Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-5xszh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-17T17:18:11.940Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Surrender Across Battles

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 October 2018

Get access

Abstract

Why do armies sometimes surrender to the enemy and sometimes fight to the bitter end? Existing research has highlighted the importance of battlefield resolve for the onset, conduct, and outcome of war, but has left these life-and-death decisions mostly unexplained. We know little about why battle-level surrender occurs, and why it stops. In this paper, we argue that surrender emerges from a collective-action problem: success in battle requires that soldiers choose to fight as a unit rather than flee, but individual decisions to fight depend on whether soldiers expect their comrades to do the same. Surrender becomes contagious across battles because soldiers take cues from what other soldiers did when they were in a similar position. Where no recent precedent exists, mass surrender is unlikely. We find empirical support for this claim using a new data set of conventional battles in all interstate wars from 1939 to 2011. These findings advance our understanding of battlefield resolve, with broader implications for the design of political-military institutions and decisions to initiate, continue, and terminate war.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are grateful to Mark Dovich, Daniella Raz, and Kate Ruehrdanz for research assistance, and to Scott Gates, Brian Greenhill, Jim Morrow, Scott Tyson, Andreas Wimmer, and workshop participants at Princeton University for helpful comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the 2016 Peace Science Society International annual meeting, South Bend, IN.

References

Angeletos, George-Marios, Hellwig, Christian, and Pavan, Alessandro. 2007. Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks. Econometrica 75 (3):711–56.Google Scholar
Asal, Victor, Conrad, Justin, and Toronto, Nathan. 2015. I Want You! The Determinants of Military Conscription. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (7):1456–81.Google Scholar
Bartov, Omer. 1992. Hitler's Army: Soldiers, Nazis, and War in the Third Reich. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Belkin, Aaron, Clark, Michael, Gokcek, Gulriz, Hinckley, Robert, Knecht, Thomas, and Patterson, Eric. 2002. When Is Strategic Bombing Effective? Domestic Legitimacy and Aerial Denial. Security Studies 11 (4):5188.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen. 2004. Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Biddle, Stephen, and Long, Stephen. 2004. Democracy and Military Effectiveness: A Deeper Look. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (4):525–46.Google Scholar
Brooks, Sarah M. 2007. When Does Diffusion Matter? Explaining the Spread of Structural Pension Reforms Across Nations. Journal of Politics 69 (3):701–15.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2010. Regime Change and Revolutionary Entrepreneurs. American Political Science Review 104 (3):446–66.Google Scholar
Carlsson, Hans, and Damme, Eric Van. 1993. Global Games and Equilibrium Selection. Econometrica 61 (5):9891018.Google Scholar
Casper, Brett Allen, and Tyson, Scott A.. 2014. Military Compliance and the Efficacy of Mass Killings at Deterring Rebellion. Unpublished Manuscript. Available at SSRN 2434297.Google Scholar
Castillo, Jasen. 2014. Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Clodfelter, Micheal. 2008. Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Encyclopedia of Casualty and Other Figures, 1494–2007. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.Google Scholar
Cochran, Kathryn McNabb, and Long, Stephen B.. 2017. Measuring Military Effectiveness: Calculating Casualty Loss-Exchange Ratios for Multilateral Wars, 1816–1990. International Interactions 43 (6):1019–40.Google Scholar
Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2006. How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups. International Security 31 (1):748.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2015. How Social Movements Die: Repression and Demobilization of the Republic of New Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dupuy, Trevor. 1984. Analysis of Factors That Have Influenced Outcomes of Battles and Wars. Vol. 1. Technical Report, CAA SR-84-6. Dunn Loring, VA: Historical Evaluation and Research Organization.Google Scholar
Edmond, Chris. 2013. Information Manipulation, Coordination, and Regime Change. Review of Economic Studies 80 (4):1422–58.Google Scholar
Edwards, Bob, and Marullo, Sam. 1995. Organizational Mortality in a Declining Social Movement: The Demise of Peace Movement Organizations in the End of the Cold War Era. American Sociological Review 60 (6):908–27.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379414.Google Scholar
Feaver, Peter D. 2009. Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Francisco, Ronald A. 2004. After the Massacre: Mobilization in the Wake of Harsh Repression. Mobilization: An International Quarterly 9 (2):107–26.Google Scholar
Gates, Scott, and Nordås, Ragnhild. 2016. Recruitment, Retention, and Religion in Rebel Groups: Exploring the Advantages of Extremism. Unpublished Manuscript. School for International Studies, Simon Fraser University.Google Scholar
Goldman, Emily O., and Andres, Richard B.. 1999. Systemic Effects of Military Innovation and Diffusion. Security Studies 8 (4):79125.Google Scholar
Granovetter, Mark. 1978. Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. American Journal of Sociology 83 (6):1420–43.Google Scholar
Grauer, Ryan. 2014. Why Do Soldiers Give Up? A Self-Preservation Theory of Surrender. Security Studies 23 (3):622–55.Google Scholar
Hammarström, Mats. 1994. The Diffusion of Military Conflict: Central and South-East Europe in 1919–20 and 1991–92. Journal of Peace Research 31 (3):263–80.Google Scholar
Hamner, Christopher H. 2011. Enduring Battle: American Soldiers in Three Wars, 1776–1945. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.Google Scholar
Helmbold, Robert L., and Kahn, Aqeel A.. 1986. Combat History Analysis Study Effort (CHASE): Progress Report for the Period August 1984–June 1985. National Technical Information Service. Available at <www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a179734.pdf>..>Google Scholar
Holmstrom, Bengt. 1982. Moral Hazard in Teams. The Bell Journal of Economics 13 (2):324–40.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C. 2010a. The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C. 2010b. Nonstate Actors and the Diffusion of Innovations: The Case of Suicide Terrorism. International Organization 64 (1):3364.Google Scholar
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). 2016. Treaties, State Parties, and Commentaries. Available at <https://www.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/vwTreatiesByDate.xsp>..>Google Scholar
Johnston, Patrick B. 2012. Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns. International Security 36 (4):4779.Google Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163213.Google Scholar
Keegan, John. 1976. The Face of Battle. London: Penguin.Google Scholar
Kim, Hyohoung, and Bearman, Peter S.. 1997. The Structure and Dynamics of Movement Participation. American Sociological Review 62 (1):7093.Google Scholar
Koopmans, Ruud. 2004. Protest in Time and Space: The Evolution of Waves of Contention. In The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements, edited by Snow, David A., Soule, Sarah A., and Kriesi, Hanspeter, 1946. Malden, MA: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989. World Politcs 44 (1):748.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2014. Why Armies Break: Explaining Mass Desertion in Conventional War. Unpublished Manuscript. Available at SSRN 2524561.Google Scholar
MacCoun, Robert J. 1993. Unit Cohesion in Military Performance. In Sexual Orientation and US Military Personnel Policy: Policy Options and Assessment, 283331. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
MacCoun, Robert J., Kier, Elizabeth, and Belkin, Aaron. 2006. Does Social Cohesion Determine Motivation in Combat? An Old Question with an Old Answer. Armed Forces and Society 32 (4):646–54.Google Scholar
Macy, Michael W. 1991. Chains of Cooperation: Threshold Effects in Collective Action. American Sociological Review 56 (6):730–47.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., Gurr, Ted Robert, and Jaggers, Keith. 2014. Polity IV Project. Available at <http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html>..>Google Scholar
Marshall, S.L.A. 1947. Men Against Fire: The Problem of Command in Future War. New York: William Morrow.Google Scholar
McLauchlin, Theodore. 2010. Loyalty Strategies and Military Defection in Rebellion. Comparative Politics 42 (3):333–50.Google Scholar
McLauchlin, Theodore. 2015. Desertion and Collective Action in Civil Wars. International Studies Quarterly 59 (4):669–79.Google Scholar
McNeill, William H. 1982. The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since AD 1000. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1989. Assessing the Conventional Balance: The 3:1 Rule and Its Critics. International Security 13 (4):5489.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 2014. Order Within Anarchy: The Laws of War As an International Institution. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., and Starr, Harvey. 1980. Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geopolitics, and the Spread of War. American Political Science Review 74 (4):932–46.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1996. Bargaining in the Shadow of Power. Games and Economic Behavior 15 (2):255–89.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004. Bargaining and Learning While Fighting. American Journal of Political Science 48 (2):344–61.Google Scholar
Ramsay, Kristopher W. 2008. Settling It on the Field: Battlefield Events and War Termination. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (6):850–79.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 1997. The Soldier's Decision to Surrender: Prisoners of War and World Politics. Paper presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shils, Edward A., and Janowitz, Morris. 1948. Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht in World War II. Public Opinion Quarterly 12 (2):280315.Google Scholar
Showalter, Dennis, ed. 2013. The Encyclopedia of Warfare. London: Amber Books.Google Scholar
Siebold, Guy L. 2007. The Essence of Military Group Cohesion. Armed Forces and Society 33 (2):286–95.Google Scholar
Siegel, David A. 2011. When Does Repression Work? Collective Action in Social Networks. The Journal of Politics 73 (4):9931010.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., and Elkins, Zachary. 2004. The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy. American Political Science Review 98 (1):171–89.Google Scholar
Singer, Joel David. 1979. Explaining War: Correlates of War Project. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965. In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Russett, Bruce, 1948. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2003. The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations. American Political Science Review 97 (4):621–32.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C.. 2004. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):783813.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica Duffy, and Zhukov, Yuri M.. 2012. Denial and Punishment in the North Caucasus: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Coercive Counter-insurgency. Journal of Peace Research 49 (6):785800.Google Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1998. Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War. International Security 22 (4):543.Google Scholar
Weidmann, Nils B. 2015. Communication Networks and the Transnational Spread of Ethnic Conflict. Journal of Peace Research 52 (3):285–96.Google Scholar
Weisiger, Alex. 2016. Learning from the Battlefield: Information, Domestic Politics, and Interstate War Duration. International Organization 70 (2):347–75.Google Scholar
Zhukov, Yuri M., and Stewart, Brandon M.. 2013. Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations. International Studies Quarterly 57 (2):271–87.Google Scholar
Zolotarev, Vladimir Antonovich. 1997. Prikazy narodnogo komissara oborony SSSR. 22 iyunya 1941 g.–1942 g. [Orders of the USSR state commissar of defense. 22 June 1941–1942]. Russkiy arkhiv: Velikaya Otechestvennaya 13 (2–2).Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Lehmann et al. supplementary material

Lehmann et al. supplementary material 1

Download Lehmann et al. supplementary material(File)
File 754.6 KB