The Politics of Diplomacy: Revolution, War and Peace, 1989–1992 (New York: Putnam and Sons, 1995), p. 572 .

36 Yeltsin quoted in Vladimir Persada, ‘From Cold War to security: North Atlantic Cooperation Council created’, Pravda (23 December 1991), as reported in CDSP, 43:51 (22 January 1992), p. 21; author’s telephone interview with Andrei Kozyrev, January 2015.

37 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, ‘Poland’s Road to NATO’ (2012), available at: {www.msz.gov.pl/en/foreign_policy/security_policy/nato/polands_road_to_nato/}.

38 William Drozdiak, ‘29 nations approve arms control treaty; conventional arsenals in Europe to be cut’, Washington Post (6 June 1992).

39 Grayson, George W., Strange Bedfellows: NATO Marches East (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1999), p. 73 . See also Theresa Hitchens, interview with William Taft IV, H., ‘One on one’, Defense News (13–19 July 1992), p. 30 , and Goldgeier, , Not Whether But When, p. 18 .

40 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 20 ; Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 93; Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 25 .

41 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 20 .

42 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 95 .

43 Michael R. Gordon, ‘U.S. opposes move to rapidly expand NATO membership’, New York Times (2 January 1994).

44 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 21 .

45 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 43 ; author’s interview with Charles Gati, Washington, DC, November 2014. The best public summary of the views he expressed at the time is Gati, Charles, ‘If not democracy, what? Leaders, laggards, and losers in the post-communist world’, in Michael Mandelbaum (ed.), Post-Communism: Four Perspectives (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1996), pp. 168198 .

46 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. xxx . The article is Asmus, Ronald D., Kugler, Richard L., and Larrabee, F. Stephen, ‘Building a new NATO’, Foreign Affairs, 72:4 (September/October 1993), pp. 2840 .

47 Grayson, George W., Strange Bedfellows: NATO Marches East (Landham, MD: University Press of America, 1999), p. 46 .

48 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 313 , fn. 40.

49 Ibid., p. 47.

50 Jason DeParle, ‘The man inside Bill Clinton’s foreign policy’, New York Times (20 August 1995).

51 Brinkley, Douglas, ‘Democratic enlargement: the Clinton doctrine’, Foreign Policy, 106 (spring 1997), pp. 110127 .

52 Asmus, , Opening’s NATO’s Door, p. 253 .

53 Anthony Lake, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, ‘From Containment to Enlargement’, prepared remarks for speech given at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, DC (21 September 1993), available at: {www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/lakedoc.html}.

54 Carter, and Perry, , Preventive Defense, p. 24 .

55 Michael Dobbs, ‘Wider alliance would increase U.S. commitments’, Washington Post (5 July 1995). For the date of the memo, see Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 317 , fn. 100.

56 Quoted in Asmus, Opening NATO’s Door, p. 50.

57 Talbott, , Russia Hand, pp. 100101 .

58 ‘Zaiavlenie Predstavitelia MID Rossiiiskoi Federatskii [Announcement by the Head of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation]’ (11 January 1994), as published in Diplomaticheskii Vestnik, 3–4 (February 1994), pp. 63–4.

59 Quoted in Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, p. 57.

60 Ibid., p. 85.

61 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 54 .

62 Ibid., pp. 55–6.

63 Ibid., p. 61.

64 Grayson, Strange Bedfellows, p. 161.

65 Ibid., p. 162.

66 Michael Dobbs, ‘Enthusiasm for wider alliance is marked by contradictions’, Washington Post (7 July 1995). The text of the ‘Contract with America’ appeared in The National Security Revitalization Act, a bill passed by the House on 16 February 1995 that was never passed by the Senate. See HR 7 (104th), TITLE VI--EXPANSION OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION, referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (23 February 1995), available at: {https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/104/hr7/text}.

67 Author’s telephone interview with Strobe Talbott, September 2015. Talbott’s justification for enlargement is laid out in ‘Why NATO should grow’, New York Review of Books (10 August 1995).

68 Dobbs, , ‘Wider alliance’; Goldgeier, Not Whether but When, p. 65 .

69 Adam Bernstein, ‘Former journalist and private investigator Brooke Shearer dies at 58’, Washington Post (20 May 2009).

70 Clinton, Bill, My Life (New York: Knopf, 2004), pp. 504505 .

71 See Woodward, Susan L., Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1995), and Holbrooke, Richard, To End a War (New York: Modern Library, 1999).

72 Boniface, Pascal, ‘NATO’s enlargement, France’s dilemma’, in Haglann (ed.), Will NATO Go East?, pp. 181196 .

73 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, pp. 5960 .

74 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, pp. 6869 .

75 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 78 .

76 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 136 .

77 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, pp. 190191 ; Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 140 ; Goldgeier, James M. and McFaul, Michael, Power and Purpose: U.S. Policy toward Russia after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2003), p. 184 .

78 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 1 .

79 Barrett, John, ‘NATO’s year of study: Results and policy implications’, in Hagland (ed.), Will NATO Go East?, p. 96 .

80 See the 3 May letter to Talbott published in Richard T. Davies, ‘Should NATO grow? A dissent’, New York Review of Books (21 September 1995).

81 Grayson, , Strange Bedfellows, pp. 139146 .

82 Ibid., p. 139.

83 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 105 .

84 For a sophisticated discussion of these possibilities, see Clunan, , Social Construction of Russia’s Resurgence, pp. 6074 .

85 Talbott, Russia Hand.

86 Ibid; Perry, Preventive Defense, p. 26.

87 Vyacheslav Gorskii, Problems and Prospects of NATO-Russia Relationship: The Russian Debate, Final Report from the NATO Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council Fellowships Program, 1999–2001 (Moscow: June 2001), available at: {http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/99-01/gorskii.pdf}.

88 Gorskii, , Problems and Prospects, pp. 5 , 56, fn. 7.

89 Reisch, , ‘Central and Eastern Europe’s quest’, p. 37 .

90 William Safire, ‘Kozyrev’s wake-up slap’, New York Times (17 December 1992).

91 Arbatov, Alexei, ‘Russian foreign policy thinking in transition’, in Vladimir Baranovsky (ed.), Russia and Europe: The Emerging Security Agenda (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 142.

92 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 42 .

93 Ibid., p. 59.

94 Ibid., p. 55. For a Russian reaction, see Arbatov, Alexei, ‘The vicissitudes of Russian politics’, in Baranovsky (ed.), Russia and Europe: The Emerging Security Agenda, pp. 7789 .

95 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 88 .

96 Clunan, Anne L., ‘Historical aspirations and the domestic politics of Russia's pursuit of international status’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47 (2014), p. 284 .

97 Arbatov, , ‘Russian foreign policy thinking in transition’, p. 135 .

98 Clunan, , Social Construction of Russia’s Resurgence, p. 244 , fn. 8.

99 Ibid., p. 126.

100 Larrabee, F. Stephen and Karasik, Theordore W., Foreign and Security Policy Decisionmaking under Yeltsin (Santa Monica: RAND, 1997); Arbatov, , ‘Russian foreign policy thinking in transition’, p. 140 ; Andrei Zagorski, ‘Russia and European institutions’, in Baranovsky (ed.), Russia and Europe, p. 521.

101 Holbrooke, , To End a War, p. 209 .

102 Talbott, , Russia Hand. The observation about Yeltsin’s January 1993 drunkenness is on p. 44 .

103 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev.

104 Author’s interview with Sergei Karaganov, Moscow, March 2015.

105 Anatoly Adamishin, ‘The Yugoslav prelude: a prototype for modern approaches to “peacemaking”’, Russia in Global Affairs, 3 (July–September 2013), available at: {http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-Yugoslav-Prelude-16158}.

106 Arbatov, , ‘Russian foreign policy thinking in transition’, p. 140 .

107 Author’s interview with Andrei Zagorsky, then a member of the Russian Foreign Minister’s Advisory Council, Moscow, March 2015. This was confirmed by author’s interview with Viktor Mizin, then a Soviet and Russian Foreign Ministry arms control expert and negotiations adviser, who said that Kozyrev changed about half the experts across Foreign Ministry departments; Moscow, March 2015.

108 Talbott, Russia Hand; author’s telephone interview with Bill Perry, January 2015; author’s interview with Zagorsky.

109 Alexander A. Konovalov, ‘The changing role of military factors’, in Baranovsky (ed.), Russia and Europe, pp. 196–218.

110 ‘The Basic Provisions of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation’, edict 1833 of the President of the Russian Federation (2 November 1993), available at: {http://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/russia-mil-doc.html#polbase}.

111 Cited in Zagorski, ‘Russia and European institutions’, p. 536.

112 Yevgenii Primakov, ‘Perspektivy Rasshireniia NATO i Interesy Rossii [Perspectives on NATO Expansion and the Interests of Russia]’, Izvestiia (26 November 1993).

113 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 95 .

114 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 44 .

115 Talbott, , Russia Hand , pp. 9596 .

116 Ibid., p. 96.

117 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev.

118 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev.

119 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 96 .

120 Ibid; author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev.

121 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev.

122 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 96 .

123 ‘Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s letter to US President Bill Clinton, 15 September 1993’, included in Appendix 7A, ‘Documents on European security’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 1994 (New York: Oxford, 1994), p. 250.

124 Ibid.

125 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 47 .

126 Quoted in Reuters, 1 October 1993, according to Suzanne Crow, ‘Russian Views on an Eastward Expansion of NATO’, RFE/RL Research Report, 2:41 (Oct. 15, 1993), p. 22.

127 See, for example, Hannes Adomeit, ‘Inside or Outside? Russia’s Policies toward NATO’, Working Paper FG 5 2007/1, Stiftung Wisshenschaft und Politik, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Berlin, January 2007).

128 The report from the conference was published as Karaganov, Sergei et al., ‘View from Russia: Russia and NATO: Theses of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy’, Comparative Strategy, 15 (1996), pp. 91102 .

129 Karaganov, Sergei, “Questions facing the future of Europe’, International Affairs (Moscow), 37:5 (May 1991), pp. 3948 .

130 Karaganov, et al., ‘View from Russia’, p. 94 .

131 Gorskii, Problems and Prospects; Kortunov, ‘NATO enlargement and Russia’.

132 ‘Kontsepsiia Vneshnei Politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii [The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation]’, Diplomaticheskii Vestnik [Diplomatic Courier, the flagship publication of the Russian Foreign Ministry], Special Issue (January 1993), pp. 12–15.

133 Vladislav Chernov, ‘Russia’s national interests and threats to its security’, Nezavisimaia Gazeta (29 April 1993), as reported in the Current Digest of the Soviet Press, 45:17 (1993), pp. 13–15.

134 Ibid.

135 Kozyrev, Andrei, ‘The New Russia and the Atlantic Alliance’, NATO Review, 1 (February 1993), pp. 36 ; Talbott, Russia Hand.

136 A brief version of the document was published as ‘Perspektivy Rasshirieniia NATO i Interesy Rossii: Doklad Sluzhby Vnesnei Razvedki [Perspectives on NATO Expansion and the Interests of Russia: A Foreign Intelligence Service Document]’, Izvestiia (26 November 1993), p. 4.

137 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 146 .

138 Aleksei Arbatov, ‘Russia and NATO: Do we need each other?’, Nezavisimaia Gazeta (11 March 1992), as reported in CDSP, 44:11 (15 April 1992).

139 Kortunov, , ‘NATO enlargement and Russia’, p. 86 .

140 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev, January 2015.

141 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 218 .

142 Baker, James A. III, ‘Expanding to the East: a New NATO alliance’, Los Angeles Times (5 December 1993), pt. M, p. 2 .

143 Baker, James A. III, ‘Russia in NATO?’, Washington Quarterly, 25:1 (2002), pp. 95103 .

144 Baker, ‘Russia in NATO?’.

145 Carter, Ashton B. and Perry, William J., Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1998), p. 30 ; see also Talbott, , Russia Hand, pp. 145146 .

146 Carter, and Perry, , Preventive Defense, p. 29 .

147 Kupchan, Charles A., ‘Strategic visions’, World Policy Journal, 11:3 (autumn 1994), pp. 112122 .

148 Kupchan, , ‘Strategic visions’, p. 113 .

149 Clinton, , My Life, pp. 383, 504 .

150 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, p. 11 .

151 Asmus, , Opening NATO’s Door, p. 88 .

152 Dobbs, ‘Wider alliance’.

153 Goldgeier, , Not Whether but When, pp. 7475 .

154 Perry, William J., My Journey at the Nuclear Brink (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2015), pp. 8789 .

155 ‘Gen. Sir Mike Jackson: My clash with NATO chief’, The Telegraph (4 September 2007).

156 Carter, and Perry, , Preventive Defense, p. 32 .

157 Perry, My Journey at the Nuclear Brink, p. 128. Confirmed in author’s telephone interview with Bill Perry, January 2015.

158 Grayson, , Strange Bedfellows, p. 157 .

159 Ibid., pp. 158, 169. For Article 10, see The North Atlantic Treaty (4 April 1949), available at: {http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm}.

160 Grayson, , Strange Bedfellows, p. 164 .

161 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 139 .

162 Jeff Gerth and Tim Weiner, ‘Arms makers see bonanza in selling NATO expansion’, New York Times (29 June 1997).

163 Monten, Jonathan, ‘The roots of the Bush doctrine’, International Security, 29:4 (spring 2005), pp. 112156 ; Schmidt, Brian C. and Williams, Michael C., ‘The Bush doctrine and the Iraq War: Neoconservatives versus realists’, Security Studies, 17:2 (June 2008), pp. 191220 .

164 Judy Dempsey, ‘U.S. starts diplomatic offensive on NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine’, New York Times (25 October 2008).

165 William J. Perry, ‘Preface’, in George L. Butler, Anatolii V. Boliatko, and Scott D. Sagan, Reducing the Risk of Dangerous Military Activities, Report of the Stanford University Center for International Security and Arms Control (Stanford, CA: July 1991), p. vi. See also Bob Woodward and R. Jeffrey Smith, ‘U.S.-Soviet pact to curb incidents’, Washington Post (7 June 1989).

166 Zisk, Kimberly Marten, Engaging the Enemy: Organization Theory and Soviet Military Innovation, 1955–1991 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 125130 .

167 McCarthy, Michael J., ‘Comrades in arms: Russian-American military-to-military contacts since 1992’, Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 9:4 (December 1996), pp. 743778 .

168 McCarthy, , ‘Comrades in arms’, pp. 753754 ; Carter, and Perry, , Preventive Defense, p. 24 .

169 Talbott, , Russia Hand, pp. 73, 74 .

170 Adamishin, ‘The Yugoslav prelude’.

171 Talbott, , Russia Hand, p. 77 .

172 Gorskii, , Problems and Prospects , p. 18 .

173 Ibid., p. 18.

174 Author’s telephone interview with Kozyrev; author’s interview with Churkin.

175 Pouliot, Vincent, International Security in Practice: The Politics of NATO-Russia Diplomacy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010), pp. 162163 .

176 Carter, and Perry, , Preventive Defense, p. 32 .

177 Ibid.

178 Talbott, Russia Hand, p. 133. The reference is to the American ‘Charlie Brown’ comic strip, where every fall the character named Lucy would agree to hold a football while Charlie Brown tried to kick a field goal – and always pulled the ball away at the last minute, making Charlie Brown fall on his back as he tried to make the kick. Charlie Brown never learned.

179 Pouliot, International Security in Practice, p. 167, argues that it was NATO enlargement that was key, but his analysis does not include Perry’s descriptions of his interactions with Grachev.

180 Rick Atkinson, ‘Bosnia force testing New Russian-U.S. ties’, Washington Post (18 January 1996).

181 Pouliot, , International Security in Practice, p. 123 .

182 Zisk, Kimberly Marten, ‘Contact lenses: Explaining U.S.-Russian military-to-military ties’, Armed Forces and Society, 25:4 (summer 1999), p. 584 .

183 For in-depth discussions of the Russian reaction to the Kosovo crisis and its effects on status concerns, see Antonenko, Oksana, ‘Russia, NATO and European security after Kosovo’, Survival, 41:4 (1999), pp. 124144 ; Lynch, Dov, ‘“Walking the tightrope”: the Kosovo conflict and Russia in European security, 1998–August 1999’, European Security, 8:4 (1999), pp. 5783 ; and Baranovsky, Vladimir, ‘Russia: A part of Europe or apart from Europe?’, International Affairs (London), 76:3 (July 2000), pp. 443458 .

184 Daalder, Ivo H. and O’Hanlon, Michael E., Winning Ugly: NATO’s War to Save Kosovo (Washington: Brookings, 2001), p. 175 ; Clark, Wesley K., Waging Modern War: Bosnia, Kosovo, and the Future of Combat (New York: Public Affairs, 2002).

185 Pouliot, , International Security in Practice, p. 124 .

186 Email to the author from former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander R. Vershbow, 10 April 2017. The trend holds for troops, battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and artillery.

187 An interesting exception is Arbatov, Alexei, ‘NATO and Russia’, Security Dialogue, 26:2 (1995), pp. 135146 .

188 Zarakol, Ayşe, How the East Learned to Live with the West (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011); Larson and Shevchenko, ‘Russia says no’; Larson and Shevchenko, ‘Status seekers’.

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Total abstract views: 2679 *
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* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 1st November 2017 - 20th April 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.