To meet the increasing global demand for food that is predicted over the coming decades it will be necessary to increase productivity and to do this in a way that is sustainable and efficient in its use of resources. Productivity is currently determined by the intrinsic genetic potential of the domestic plants and animals on which mankind is dependent as well as by components of the biophysical environment (temperature, water availability and quality, soil fertility, parasites, pathogens, weeds) from which terrestrial or aquatic food production is derived. Within certain limits, it is possible to manipulate plant and animal genotypes, the production environment, and the inevitable interaction between these factors, to relax constraints on productivity and potential output. Looking to the future, increased scientific understanding will undoubtedly permit this manipulation to be achieved more effectively, thus enabling the scale of production to be elevated predictably while reducing reliance on non-renewable inputs and limiting the use of more forest, grassland, wetland or coastal margin. The present paper introduces a collection of reviews that were commissioned as part of the UK's Government Office of Science Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures which reports early in 2011. The reviews explore opportunities for advances in science and technology to impact in coming decades on the sustainable productivity of terrestrial and aquatic food production systems. Collectively, they describe many of the approaches currently being considered to define, remove or relax the different genetic or environmental constraints limiting sustainable food production. These include: potential impacts of climate change on aquatic systems, the application of biotechnology, genetics and the development of systems to improve livestock, fish and crop production; approaches to the management of parasites and pathogens; weed control in crops; management of soil fertility; approaches to countering problems of water shortage; reducing post-harvest wastage; the role of advanced engineering and the potential for increasing food production in urban environments.

The challenge for the next 50 years is to increase the productivity of major livestock species to address the food needs of the world, while at the same time minimizing the environmental impact. The present review presents an optimistic view of this challenge. The completion of genome sequences, and high-density analytical tools to map genetic markers, allows for whole-genome selection programmes based on linkage disequilibrium for a wide spectrum of traits, simultaneously. In turn, it will be possible to redefine genetic prediction based on allele sharing, rather than pedigree relationships and to make breeding value predictions early in the life of the peak sire. Selection will be applied to a much wider range of traits, including those that are directed towards environmental or adaptive outcomes. In parallel, reproductive technologies will continue to advance to allow acceleration of genetic selection, probably including recombination in vitro. Transgenesis and/or mutagenesis will be applied to introduce new genetic variation or desired phenotypes. Traditional livestock systems will continue to evolve towards more intensive integrated farming modes that control inputs and outputs to minimize the impact and improve efficiency. The challenges of the next 50 years can certainly be met, but only if governments reverse the long-term disinvestment in agricultural research.

This paper is a brief review summarizing some of the important areas of activity in crop biotechnology likely to be exploited over the medium term (10–20 years), with an emphasis on agronomic traits. It provides details on various approaches to improving the tolerance of crops to abiotic and to biotic stresses. Additionally, it describes recent advances in understanding the factors that affect the intrinsic performance of plants, for example, in terms of their photosynthetic efficiency and their genetic composition. The review also provides a short selection of recently granted patents and patent applications, as this information often identifies those subjects that might be commercially exploited over this period. Finally, it provides a summary of the various predictions of the commercial development pipeline based upon a range of transgenes in major crop species.

This review introduces the main concepts behind integrated soil management (ISM) and examines the ways in which it currently operates. It suggests the scope for future technological development. The review also highlights the potential of ISM to address the challenge of meeting the demands of the increasing world population, while maintaining sustainable agro-ecosystems, as judged from long-term soil fertility, environmental and socio-economic perspectives. Changes to policy, governance and funding worldwide will be needed to conserve and manage the soil resource, and to restore already degraded systems. Research should be prioritized to ensure continued delivery of new soil technologies. Such changes must engage all land-use stakeholders, must involve educational, training and extension programmes and must embrace the multidisciplinarity required for effective soil conservation and management.

This review compares and contrasts postharvest food losses (PHLs) and waste in developed countries (especially the USA and the UK) with those in less developed countries (LDCs), especially the case of cereals in sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing food losses offers an important way of increasing food availability without requiring additional production resources, and in LDCs it can contribute to rural development and poverty reduction by improving agribusiness livelihoods. The critical factors governing PHLs and food waste are mostly after the farm gate in developed countries but before the farm gate in LDCs. In the foreseeable future (e.g. up to 2030), the main drivers for reducing PHLs differ: in the developed world, they include consumer education campaigns, carefully targeted taxation and private and public sector partnerships sharing the responsibility for loss reduction. The LDCs’ drivers include more widespread education of farmers in the causes of PHLs; better infrastructure to connect smallholders to markets; more effective value chains that provide sufficient financial incentives at the producer level; opportunities to adopt collective marketing and better technologies supported by access to microcredit; and the public and private sectors sharing the investment costs and risks in market-orientated interventions.

Weeds have been controlled so successfully by herbicides, subsequently supplemented by transgenic herbicide-resistant crops, that past intractable problems have been ignored and new ones are evolving. However, industry-led discovery of new herbicide targets is now lacking and weed science as a discipline is contracting globally. This paper describes novel technologies for dealing with major problems, including: better understanding of weed biology coupled with genomics; novel herbicide-resistant crops as well as engineered weed-competing crops; multi-target herbicides; and enhanced biocontrol agents. Together, these approaches may comprise the components of future integrated packages to slow down the evolution of new weed problems.

Improvements in farming systems and food supply will come from: increased production efficiencies per unit land area or per unit input of key components such as water or fertilizer; from less negative impact on local and global environments, allowing sustainable biodiversity goals to be integrated with production performance; and from enhanced approaches to bringing global supply and demand in balance, allowing internationally agreed goals for biosphere stability to be shaped, managed and delivered. Each stage will deliver significant improvements to current farming approaches. Modern engineering methods and technology advances have enhanced productivity in all major industries, and farming is yet to make much progress by developing and adopting these technologies. Sensors, control and integrated management systems will be major features, delivering enhanced farming productivity per unit input and per person employed, complemented by decreased environmental impacts and lower losses in the food chain. New insights into modelling and interpreting systems' performance will provide key contributions to optimization and control under complex challenges.

This paper provides a brief update on the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and marine wild capture fisheries based on the scientific literature published since 2007. Current models predict shifts in fish distributions of 45–60 km per decade, with 0·80 of species moving poleward. With a high CO2 emissions scenario, little overall change in the global maximum potential fisheries catch is projected (±1%), although with high spatial variability: decreases of 40% are projected for the tropics, with increases of 30–70% for higher latitudes. Tropical nations appear to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries production. Coupled atmosphere–ocean–fish production–human society models are beginning to be developed for specific market systems. Results suggest that how society responds can have as large or larger an effect as the strength of the climate impact. Good observations of the impacts of climate change exist for high latitude, coral reef and North Atlantic systems. Management strategies are being developed to address climate change and fisheries, including risk and vulnerability assessment frameworks, pro-active planning with stakeholders regarding potential impacts and responses and examining existing regulations to identify gaps created by altered species distributions (e.g. unregulated fishing in newly ice-free areas). Overall, fisheries governance systems are needed which are flexible and can quickly adapt to changing ecological and human societal conditions. Significant knowledge gaps include a comprehensive and co-ordinated global network of observations to help distinguish climate change from variability, and increased detail in the structure and processes of models. Necessary next steps include reducing the uncertainties of climate impacts models at present, understanding the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and the inclusion of humans into coupled models and socio-economic analyses, in particular at regional and local scales. In the intermediate term, developing nations in tropical regions are likely to be most negatively impacted, whereas developed nations at higher latitudes are most likely to benefit. In the longer term, overall marine food security will depend on the impacts of climate change on marine primary production, for which the present projections are highly uncertain. Adoption of an integrated social–ecological approach that improves the adaptive capacities of ecological and human social systems will help to sustain food security from marine wild capture fisheries.

Despite a highly variable climate and fragile soils, dryland farming systems in Australia continue to be productive and viable. This review nominates the farming practices, and their development through investment in science and technology, that have helped sustain dryland farming systems in Australia. It sets the context for dryland agriculture in Australia and specifically examines the risks and returns from technological innovations over the past 30 years. It then examines possible sources of productivity gains in the next 20 years.

Australian dryland farming systems have performed favourably compared to the agricultural sectors in most other countries over the past 30 years. Australian Research, Development and Extension (RD&E) has been a significant contributor to the realized agricultural productivity growth over this period. However, growth in the productivity of agriculture appears to have slowed down in the last 10 years: this is partly a result of extended dry conditions and declining growth in public investment in RD&E. It is reflected in slowing rates of technology adoption on broadacre farms and changes in investment confidence of farm owners.

Future productivity gains will require continued strong investment in RD&E to meet current and emerging challenges. Future technologies and policies will help improve productivity by removing inefficiencies, increasing the efficiency of resource use and developing breakthrough innovations.

As evidenced by Australia's success in productivity growth, meeting the global challenge to produce more food in the future will depend partly on investments in RD&E, risk management systems, farmer skill and human capital and policies that encourage efficiency gains.

Pests and diseases impact on crop yield and quality, and also reduce resource-use efficiency. Improved crop protection strategies to prevent such damage and loss can increase production and make a substantial contribution to food security. DNA-based technologies are likely to greatly increase the speed, sensitivity and accuracy of pest and pathogen detection and diagnosis. Rapid sequencing of nucleic acids from infected plants will aid identification of novel disease agents. Biomarkers of disease or crop damage such as volatile chemicals or blends may also be used to detect pest outbreaks. Biosensors coupled to information networks will provide real-time monitoring and surveillance of crops or stored produce and hence early warning of emerging problems and new invasive species. Challenges remain in the dissemination of new technologies and information to resource poor farmers in developing countries, although the rapid extension of the internet, mobile phones and other communication networks will provide new opportunities. Defining the genetic and molecular basis of innate plant immunity has been a major advance in plant biology with the potential to identify new targets for intervention via novel chemistry or genetic modification (GM). Identification of regulatory genes, signal molecules, pathways and networks controlling induced plant defence should lead to the development of a new generation of defence modulators, delivered either as crop protection products, or via biological agents on seeds or in the root zone. There should also be opportunities to select more responsive crop genotypes, or to develop transgenic crops tailored to respond to specific chemical cues or molecular patterns diagnostic for particular biotic threats. Sequencing of the genomes of the major crop species and their wild relatives will expand enormously the known gene pool and diversity of genetic resources available for plant breeders to access. It should be possible to identify genomic regions and genes conferring more durable, quantitative resistance to pathogens. The breeding cycle will be accelerated by high-throughput phenotyping and more efficient selection of resistance traits using within-gene markers. GM approaches will facilitate pyramiding (combining) resistance genes with different specificities and modes of action, thereby reducing the risk of directional selection for virulence. Analysis of the genomes of plant pathogens and invertebrate pests is already providing new information on genes, gene families and processes involved in host colonization and pathogenicity. Comparative genomics of species with diverse host ranges, contrasting feeding habits and different pathogenic lifestyles will identify new targets for inhibiting pest attack and aid the development of novel antimicrobial drugs and pesticides. Understanding the natural ecology of pests and pathogens, such as the factors determining host location, resource exploitation and interactions with other organisms, will improve our ability to manipulate behaviour, or exploit natural enemies or other antagonists of pest species. Volatile signals, either from natural plant sources, or engineered in transgenic crops, will be more widely used to modify pest behaviour. It may also be possible to manipulate microbial communities regulating pathogen populations and activity, and thereby recruit and retain more effective biocontrol agents. Insights into the natural diversity and activity of soil and microbial populations in the zones surrounding roots and seeds will provide new information on mechanisms of suppression regulating pest species. Fully effective interventions are unlikely, due to the complexity and diversity of the soil system, but there should be progress towards integrated control regimes combining more resistant crop genotypes (either selected or GM) with targeted management of natural suppressive processes. Harnessing new technologies and knowledge to create more durable resistant crops and sustainable disease and pest management systems will require improved understanding of the factors driving pest and pathogen adaptation and evolution. There must also be an increased emphasis on translational research and delivery, and developing strategies appropriate for lower-input production systems, if the second ‘green revolution’ is to become a reality.

Throughout the 21st century, livestock diseases will impact upon the productivity of domesticated livestock and compromise the ability to feed a growing global population. The focus of the present review is to outline how the recent rapid expansion of genetic sequence data available for both pathogens and hosts can be exploited to develop new tools to improve the ways in which livestock diseases can be controlled. In the post-genomics era of the future, there will be a more intimate understanding of the way in which pathogens interact with their hosts and the key molecules that define host–pathogen relationships; knowledge that can be utilized to generate novel diagnostics and vaccination strategies. However, experience from the global rinderpest eradication programme highlights that effective disease control is a multifactorial process. Clearly, appropriate new therapeutic and diagnostic tools can play a critical role in our ability to monitor and limit the spread of diseases. However, adequate resources are also required: these are principally financial and also include the availability of trained personnel and veterinary infrastructure; international cooperation, transparency between different countries and sharing of epidemiological data and ownership of disease; acceptance of the difference in perception of importance of diseases in the developed world v. the developing world.

Globally, agriculture accounts for 0·80–0·90 of all freshwater used by humans and, in many crop production systems, this water use is unsustainable. The current paper focuses on the potential exploitation of novel drought stress biology in both crop improvement programmes and via changed crop management practices. The aim is to deliver ‘more crop per drop’. In order to respond to the challenge of feeding a world population of seven billion and growing, it is concluded that an interdisciplinary approach is needed involving new genetic opportunities and plant breeding. It is also shown how crop management can exploit the drought stress physiology of plants to deliver improved water productivity without sacrificing crop yield.

Aquaculture development over the past 50 years has been facilitated largely by the application of science and the introduction of new technologies. Although aquaculture is a very diverse sector in products, production systems and business structures, almost every activity has benefited from scientific advances. However, the impact of technological progress is most clearly seen where there has also been substantial industrial consolidation. This has provided greater capital resources for investment and a more attractive market for suppliers of innovations to target. It has also encouraged consolidation of research capacity and stronger articulation between private and publicly funded research efforts. Further development along current trajectories is possible through advances in genomics, information technology, materials science and other areas. However, there may also be substantial disruptions if, for instance, energy becomes much more expensive, or large mono-cultures are impacted by climate change. Substantial change could also be driven by policies that aim at bringing realistic external costs of environmental services into company accounts. Research into more resilient aquaculture systems that comply more with ecological than financial accounting principles is under way, but will require substantial development to meet the challenges of rising food needs and social aspirations.

Global aquaculture production continues to grow rapidly yet a small proportion of the animals and plants being used come from managed breeding and improvement programmes. The biology of aquatic organisms offer many opportunities for rapid genetic gains as new genetic and genomic techniques make the management of improvement programmes feasible in a wider range of species. The current paper describes the application of a wide range of techniques, many unique to aquatic organisms, and their potential to secure aquaculture production in the future.

The current paper briefly summarizes the available evidence regarding the potential of urban agriculture to respond to a number of key urban challenges and reviews the perspectives on urban agriculture applied by local and national authorities. The last section of the paper briefly presents the authors’ views on the development of urban agriculture as an integral part of sustainable city development.