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Modeling Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat and Climate Change Effects in the Northwestern United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Becky K. Kerns ,
Bridgett J. Naylor ,
Michelle Buonopane ,
Catherine G. Parks  and
Brendan Rogers
Becky K. Kerns*
Affiliation:
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, 3160 NE 3rd Street, Prineville, OR 97754
Bridgett J. Naylor
Affiliation:
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry and Range Sciences Lab, La Grande, OR 97850
Michelle Buonopane
Affiliation:
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331
Catherine G. Parks
Affiliation:
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry and Range Sciences Lab, La Grande, OR 97850
Brendan Rogers
Affiliation:
Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
*
Corresponding author's E-mail: bkerns@fs.fed.us
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Abstract

Tamarisk species are shrubs or small trees considered by some to be among the most aggressively invasive and potentially detrimental exotic plants in the United States. Although extensively studied in the southern and interior west, northwestern (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) distribution and habitat information for tamarisk is either limited or lacking. We obtained distribution data for the northwest, developed a habitat suitability map, and projected changes in habitat due to climate change in a smaller case study area using downscaled climate data. Results show extensive populations of tamarisk east of the Cascade Mountains. Despite the perceived novelty of tamarisk in the region, naturalized populations were present by the 1920s. Major population centers are limited to the warmest and driest environments in the central Snake River Plain, Columbia Plateau, and Northern Basin and Range. Habitat suitability model results indicate that 21% of the region supports suitable tamarisk habitat. Less than 1% of these areas are occupied by tamarisk; the remainder is highly vulnerable to invasion. Although considerable uncertainty exists regarding future climate change, we project a 2- to 10-fold increase in highly suitable tamarisk habitat by the end of the century. Our habitat suitability maps can be used in “what if” exercises as part of planning, detection, restoration, management, and eradication purposes.

Keywords

Tamariskspecies in the genus Tamarix L.primarily Tamarix chinensis Lour. and Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb. and their hybridsBiomapperclimate envelope modelingexotic plantsEcological Niche Factor Analysissaltcedarspecies distribution model
Type
Research
Information
Invasive Plant Science and Management , Volume 2 , Issue 3 , July 2009 , pp. 200 - 215
Copyright
Copyright © Weed Science Society of America 

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