Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Bairoch revisited: tariff structure and growth in the late nineteenth century

  • ANTONIO TENA-JUNGUITO (a1)
Abstract

This article revisits Bairoch's hypothesis that in the late nineteenth century tariffs were positively associated with growth, as recently confirmed by a new generation of quantitative studies (see O'Rourke 2000; Jacks 2006; Clemens and Williamson 2002, 2004). This article highlights the importance of the structure of protection in the relation between trade policy and its potential growth-promoting impact. Evidence is based on a new database on industrial tariffs for the 1870s. The results show that income, factor endowment and policy independence are important for explaining regional asymmetries between tariffs and growth. At a global level, increased protection, measured by total and average tariffs on manufactures, implied more unskilled inefficient protection and less growth, and this is especially true for the poor countries in the late nineteenth century. Protection was only positive for a ‘rich club’ if we include in this group new settler countries, which grew rapidly in the late nineteenth century and imposed high tariffs mainly for fiscal reasons.

Copyright
References
Hide All
Antweiler, W. and Trefler, D. (2002). Increasing returns and all that: a view from trade. American Economic Review, 92, pp. 93119.
Bairoch, P. (1972). Free trade and European economic development in the 19th century. European Economic Review, 3, pp. 211–45.
Bairoch, P. (1976). Commerce exteriour et development economique de l'Europe au XIX siècle. Paris and The Hague: Mouton.
Bairoch, P. (1989). European trade policy, 1815–1914. In Mathias, P. and Pollard, S. (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol. VIII: The Industrial Economies: The Development of Economic and Social Policies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.160.
Bairoch, P. (1996). Economics and World History. Brighton: Havester Wheatsheaf.
Beltran, C., Ferri, J. and Pons, M. A. (2007. Wage inequality and globalisation: what can we learn from the past? A general equalibrium approach. FUNCAS Working Paper, no. 352.
Board of trade (1905). The comparative incidence of foreign and colonial import tariffs on the principal classes of manufactures exported from the United Kingdom. British Parliamentary Papers, LXXXIV, pp. 280–320.
Bértola, L. and Williamson, J. (2006). Globalization in Latin America before 1940. In Bulmer-Thomas, V., Coatsworth, J. and Cortés Conde, R. (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Latin America, vol. II: The Long Twentieth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Clemens, M. A. and Williamson, J. G. (2001). A tariff growth paradox? Protection's impact on the world around 1875–1997. NBER Working Paper Series, 8459.
Clemens, M. A. and Williamson, J. G. (2004). Why did the tariff–growth correlation reverse after 1950? Journal of Economic Growth, 9 (1), pp. 546.
Coatsworth, J. and Williamson, G. J. (2004). Always protectionist? Latin American tariffs from independence to Great Depression. Journal of Latin American Studies, 36 (2), pp. 205–32.
De Long, B. (1995). Trade policy and American standard of living: a historical perspective. Mimeo: University California Berkeley, sixth draft.
Dejong, D. and Ripoll, M. (2006). Tariffs and growth: an empirical exploration of contingent relationships. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88 (4), pp. 625–40.
Edwards, S. (1992). Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics. 39, pp. 3157.
Edwards, S. (1998). Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know? Economic Journal, 108, pp. 383–98.
Federico, G. and Tena, A. (1991). On the accuracy of international foreign trade statistics (1909–1935): Morgenstern revisited. Explorations in Economic History, 28 (3), pp. 259–73.
Federico, G. and Tena, A. (1998). Was Italy a protectionist country? European Review of Economic History, 2 (1), pp. 7397.
Federico, G. and Tena, A. (1999). Did trade policy foster Italian industrialization: evidence from the effective protection rates 1870–1930. Research in Economic History, 19, pp. 111–38.
Findlay, R. and O'Rourke, H. (2007). Power and Plenty. Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Goldin, C. and Katz, L. F. (1999). The returns to skill in the United States across the twentieth century. NBER Working Papers, 7126.
Grossmann, G. M. and Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Grossmann, G. M. and Helpman, E. (1994). Protection for sale. American Economic Review, 84 (4), pp. 833–50.
Grossmann, G. M. and Helpman, E. (2001). Special Interest Politics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Irwin, D. A. (2001). Tariffs and growth in late nineteenth century America. The World Economy, 24, pp. 1530.
Irwin, D. A. (2002a). Did import substitution promote growth in late nineteenth century. NBER Working Papers, W8751.
Irwin, D. A. (2002b). Interpreting the tariff-growth correlation in the late nineteenth century. American Economic Review (Papers & Proceedings) 92, pp. 165–9.
Irwin, D. A. and Klenow, P. J. (1994). Learning-by-doing spillovers in the semiconductor industry. Journal of Political Economy, 102, pp. 1200–27.
Irwin, D. A. and Tervio, M. (2002c). Does trade raise income? Evidence from the twentieth century. Journal of International Economics, 58, pp. 118.
Jacks, D. S. (2006). New results on the tariff-growth paradox. European Review of Economic History, 10, pp. 205–30.
Krueger, A. (1974). The political economy of the rent seeking society. American Economic Review, 64, pp. 291303.
Krueger, A. (1997). Trade policy and economic development: how we learn. American Economic Review, 87 (1), pp. 122.
League of Nations (1927). Tariff Levels. Indices. Geneva, pp. 1–38.
Lehman, S. H. and O'Rourke, K. S. (2008). The structure of protection and growth in the late 19th century. NBER Working Papers, 14493.
Lewis, W. A. (1978). Growth and Fluctuations, 1870–1913. Boston: Allen and Unwin.
Liepman, H. (1938). Tariff Levels and the Economic Unity of Europe. London: Allen and Unwin.
Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Maddison, A. (2003). The World Economy: Historical Statistics. Paris: Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Magee, C. (2002). Endogenous trade policy and lobby formation: an application to the free rider problem. Journal of International Economics, 57 (2), pp. 449–71.
Magee, S., Brock, W. and Young, L. (1989). Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory: Political Economy in Equilibrium. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Milward, A. S. and Soul, S. B. (1977). The Development of the Economies of Continental Europe, 1850–1914. London: George Allen and Unwin.
Nunn, N. and Trefler, D. (2006). Putting the lid on lobbying: tariff structure and long-term growth when protection is for sale. NBER Working Papers, 12164.
O'Rourke, K. (1997a). The European grain invasion, 1870–1913. Journal of Economic History, 57, pp. 775801.
O'Rourke, K. (2000). Tariffs and growth in the late 19th century. Economic Journal, 110, pp. 456–83.
O'Rourke, K. and Williamson, J. G. (1999). Globalization and History. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Polity IV Project. Developed by Inter-University for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) and the University of Colorado and is housed at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland, College Park, www.cidcm.umd.edu/polity/
Pollard, S. (1982). Peaceful Conquest. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rodriguez, F. and Rodrik, D. (2000). Trade policy and economic growth: a sceptic's guide to the cross-national evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 261325.
Rodrik, D., Subranium, A. and Trebi, F. (2002). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. CEPR Discussion Papers, 3643.
Routh, G. (1985). Occupation and Pay in Great Britain 1906–1979, 2nd edn. London: Macmillan.
Sachs, J. D. and Warner, A. M. (1999). The big rush, natural resource booms and growth. Journal of Development Economics, 59 (1), 4376.
Scheuch, F. H. S. (1885). Labour in Europe, vol. 2: A Report from the US Consul in Spain in 1885.
Tena-Junguito, A. (1992). Las estadísticas históricas del comercio internacional (1890–1960): fiabilidad y comparabilidad (Estudios de Historia Económica, no. 24). Madrid: Banco de España.
Tena-Junguito, A. (1999, 2006). Un nuevo perfil del proteccionismo español durante la Restauración 1875–1930. Revista de Historia Económica, 17 (3), 579621. Translated as ‘Spanish protectionism during the Restauración 1875–1930’ in J.-P. Dormois and P. Lains (eds.), Classical Trade Protectionism 1815–1914: Fortress Europe. London and New York: Routledge (Explorations in Economic History), pp. 265–97.
Tena-Junguito, A. (2005). The good reputation of late XIX century protectionism: manufacture versus total protection in the European tariff growth debate. Paper presented to the 6th Conference of EHES, Istanbul, 9 September 2005.
Tena-Junguito, A. (2006). Assessing the protectionist intensity of tariffs in nineteenth-century European trade policy. In Dormois, J.-P. and Lains, P. (eds.), Classical Trade Protectionism 1815–1914: Fortress Europe (Explorations in Economic History). London and New York, Routledge, pp. 99120.
Trefler, D. (1993). Trade liberalization and the theory of endogenous protection: an econometric study of US import policy. Journal of Political Economy, 101 (1), pp. 138–60.
Williamson, J. (2006a). Explaining world tariffs 1870–1938: Stolper-Samuelson, strategic tariffs and state revenues. In Findlay, R., Henriksson, R., Lindgren, H. and Lundahl, M. (eds.), Eli F. Heckscher, International Trade, and Economic History. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Williamson, J. (2006b). Globalization, de-industrialization and underdevelopment in the third world before the modern era. Revista de Historia Económica. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 1, pp. 936.
Vamvakidis, A. (2002). How robust is the growth-openness connection? Historical evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, pp. 5780.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

European Review of Economic History
  • ISSN: 1361-4916
  • EISSN: 1474-0044
  • URL: /core/journals/european-review-of-economic-history
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 6
Total number of PDF views: 28 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 235 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 23rd July 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.