Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T06:01:42.005Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Voters and Abstainers in National and European Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 January 2019

Daniel Stockemer
Affiliation:
School of Political Studies, University of Ottawa, 120 University, Ottawa, ON, K1N6N5, Canada. Email: dstockem@uottawa.ca
Andre Blais
Affiliation:
Political Science Department, University of Montreal, 3150 rue Jean Brillant, Montreal, QC, H3T1N8, Canada

Abstract

Through a panel analysis conducted in Bavaria, which covers two adjacent elections – the federal elections and the European elections in 2013 and 2014 – we examine the attitudinal factors that drive citizens’ propensity to turn out. We find that abstainers have generally low levels of knowledge, interest and sense of civic duty. National-level voters have relatively high interest, knowledge and sense of duty in national politics, but not in European affairs. In contrast, European- and national-level voters have high interest, knowledge and a sense of duty for both national and European politics. This finding contextualizes the characterization of European elections as second-order national elections. While prior research has established that voters make their vote choice based on national-level politics, we demonstrate that European elections are not national elections when it comes to citizens’ decision to vote. Rather, knowledge, interest and a sense of duty about national politics are not sufficient conditions for somebody to vote in the European elections. The person needs to have the same positive attitudes about European affairs as they have about national politics to participate in European elections.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Academia Europaea 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

References and Notes

1. Schumpeter, J.A. (1976) Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (London: Allen & Unwin).Google Scholar
2. Verba, S., Schlozman, K. and Brady, H. (1995) Voice and Equality (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press).10.2307/j.ctv1pnc1k7Google Scholar
3. Buehlmann, M., Merkel, W., Mueller, L. and Wessels, B. (2012) The democracy barometer: A new instrument to measure the quality of democracy and its potential for comparative research. European Political Science, 11(4), pp. 519536.Google Scholar
4. Wattenberg, M.W. (2002) Where Have All the Voters Gone? (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press).10.4159/9780674044951Google Scholar
5. Cutts, D., Fieldhouse, E. and John, R. (2009) Is voting habit forming? The longitudinal impact of a GOTV campaign in the UK. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 19(3), pp. 251263; K. Smets and C. Ham (2013) The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Electoral Studies, 32(2), pp. 344–359.10.1080/17457280903073914Google Scholar
6. There is a fourth group of individuals; individuals, who vote in European Elections, but not in national elections. However, we note that this group of individuals is very small, which makes us focus the analysis on only three groups.Google Scholar
7. Reif, K. and Schmitt, H. (1980) Nine second-order national elections – a conceptual frame-work for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), pp. 344.10.1111/j.1475-6765.1980.tb00737.xGoogle Scholar
8. Van der Eijk, C. and van Egmond, M. (2007) Political effects of low turnout in national and European elections. Electoral Studies, 26(3), pp. 561573.10.1016/j.electstud.2006.10.003Google Scholar
9. Hobolt, S.B., Spoon, J.J. and Tilley, J. (2008) A vote against Europe? Explaining defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), pp. 93115.10.1017/S0007123408000422Google Scholar
10. Follesdal, A. and Hix, S. (2006) Why there is a democratic deficit in the EU: A response to Majone and Moravcsik. Journal of Common Market Studies, 44(3), p. 536.10.1111/j.1468-5965.2006.00650.xGoogle Scholar
11. Giebler, H. and Wagner, A. (2015) Contrasting first- and second-order electoral behaviour: Determinants of individual party choice in European and German federal elections. German Politics, 24(1), pp. 4666.10.1080/09644008.2014.949684Google Scholar
12. Adshead, M. and Hill, J. (2005) Elections to the European Parliament June 2004 – The 15 established member states. Electoral Studies, 24(3), pp. 537–545; A.H. Trechsel (2010) How much second order were the European Parliament Elections. In: W. Gagatek (Ed.), The 2009 Elections to the European Parliament: Country Report (San Domenico di Fiesole: European University Press), pp. 3–11.Google Scholar
13. Harder, J. and Krosnick, J.A. (2008) Why do People Vote? A psychological analysis of voter turnout. Journal of Social Issues, 64(3), pp. 525549.10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00576.xGoogle Scholar
14. Johann, D. (2012) Specific political knowledge and citizens’ participation: Evidence from Germany. Acta Politica, 47(1), pp. 4266; J. Moeller, C. de Vreese, F. Esser and R. Kunz (2014) Pathway to political participation: The influence of online and offline news media on internal efficacy and turnout of first-time voters. American Behavioral Scientist, 58(5), pp. 689–700.10.1057/ap.2011.20Google Scholar
15. Stewart, K., MacIver, P. and Young, S. (2008) Testing and improving voter’s political knowledge. Canadian Public Policy, 34(4), pp. 403417.10.3138/cpp.34.4.403Google Scholar
16. Luskin, R.C. (1990) Explaining political sophistication. Political Behavior, 12(2), p. 333.10.1007/BF00992793Google Scholar
17. Echegaray, F. (2015) Voting at the marketplace: Political consumerism in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 50(2), pp. 176199.10.1353/lar.2015.0032Google Scholar
18. Bowler, S. and Donovan, T. (2013).Civic duty and turnout in the UK referendum on AV: What shapes the duty to vote? Electoral Studies, 32(2), pp. 265273.10.1016/j.electstud.2012.10.011Google Scholar
19. Galais, C. and Blais, A. (2016) Beyond rationalization: Voting out of duty or expressing duty after voting. International Political Science Review, 37(2), pp. 213229.10.1177/0192512114550372Google Scholar
20. Birch, S. (2010) Perceptions of electoral fairness and voter turnout. Comparative Political Studies, 43(12), pp. 16011622.10.1177/0010414010374021Google Scholar
21. Ecker, A., Glinitzer, K. and Meyer, T.M. (2015) Corruption performance voting and the electoral context. European Political Science Review, 8(3), pp. 333354.10.1017/S1755773915000053Google Scholar
22. Kostadinova, T. (2009) Abstain or rebel: Corruption perceptions and voting in East European Elections. Politics & Society, 37(4), pp. 691714.Google Scholar
23. Clark, N. and Rohrschneider, R. (2009) Second-order elections versus first-order thinking: How voters perceive the representation process in a multi-layered system of governance. Journal of European Integration, 31(5), pp. 645664; D. Stockemer (2012) Citizens’ support for the European Union and participation in European Parliament Elections. European Union Politics, 13(1), pp. 26–46.10.1080/07036330903145906Google Scholar
24. Teixeira, R.A. (1992) The Disappearing American Voter (Washington, DC: Brookings Institute); J.E. Leighley and J. Nagler (2013). Who Votes Now? Demographics, Issues, Inequality and Turnout in the United States (Princeton: Princeton University Press).Google Scholar
25. Gallego, A. (2010) Understanding unequal turnout: Education and voting in comparative perspective. Electoral Studies, 29(2), pp. 239247; D. Stockemer (2017) What affects voter turnout? A review article/meta-analysis of aggregate research. Government and Opposition, 52(4), pp. 698–722.10.1016/j.electstud.2009.11.002Google Scholar
26. Wattenberg, M.W. (2002) Where Have All the Voters Gone? (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press); D. Melo and D. Stockemer (2014) Age and political participation in Germany, France and the UK: A comparative analysis. Comparative European Politics, 12(1), pp. 33–53.10.4159/9780674044951Google Scholar
27. Nevitte, N., Blais, A., Gidengil, E. and Nadeau, R. (2009) Socio-economic status and non-voting. In: H.D. Klingemann (Ed.), The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 85108.Google Scholar
28. Söderlund, P. (2008) Retrospective voting and electoral volatility: A Nordic perspective. Scandinavian Political Studies, 31(2), pp. 217240.10.1111/j.1467-9477.2008.00203.xGoogle Scholar
29. Corvalan, A. and Cox, P. (2013) Class-biased electoral participation: The youth vote in Chile. Latin American Politics and Society, 55(3), pp. 4768.10.1111/j.1548-2456.2013.00202.xGoogle Scholar
30. Gerber, A.S., Gruber, J. and Hungerman, D.M. (2016) Does church attendance cause people to vote? Using blue laws’ repeal to estimate the effect of religiosity on voter turnout. British Journal of Political Science, 46(3), pp. 481500.10.1017/S0007123414000416Google Scholar
31. Spohn, W. (2015) The (fragile) normalization of German identity within Europe. In: W. Spohn, M. Koenig and W. Knöbl (Eds), Religion and National Identities in an Enlarged Europe (Cham: Heidelberg).10.1057/9780230390775Google Scholar
32. Smets, K. and van Ham, C. (2013) The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Electoral Studies, 32(2), pp. 344359.10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006Google Scholar
33. Tomz, M., Wittenberg, J. and King, G. (2003) Clarify: Software for interpreting and presenting statistical results. Journal of Statistical Software, 8(1), pp. 130.10.18637/jss.v008.i01Google Scholar
34. Ideally we would have liked to present those relationships the other way around, that is, to show, for instance, the percentage of national- and European-level voters, national-level voters and abstainers among different educational groups, but that would have made a much bigger and clumsier table.Google Scholar
35. For instance the gap in interest between national and European elections is 0.9 for abstainers, 1.0 for consistent voters, and 1.8 for national level voters.Google Scholar
36. Blondel, J., Sinnott, R. and Svensson, P. (1998) People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy, and Legitimacy (Oxford: Oxford University Press); N. Clark (2014) Explaining low turnout in European elections: The role of issue salience and institutional perceptions in elections to the European Parliament. Journal of European Integration, 36(4), pp. 339–356.10.1093/0198293089.001.0001Google Scholar
37. Boomgaarden, H.G., Schuck, A.R.R., Elenbaas, M. and De Vreese, C.H. (2011) Mapping EU attitudes: Conceptual and empirical dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU support. European Union Politics, 12(2), pp. 241266.10.1177/1465116510395411Google Scholar
38. In separate specifications, we included an interaction term between political knowledge, interest and a sense of duty, as well as for corruption perception at the national and European level, respectively. Neither of these four interaction terms is either statistically significant or substantively relevant.Google Scholar