Skip to main content Accesibility Help
×
×
Home

Springs and their offspring: the international consequences of domestic uprisings

  • John M. Owen (a1)
Abstract

A political spring is an abrupt, broad, sustained increase in public dissent in a state that has prohibited it, as in Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Tunisia in early 2011. Some springs produce offspring – clusters of events within neighbouring states (civic unrest, increased state repression, co-option of dissent, revolution) and among those states (intensification of international rivalries, foreign interventions). An English Spring in 1558–9 produced such a cluster in Northwestern Europe. This article addresses the underlying causal mechanism connecting springs and their offspring, rather than the related correlational question (viz. under what conditions a spring is followed by offspring). That mechanism is transnational group polarisation, or the progressive separation of preferences across a population into pro- and anti-government groups. Transnational polarisation along a pro-versus-anti-government axis is an endogenous process triggered by exogenous events, such as violence or public demonstrations that raise the status of, or threat to, one of the groups. It presents powerful actors across states with new threats and opportunities and can help explain how the Tunisian Spring of early 2011 produced throughout the Arab Middle East infectious unrest, serial repressions and reforms, heightened international tensions, and foreign interventions.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Springs and their offspring: the international consequences of domestic uprisings
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Springs and their offspring: the international consequences of domestic uprisings
      Available formats
      ×
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Springs and their offspring: the international consequences of domestic uprisings
      Available formats
      ×
Copyright
Corresponding author
* Correspondence to: John M. Owen, Woodrow Wilson Department of Politics, University of Virginia, PO Box 400787, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904, USA. Author’s email: jmo4n@virginia.edu
References
Hide All

1 Lynch, Marc, The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East (New York: Public Affairs, 2012).

2 In 1889, statistician Francis Galton critiqued a paper by anthropologist Edward Tylor presenting significant correlations between family law and patterns of descent across a number of cultures. Galton noted that Tylor’s observations may not have been independent, inasmuch as the cultures might have contact with one another. Ross, Marc Howard and Homer, Elizabeth, ‘Galton’s problem in cross-national research’, World Politics, 29:1 (1976), pp. 12.

3 For an exploration of contingency and complex causality in international relations, see Lebow, R. N., Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010).

4 See, for example, most of the chapters in Jervis, Robert and Snyder, Jack (eds), Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991); Walt, Stephen M., Revolution and War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1996), esp. pp. 3947. Walt boldly posted a blog entry on 16 January 2011, titled ‘Why the Tunisian Revolution won’t spread’, available at: {http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/15/why_the_tunisian_revolution_wont_spread}. The world is often unkind to the brave social scientist who makes public predictions.

5 See, for example, Simmons, Beth A. and Elkins, Zachary, ‘The globalisation of liberalization: Policy diffusion in the International Political Economy’, American Political Science Review, 98:1 (2004), pp. 171190; Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, ‘Conquest and regime change: an evolutionary model of the spread of democracy and peace’, International Studies Quarterly, 48:3 (2004), pp. 603629; the symposium on ‘Diffusion of liberalism’, International Organization, 60:4 (2006), pp. 781–909; Braun, Dietmar and Gilardi, Fabrizio, ‘Taking “Galton’s Problem” seriously: Towards a theory of policy diffusion’, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 18:3 (2006), pp. 298322; and Leeson, Peter T. and Dean, Andrea M., ‘The democratic domino theory: an empirical investigation’, American Journal of Political Science, 53:3 (2009), pp. 533551.

6 Weyland, Kurt, Making Waves: Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America since the Revolutions of 1848 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014); Beissinger, Mark R., ‘Structure and example in modular political phenomena: the diffusion of Bulldozer / Rose / Orange / Tulip Revolutions’, Perspectives on Politics, 5:2 (2007), pp. 259276; Kuran, Timur, ‘Sparks and prairie fires: a theory of unanticipated political revolution’, Public Choice, 61:1 (1989), pp. 4174; Kaempfer, William H. and Lowenberg, Anton D., ‘Using threshold models to explain International Relations’, Public Choice, 73:4 (1992), pp. 419443. See also Katz, Mark N., Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves (New York: St Martin’s Press, 1997).

7 For a helpful critical survey see Hale, Henry E., ‘Regime change cascades: what have we learned from the 1848 revolutions to the 2011 Arab uprisings?’, Annual Review of Political Science, 16 (2013), pp. 331353.

8 Weyland, Kurt, ‘The Arab Spring: Why the surprising similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?Perspectives on Politics, 10:4 (December 2012), pp. 917934.

9 Saideman, Stephen M., ‘When conflict spreads: Arab Spring and the limits of diffusion’, International Interactions, 38:5 (2012), p. 718.

10 Davis, William W., Duncan, George T., and Siverson, Randolph M., ‘The dynamics of warfare, 1816–1865’, American Journal of Political Science, 22:4 (1978), pp. 772792.

11 Seawright, Jason and Gerring, John, ‘Case selection techniques in case study research’, Political Research Quarterly, 61:2 (2008), pp. 299300; see also Mahoney, James and Goertz, Gary, ‘A tale of two cultures: Contrasting quantitative and qualitative research’, Political Analysis, 14:3 (2006), pp. 239240.

12 ‘Völkerfrühling’, Wikipedia (German), available at: {http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Völkerfrühling#cite_note-Martin-2} accessed 16 September 2014.

13 Koenigsberger, H. G., ‘The organisation of revolutionary parties in France and the Netherlands in the sixteenth century’, Journal of Modern History, 25:4 (1955), p. 336.

14 Kingdon, Robert M., Geneva and the Coming of the Wars of Religion in France (Geneva: Librairie E. Droz, 1956), pp. 5657.

15 See, for example, Henry II of France (r. 1547–59) issued the Edict of Châteaubriant in 1552, ordering courts to punish heretics and prohibited all Protestant writings. In 1554, however, war with Spain threatened and he granted temporary asylum to Protestant refugees from England. Ridley, Jasper, John Knox (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1968), p. 189.

16 Wernham, R. B., Before the Armada: The Emergence of the English Nation, 1485–1588 (New York: Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1966), pp. 244246.

17 Alford, Stephen, The Early Elizabethan Polity: William Cecil and the British Succession Crisis, 1558–1569 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 53.

18 Soon enough, some Catholic nobles were to conspire to overthrow her and place the Catholic Mary Stewart on the throne.

19 Wernham, Before the Armada, p. 246. The settlement was not moderate by today’s standards. Elizabeth executed Catholic priests and fined her subjects who failed to attend Protestant services.

20 Ryrie, Alec, The Origins of the Scottish Reformation (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 2006), pp. 141147.

21 Wernham, , Before the Armada, p. 247.

22 Ibid., p. 248; Ryrie, The Origins of the Scottish Reformation, p. 154.

23 Ryrie, The Origins of the Scottish Reformation, pp. 151–3. Ryrie adds a second development: in April 1559, France and Spain had signed the Treaty of Câteau-Cambrésis, ending their long wars. The treaty provided that both rulers would cease tolerating Protestantism in their realms. Mary, a French Catholic, complied.

24 Ryrie, The Origins of the Scottish Reformation, p. 162.

25 Wernham, Before the Armada, p. 248.

26 Alford, Stephen, The Early Elizabethan Polity: William Cecil and the British Succession Crisis, 1558–1569 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 5456.

27 Ryrie, The Origins of the Scottish Reformation, p. 163.

28 Owen, John M. IV, The Clash of Ideas in World Politics: Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change 1510–2010 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010), pp. 7982.

29 Ibid., pp. 102–6.

30 Suppose that a liberal uprising in A causes B to intervene in A to help the rebels. Suppose further than B’s intervention in A causes a liberal rebellion in C (by leading the discontented in C to believe that they too can draw intervention by B). It could still be the case that most uprisings across time and space neither follow nor precede foreign interventions. In that case, data on all foreign interventions over a century would show only a weak correlation between uprisings and foreign interventions and we might underappreciate the causal links between these two events in this particular case.

31 Jervis, Robert, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); Byrne, David and Uprichard, Emma, ‘Useful causal complexity’, in Harold Kincaid (ed.), Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), esp. pp. 110111. For more on complex causality see Lebow, Forbidden Fruit, ch. 1; Bennett, Andrew and Elman, Colin, ‘Complex causal relations and case study methods: the example of path dependence’, Political Analysis, 14:3 (2006), pp. 250267; Ragin, Charles, Redesigning Social Inquiry: Fuzzy Sets and Beyond (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008).

32 Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan, ‘Ethnic polarisation, ethnic salience, and civil war’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53:1 (2009), pp. 3049; Nome, Martin Austvoll and Weidmann, Nils, ‘Conflict diffusion via social identities: Entrepreneurship and adaptation’, in Jeffrey T. Checkel (ed.), Transnational Dynamics of Civil War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013), pp. 173204.

33 Dessler, David, ‘Beyond correlations: Toward a causal theory of war’, International Studies Quarterly, 35:3 (1991), pp. 337355.

34 Mahoney, James, ‘Process tracing and historical explanation’, Security Studies, 24:3 (2015), pp. 2026. See also Hedström, Peter and Swedberg, Richard, ‘Social mechanisms’, Acta Sociologica, 39:3 (1996), pp. 281308; Hedström, and Swedberg, (eds), Social Mechanisms (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), passim; Gerring, John, ‘The mechanismic worldview: Thinking inside the box’, British Journal of Political Science, 38:1 (2008), pp. 161179. For a critique of this understanding of mechanisms, see Waldner, David, ‘Process tracing and qualitative causal inference’, Security Studies, 24:2 (2015), pp. 239250.

35 Checkel, Transnational Dynamics of Civil War, p. 12.

36 Hunter, James Davison, Culture Wars: The Struggle to Define America (New York: Basic Books 2002); see also the articles in the Journal of Peace Research, 45:2 (March 2008), a Special Issue devoted to polarisation and conflict, edited by Joan Esteban and Gerald Schneider.

37 Sunstein, Cass, ‘The law of group polarisation’, Journal of Political Philosophy, 10:2 (2002), pp. 175195. Cf. Kanchan Chandra’s distinction between ethnic attributes, which are relatively stable, and categories, which are more fluid. Chandra, (ed.), Constructivist Theories of Ethnic Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), pp. 132133. Bhavnani, Ravi and Miodownik, Dan cite Afrobarometer data showing that ethnic saliency varies over time within countries; idem, ‘Ethnic polarisation, ethnic salience, and civil war’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53:1 (2009), pp. 3133.

38 Sambanis, Nicholas and Shayo, Moses, ‘Social identification and ethnic conflict’, American Political Science Review, 107:2 (2013), pp. 294325.

39 Kalyvas, Stathis N., The Logic of Violence in Civil War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006); Abrams, Dominic et al., ‘Knowing what to think by knowing who you are: Self-categorisation and the nature of norm formation, conformity and group polarisation’, British Journal of Social Psychology, 29:2 (2011), pp. 97119.

40 Sambanis and Shayo, ‘Social identification’, presents a formal model of self-reinforcing polarisation. Compare Kalyvas, Logic of Violence, pp. 77–82, where endogeneity means that conflict cleavages are created by the civil war itself.

41 Lipset, Seymour Martin, Revolution and Counterrevolution: Change and Persistence in Social Structures (New York: Transaction Publishers, 1960).

42 , Kuran, ‘Sparks and prairie fires’; idem, ‘The East European Revolutions of 1989: is it surprising that we were surprised?’, American Economic Review, 81:2 (1991), pp. 121125.

43 Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald S., ‘Spreading fear: the genesis of transnational ethnic conflict’, in Lake and Rothschild (eds), The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), pp. 332.

44 Stasavage, David, ‘Polarisation and publicity: Rethinking the benefits of deliberative democracy’, Journal of Politics, 69:1 (2007), pp. 5972; Catherine Hafer and Dimitri Landa, ‘Deliberation and social polarisation’, typescript, New York University, available at: SSRN: {http://ssrn.com/abstract=887634} or {http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.887634}.

45 Coser, Lewis, The Functions of Social Conflict (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1956).

46 Simmel, Georg, ‘The web of group affiliations’ (‘Die Kreuzung sozialer Kreise’, Soziologie [Muenchen: Duncker & Humblot, 1922], pp. 305–44), trans. Bendix, Reinhard, Simmel, in, Conflict and the Web of Group-Affiliations (Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1955), p. 137.

47 Simmel, ‘Web’, pp. 132–3.

48 Dunning, Thad and Harrison, Lauren, ‘Cross-Cutting cleavages and ethnic voting: an experimental study of cousinage in Mali’, American Political Science Review, 104:1 (February 2010), pp. 2139.

49 G. W. F. Hegel made much of the insight, borrowed from Baruch Spinoza, that ‘all determination is negation’, that is, that nothing can de definite without that which it is not. Melamed, Yitzhak Y., ‘“Omnis determinatio est negatio”: Determination, self-determination, and negation in Spinoza, Kant, and Hegel’, in Eckart Förster and Y. Y. Melamed (eds), Spinoza and German Idealism (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), pp. 175198.

50 Abrams et al., ‘Knowing what to think’.

51 Chandra, Constructivist Theories of Ethnic Politics; Tilly, Charles, Identities, Boundaries, and Social Ties (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2005).

52 Bettencourt, Ann et al., ‘Status differences and in-group bias: a meta-analytic examination of the effects of status stability, status legitimacy, and group permeability’, Psychological Bulletin, 127:4 (2001), pp. 520542, cited in Sambanis and Shayo, ‘Social identification’.

53 Cf. Biggs, Michael, ‘Positive feedback in collective mobilisation: the American Strike Wave of 1886’, Theory and Society, 32 (2003), pp. 217254.

54 For an application to international relations, see Mercer, Jonathan, ‘Anarchy and identity’, International Organization, 49:2 (1995), pp. 229252.

55 Ellemers, Naomi, Spears, Russell, and Doosje, Bertjan, ‘Self and social identity’, Annual Review of Psychology, 53:1 (2002), pp. 161186.

56 With respect to ideology, see Jost, J. T., Fitzsimons, G., and Kay, A. C., ‘The ideological animal: a system justification view’, in J. Greenberg, S. L. Koole, and T. Pyszczynski (eds), Handbook of Experimental Existential Psychology (New York: Guilford, 2004), pp. 263282. On ethnic groups, see Forehand, Mark R. and Deshpandé, Rohit, ‘What we see makes us who we are: Priming ethnic self-awareness and advertising response’, Journal of Marketing Research, 38:3 (August 2001), pp. 336348.

57 As Kalyvas puts it in the case of civil war: ‘Civil war may simultaneously reinforce some prewar cleavages while weakening or altering others.’ Kalyvas, Logic of Violence, p. 79.

58 Ellemers et al., ‘Self and social identity’.

59 Tilly, Identities, Boundaries, and Social Ties, pp. 143–4.

60 McCauley, Clark and Moskalenko, Sophia, Friction: How Radicalisation Happens to Them and Us (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 102105, analyse group polarisation phenomenon within a society. See also McAdam, Doug, Tarrow, Sidney, and Tilly, Charles, Dynamics of Contention (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp. 333336.

61 Gunitsky, Seva, ‘Corrupting the cyber-commons: Social media as a tool of autocratic stability’, Perspectives on Politics, 13:1 (2015), pp. 4254.

62 Nome and Weidmann, ‘Conflict diffusion’, explains the transnational diffusion of conflict via two mechanisms: social identities (analogous to polarisation) and norm entrepreneurs (analogous to brokers). See also Hale’s (‘Regime change cascades’, pp. 339–41) discussion of ‘mediated cascades’.

63 Carment, David and James, Patrick, ‘Secession and irredenta in world politics: the neglected interstate dimension’, in Carment and James (eds), Wars in the Midst of Peace: The International Politics of Ethnic Conflict (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1997), pp. 194231; Forsberg, Erika, ‘Polarisation and ethnic conflict in a widened strategic setting’, Journal of Peace Research, 45:2 (2008), pp. 283300.

64 Weyland, Making Waves, stresses the tendency of actors in a revolutionary situation to credit rumours that support what they want to believe; this, he argues, helps account for abrupt cascades of support for revolutions.

65 Siverson, Randolph M. and Starr, Harvey, ‘Regime change and the restructuring of alliances’, American Journal of Political Science, 38:1 (1994), pp. 145161; Owen, John M. IV, ‘The foreign imposition of domestic institutions’, International Organisation, 56:2 (2002), pp. 375409.

66 Haas, Mark L., The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics 1789–1989 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005), pp. 68; Owen, John M. IV, ‘When do ideologies produce alliances?’, International Studies Quarterly, 49:1 (2005), pp. 7399; Owen, The Clash of Ideas in World Politics, pp. 43–5.

67 Corstange, Daniel and Marinov, Nikolay, ‘Taking sides in other people’s elections: the polarizing effect of foreign intervention’, American Journal of Political Science, 56:3 (2012), pp. 655670.

68 Van Evera, Stephen, Guide to Methods in Political Science (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997), ch. 1; Mahoney, ‘Process tracing’, pp. 200–18.

69 ‘Arabic, Standard’, Ethnologue, available at: {http://www.ethnologue.com/language/arb} accessed 8 July 2015.

70 Govrin, David, The Journey to the Arab Spring: The Ideological Roots of the Middle East Upheaval in Arab Liberal Thought (Middlesex, UK: Vallentine Mitchell, 2014), pp. 127135; Saad Eddin Ibrahim, ‘Thoughts on Arab satellite television, pan-Arabism, and freedom of expression’, TBS Journal, 13 (2004), available at: {http://tbsjournal.arabmediasociety.com/Archives/Fall04/campibrahim.htm} accessed 8 July 2015.

71 Lynch, Marc, Voices of the New Arab Public (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), pp. 14.

72 Ghanam, Jeffrey, ‘Social media in the Arab world’, Centre for International Media Assistance (3 February, 2011), p. 5.

73 ‘Muslim Brotherhood’, Wikipedia, available at: {http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood} accessed 14 March 2013.

74 ‘MB around the World’, Ikhwan Web, available at: {http://www.ikhwanweb.com/articles.php?pid=35} accessed 14 March 2013.

75 ‘The International Organisation’, Ikhwan Web, available at: {http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29330} accessed 14 March 2013.

76 Govrin, The Journey to the Arab Spring, pp. 89–91, 120–3.

77 ‘Witnesses report rioting in Tunisian town’, Guardian (19 December 2013), available at: {http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/19/ozatp-tunisia-riot-idAFJOE6BI06U20101219} accessed 7 March 2013.

78 Julian Borger, ‘Tunisian president vows to punish rioters after worst unrest in a decade’, Guardian (29 December 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/29/tunisian-president-vows-punish-rioters,} accessed 7 March 2013.

79 Biggs, Michael, ‘Dying without killing: Self-immolations 1963–2002’, in Diego Gambetta (ed.), Making Sense of Suicide Missions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), p. 208.

80 ‘Algerian riots resume over food prices’, Guardian (7 January 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/07/algeria-riots-food-prices} accessed 7 March 2013.

81 Ian Black, ‘Tunisia’s protests spark suicide in Algeria and fears through Arab world’, Guardian (16 January 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/16/tunisia-protests-suicide-algeria-arab} accessed 7 March 2013.

82 Chloe Arnold, ‘Is deadly rioting in Tunisia and Algeria linked?’, BBC News (11 January 2011), available at: {http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12159028} accessed 24 August 2013.

83 Sam Jones, ‘Man sets himself on fire near Egyptian parliament’, Guardian (17 January 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/17/man-sets-himself-on-fire-egypt-protest} accessed 7 March 2013.

84 Juan Cole, ‘Christians, Muslims “one hand” in Egypt’s youth revolution’, Informed Comment (7 February 2011), available at: {http://www.juancole.com/2011/02/christians-muslims-one-hand-in-egypts-youth-revolution.html} accessed 24 October 2014.

85 Tom Finn, ‘Yemen arrests anti-government activist’, Guardian (23 January 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/23/yemen-arrests-protest-leader} accessed 7 March 2013.

86 ‘Mid-East: Will there be a domino effect?’, BBC News (3 February 2011), available at: {http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12204971} accessed 7 March 2013.

87 Peter Beaumont and Harriet Sherwood, ‘Egypt protesters defy tanks and teargas to make the streets their own’, Guardian (28 January 2013), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-latest-cairo-curfew} accessed 12 March 2013.

88 ‘Jordan protests: King Abdullah names Marouf Bakhit PM’, BBC News (1 February 2011), available at: {http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12336960} accessed 15 March 2013.

89 ‘Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’, Wall Street Journal (31 January 2011), available at: {http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703833204576114712441122894.html} accessed 7 March 2013.

90 ‘Syrian policy seal off city of Daraa after security forces kill five protesters’, Guardian (19 March 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/19/syria-police-seal-off-daraa-after-five-protesters-killed} accessed 12 March 2013.

91 ‘Libyan protesters clash with policy in Benghazi’, Guardian (16 February 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/16/libyan-protesters-clash-with-police} accessed 12 March 2013.

92 ‘Saudi Arabia bans public protest’, Guardian (6 March 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/06/saudi-arabia-bans-public-protest} accessed 12 March 2013.

93 Ian Black, ‘Saudi Arabian security forces quell “Day of Rage” protests’, Guardian (11 March 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/saudi-arabia-police-quell-protests} accessed 12 March 2013.

94 ‘Saudi Arabia’s king announces huge jobs and housing package’, Guardian (18 March 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/18/saudi-arabia-job-housing-package} accessed 12 March 2013.

95 Kamrava, Mehran, ‘The Arab Spring and the Saudi-led counterrevolution’, Orbis, 56:1 (2012), p. 98.

96 Ian Black, ‘Arrests and deaths as Egypt protest spreads across Middle East’, Guardian (14 February 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/14/middle-east-iran-bahrain-yemen} accessed 12 March 2013.

97 Ian Black, ‘Bahrain police open fire on funeral procession leaving one dead’, Guardian (15 February 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/bahrain-police-funeral-procession} accessed 12 March 2013.

98 Simon Tisdall, ‘Bahrain Royal Family welcomes Saudi troops to face down violent protests’, Guardian (14 March 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/14/bahrain-saudi-troops-violent-protests} accessed 12 March 2013. Unrest erupted in Lebanon on 25 January, but the immediate cause was the collapse of Lebanon’s coalition government owing to Sunni-Shia strife that predated events in Tunisia. ‘Lebanon’s “Day of Rage” – in pictures’, Guardian (25 January 2011), available at: {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/jan/25/lebanon-protests-rage-pictures#/?picture=371004958&index=4} accessed 12 March 2013.

99 Walt, Revolution and War (1996); as concerns ethnic conflict, Fearon, James D., ‘Commitment problems and the spread of ethnic conflict’, in Lake and Rothchild (eds), The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict, pp. 107126.

100 Aryn Baker, ‘How Egypt’s opposition got a more youthful mojo’, Time (1 February 2011), available at: {http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045446,00.html} accessed 21 September 2015.

101 Quoted in Aouragh, Miriyam and Alexander, Anne, ‘The Egyptian experience: Sense and nonsense of the Internet revolution’, International Journal of Communication, 5 (2011), pp. 13541355.

102 Donna Abu-Nasr, ‘Saudi Women’s revolution’, Bloomberg News (28 March 2011), available at: {http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=ae3CMxLu6L1U} accessed 21 September 2015.

103 Sudarsan Raghavan, ‘Inspired by Tunisia and Egypt, Yemenis join in anti-government protests’, Washington Post (27 January 2011), available at: {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/27/AR2011012702081.html} accessed 22 September 2015.

104 Bayan Parazzo, ‘On being Shia in Saudi Arabia’, Question 14, Institute for Gulf Affairs, available at: {http://www.gulfinstitute.org/wp-content/pdfs/shialifeinsaudiarabia.pdf} accessed 21 September 2015.

105 ‘King Mohamed VI’s speech to the nation’, Voltaire.net (9 March 2011), available at: {http://www.voltairenet.org/article168894.html} accessed 21 September 2015.

106 Jeffrey Goldberg, ‘The modern king in the Arab Spring’, Atlantic (April 2013), available at: {http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/04/monarch-in-the-middle/309270/} accessed 21 September 2015.

107 Adal al-Toraifi, ‘Bashar al-Assad’s views on the Egyptian and Tunisian protests’, Al Arabiya News (2 February 2011), available at: {http://www.alarabiya.net/views/2011/02/02/136049.html} accessed 21 September 2015.

108 Philip N. Howard et al., ‘Opening Closed Regimes: What Was the Role of Social Media During the Arab Spring?’, Project on Information Technology & Political Islam, Working Paper 2011.1, available at: {www.pitpi.org}. Figure 1 is a copy of Figure 3, which appears on p. 14. Howard et al. purchased approximately 3 million tweets (ibid., p. 25).

109 Ibid.

110 Olesen, Thomas, ‘“We are all Khaled Said”: Visual injustice symbols in the Egyptian Revolution, 2010–2011’, in Nicole Doerr et al. (eds), Advances in the Visual Analysis of Social Movements (Bingley, UK: Emerald Group, 2013), p. 18. Hamza Alkhateeb was a 13-year-old boy who died in police custody, evidently violently; his death helped launch the Syrian civil war. Khaled Said was an Egyptian protestor who also died in police custody, evidently violently; his death helped launch the Egyptian revolution.

111 Cited in Khamis, Samer and Vaughn, Katherine, ‘Cyberactivism in the Egyptian Revolution: How civic engagement and citizen journalism tilted the balance’, Arab Media and Society, 14 (2011).

112 Mabon, Simon, ‘The battle for Bahrain: Iranian-Saudi rivalry’, Middle East Policy, 19:2 (2012), pp. 8497.

113 Matthiesen, Toby, Sectarian Gulf: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring That Wasn’t (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2013), p. 24.

114 Kamrava, ‘The Arab Spring’, p. 99; Simon Tisdall, ‘Bahrain Royal Family welcomes Saudi troops to face down violent protests’. The Gulf monarchies claimed that Iran stirred up the unrest in Bahrain. See David Ignatius, ‘Those keystone Iranians’, Washington Post (12 October 2011), available at: {http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-12/opinions/35279466_1_iranian-plot-quds-force-gholam-shakuri} accessed 12 March 2013.

115 ‘Iran lawmakers support Bahrain protests’, Press TV (Tehran), available at: {http://edition.presstv.ir/detail.fa/170743.html} accessed 14 July 2015.

116 Ed Husain, ‘Iran’s man in Bahrain’, CFR Blog (27 April 2012), available at: {http://blogs.cfr.org/husain/2012/04/27/irans-man-in-bahrain/} accessed 14 July 2015.

117 Matthiesen, Sectarian Gulf, p. 44.

118 ‘Hezbollah denies training Bahraini protesters’, Reuters (31 March 2011), available at: {http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE72U2CR20110331} accessed 14 July 2015.

119 Genevieve Abdo, ‘How Iran keeps Assad in power’, ForeignAffairs.com (25 August 2011); Doran, Michael Scott, ‘The heirs of Nasser’, Foreign Affairs, 90:3 (May/June 2011), pp. 1725.

120 Hokayem, Emile, Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War (London: IISS, 2014), pp. 4546.

121 Simon Tisdall, ‘Iran helping Syrian regime crack down on protesters, say diplomats’, Guardian (9 May 2011), available at: {http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/08/iran-helping-syrian-regime-protesters} accessed 15 July 2015. Tehran used such raids in June 2009 to suppress the Green Movement.

122 Hokayem, Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War, pp. 55–8.

123 Fulton, Will, Holliday, Joseph, and Wyer, Sam, Iranian Strategy in Syria (Washington: Institute for the Study of War, 2013), p. 10.

124 Hokayem, Iran, the Gulf States, and the Syrian Civil War, pp. 57–8.

125 Ibid., pp. 45–51.

126 Worth, Robert F., ‘Citing U.S. fears, Arab allies limit Syrian rebel aid’, New York Times (6 October 2012), available at: {http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/world/middleeast/citing-us-fears-arab-allies-limit-aid-to-syrian-rebels.html} accessed 12 March 2013; Mariam Karouny, ‘Saudi edges Qatar to control Syrian rebel support’, Reuters (31 May 2013), available at: {http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-syria-crisis-saudi-insight-idUSBRE94U0ZV20130531} accessed 15 July 2015.

127 Rosenau, James N. (ed.), Linkage Politics: Essays on the Convergence of National and International Systems (New York: Free Press, 1969).

128 Lynch, Voices of the New Arab Public.

129 Zhukov, Yuri M. and Stewart, Brandon M., ‘Choosing your neighbours: Networks of diffusion in International Relations’, International Studies Quarterly, 57:2 (2012), pp. 271287.

130 On international variables see Gunitsky, Seva, ‘From shocks to waves: Hegemonic transitions and democratization in the twentieth century’, International Organisation, 68:3 (2014), pp. 561597. On domestic variables, see Nepstad, Sharon Erickson, ‘Mutiny and nonviolence in the Arab Spring: Exploring military defections and loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria’, Journal of Peace Research, 50:3 (2013), pp. 337349. For a helpful general discussion see Hale, ‘Regime change cascades’, pp. 343–48.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

European Journal of International Security
  • ISSN: 2057-5637
  • EISSN: 2057-5645
  • URL: /core/journals/european-journal-of-international-security
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed