Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-qsmjn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T21:57:26.476Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Analyzing the political survival prospects of Kim Jong-un's North Korean regime through the framework of selectorate theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 July 2018

Hanhee Lee
Hanhee Lee*
Affiliation:
Graduate School of International Service, Sookmyung Women's University, 46 Cheongpa-ro 47-gil, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, Korea
*
Corresponding author. Email: hanhee7@sm.ac.kr
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The political survival of Kim Jong-un's regime in North Korea has been a major international concern since his accession in 2012. While international research has endeavored to diagnose the stability of the regime based on its limitations and weaknesses due to political, economic, and international factors, studies based on baseline theoretical models of leadership stability have rarely been undertaken. This paper employs selectorate theory to address this issue, by identifying the selectorate and winning coalition in North Korea and illustrating their relationships with Kim Jong-un's political survival. To reexamine the analytical framework and results, this study has undertaken in-depth interviews with high-level North Korean defectors who have served in key power apparatuses of Kim Jong-il and/or Kim Jong-un's regime. It analyzes how frequent co-optation of top aides, economic ideologies, and policies are utilized for political survival. It further explains the correlation of his political survival with the party-dependent bureaucracy, internal reign of terror, development of nuclear capacity, and continuous military provocations. However, as the regime further intensifies the reign of terror, the possibility of a coup d’état by the selectorate and coalition cannot be completely ruled out.

Type
Research Article
Information
Japanese Journal of Political Science , Volume 19 , Issue 3 , September 2018 , pp. 474 - 488
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barro, R (1997) Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno De Mesquita, B and Smith, A (2011) The Dictator's Handbook. New York: Public Affairs.Google Scholar
Bueno De Mesquita, B, Smith, A, Siverson, RM and Morrow, JD (2003) The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
Byman, D and Lind, J (2010) Pyongyang's survival strategy. International Security 35, 44–74.Google Scholar
Campbell, A, Gurin, G and Miller, WE (1954) The Voter Decides. Oxford: Row, Peterson, and Co.Google Scholar
Clark, WR, Golder, M and Golder, SN (2009) Principles of Comparative Politics. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Colaresi, M (2004) When doves Cry: international rivalry, unreciprocated cooperation and leadership turnover. American Journal of Political Science 48, 555–570.Google Scholar
Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (1974) Ten principles for establishment of monolithic ideology system of the party. Available at http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki (accessed 10 April 2013).Google Scholar
Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (2013) Ten principles for establishment of monolithic supreme leadership system of the Party. Available at http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=100&oid=001&aid=0006662884 (accessed 5 April 2014).Google Scholar
Gasiorowski, MJ (1995) Economic crisis and political regime change: an event history analysis. American Political Science Review 89, 882–897.Google Scholar
Hahm, C-Y (1992) Self-reliant Understanding of Continuous Revolution. Pyongyang: Social Science Publisher.Google Scholar
Hahn, H-H (1986) The Characteristics of the Socialist Society and Gesetzlichkeit of Economic Development. Pyongyang: Social Science Publisher.Google Scholar
Hayes, P and Cavazos, R (2015) North Korea in 2015: ‘Yes I Can!’ Byungjin and Kim Jong-un's strategic patience. Asian Survey 56, 68–77.Google Scholar
Hong, G-G (2016) Flood of North Korea has caused one hundred and thirty eight deaths and four hundred missing up to date, Yonhap News, 15 September 2016. Available at http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/bulletin/2016/09/15/0200000000AKR20160915017500014.HTML (accessed 20 September 2016).Google Scholar
Hyun, I-A (2015) Analyzing the structure of the North Korean leader myth and creating the Kim Jong-un myth. Journal of Peace and Unification 5, 69–107.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1980) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 8. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1981 a) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 12. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1981 b) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 15. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1983) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 23. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1984) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 28. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1994) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 40. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1996 a) Collected Writings of Kim Il-Sung, vol. 43. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, II-sung (1996 b) For the successive completion of socialist exploits, lecture with the bereaved sons and daughters, 13 March 1992; 20 January 1993, 3 March 1993, in collected writings of Kim Il-sung, vol. 44, Pyongyang: Chosun Workers’ Party Publisher, 109–110.Google Scholar
Kim, Jong-il (1996 c) Collected Writings of Kim Jong-il, vol. 7, Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, Jong-il (1997) Collected Writings of Kim Jong-il, vol. 10, Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar
Kim, S (2015) A study on the durability of Kim Jong-un regime. The Journal of Peace Studies 16, 105–125.Google Scholar
Koo, BS, Choi, JY and Kim, J (2016) Analyzing Kim Jong-un's survival strategy from the comparative authoritarian perspective. Pacific Focus XXXI, 211–231.Google Scholar
Korea Central News Agency (2011) The Korean Central Yearbook. Pyongyang: Korea Central News Agency.Google Scholar
Korea Central News Agency (2016) The Korean Central Yearbook. Pyongyang: Korea Central News Agency.Google Scholar
Korea Times (2016) The Korean Central News Agency said, we have carried out a nuclear test to judge the power of nuclear warhead, 9 September 2016. Available at http://www.hankookilbo.com/v/c204016200654dc99aead70af75fa401 (accessed 12 November 2016).Google Scholar
Lake, D and Baum, MA (2001) The invisible hand of democracy: political control and the provision of public services. Comparative Political Studies 34, 587–621.Google Scholar
Lee, G-D (2003) Successor of North Korea. Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification.Google Scholar
Lee, HH (2015) Inevitable reform? The politico-economic choices facing North Korea under Kim Jong-Un's rule. North Korean Review 11, 82–100.Google Scholar
Linz, J (2000) Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Linz, JJ and Stepan, A (1996) Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Mikheev, V (1993) Reforms of the North Korean economy: requirements, plans and hopes. The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 5, 81–95.Google Scholar
Ministry of Unification (2016) Portal of North Korean Information. Available at http://nkinfo.unikorea.go.kr/nkp/main/portalMain.do (accessed 12 October 2016).Google Scholar
Park, HJ (2014) The politico-economic dynamics of the Kim Jong-un regime as the structural backdrop of Jang's purge. Korea and World Politics 30, 1–28.Google Scholar
Park, HJ and Choi, S (2013) Fiscal Segmentation and a Variety of Taxes in North Korea. Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification.Google Scholar
Rhodong Daily (2013) Jang was sentenced to death for plotting the overthrow of the state at the special military court of the national security agency, 13 December 2013.Google Scholar
Saxonberg, S (2013) Transitions and Non-Transitions From Communism: Regime Survival in China, Cuba, North Korea, and Vietnam. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Seoul Daily (2015) Hyun Yong Chul was executed for nodding off by flamethrowers and anti-aircraft guns, 13 May 2015. Available at http://www.seoul.co.kr/news/newsView.php?id=20150513500175 (accessed 23 August 2016).Google Scholar
Snyder, S and Draudt, D (2015) First mover responses to North Korean instability: the intervention-legitimacy paradox. International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 24, 99–126.Google Scholar
Social Science Publisher (1992) Chosun Language Dictionary. Pyongyang: Social Science Publisher.Google Scholar
Social Science Publisher (1996) Ideological Theories of the Great Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il. Pyongyang: Social Science Publisher.Google Scholar
Song, H-G (2017) Kim Jong-Nam was assassinated by the Secretariat of the Party, The Shindonga, March 2017. Available at http://shindonga.donga.com/3/all/13/853891/1 (accessed 2 April 2017).Google Scholar
Svolik, M (2012) The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Warwick, P (1994) Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher (2000) Immortal Revolutionary Achievements of Great Suryong Kim Il Sung 20: Shining Solution of Succession Issue of Revolutionary Exploits. Pyongyang: Workers’ Party of Korea Publisher.Google Scholar