Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-sxzjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T09:53:02.263Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Museveni and the 2011 Ugandan election: did the money matter?*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 November 2012

Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz  and
Carolyn Logan
Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, S303, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Carolyn Logan*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and Deputy Director, Afrobarometer, Michigan State University, South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, S303, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
*
Email: conroyk6@msu.edu
Email: clogan@msu.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In February 2011, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni resoundingly won re-election. In the aftermath of the vote, which many had predicted would be competitive, analysts and opposition supporters ascribed Museveni's victory to massive pre-election spending on public goods, creation of new administrative districts, and vote buying. While the opposition could not compete with Museveni and his National Resistance Movement in access to resources, our analyses of survey data, from two pre-election surveys conducted by Afrobarometer in November/December 2010 and January 2011, and a pre- and post-election panel study, find little evidence that Museveni benefited significantly from public goods outlays, district creation, and vote buying. Additionally, we find little evidence that fear and intimidation were responsible for the results. Instead, the data suggest that Museveni's re-election was driven by an uninspiring opposition slate, widespread satisfaction with macro-economic growth, and an improved security situation, particularly in the Northern Region.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 50 , Issue 4 , December 2012 , pp. 625 - 655
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

We would like to thank Helen Lee for research assistance on this project. Mike Bratton, Eric Kramon, Simon Osborn and two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on earlier versions. Dr Conroy-Krutz acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (SES-1024031). All opinions and errors are our own.

References

REFERENCES

All Afrobarometer references are available at: www.afrobarometer.org.Google Scholar
Africa Confidential. ‘The Museveni machine grinds into gear’, 12.7.2010.Google Scholar
Afrobarometer. 2009. Briefing Paper No. 67.Google Scholar
Afrobarometer. 2010. ‘Summary of Results: Round 4.5.1 Afrobarometer Pre-Election Survey in Uganda 2010’.Google Scholar
Afrobarometer. 2011. ‘Summary of Results: Round 4.5.2 Afrobarometer Pre-Election Survey in Uganda 2011’.Google Scholar
Among, B. 2010. ‘Parties rubbish poll survey’, Saturday Vision 18.12.2010.Google Scholar
AU Observer Mission to Elections in Uganda. 2011. Available at: au.int/en/content/preliminary-statement-african-union-observer-mission-presidential-and-parliamentary-election.Google Scholar
Bareebe, G. 2011. ‘Besigye rejects “sham” elections’, Daily Monitor 19.2.2011.Google Scholar
Biryabarema, E. 2011. ‘Uganda bans SMS texting of key words during poll’, Reuters 17.2.2011.Google Scholar
Bratton, M. 2008. ‘Vote buying and violence in Nigerian election campaigns’, Electoral Studies 27, 4: 621–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carbone, G. 2008. No-Party Democracy? Ugandan politics in comparative perspective. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christopher, K. M. 2003. ‘Uganda: constitution must stand test of time’, Daily Monitor 10.5.2003.Google Scholar
Commonwealth Observer Group (COG). 2011. Uganda Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, 18 February 2011: report of the Commonwealth Observer Group, London: Commonwealth Secretariat.Google Scholar
Daily Monitor. ‘Mao speaks out on February 18 polls’, 22.2.2011.Google Scholar
DEMGroup. 2011a. ‘Report on money in politics: pervasive vote buying in Uganda elections’, available at: www.demgroup.org/downloads/pervasive-vote-buying-uganda-elections.Google Scholar
DEMGroup. 2011b. ‘Despite challenges, DEMGroup finds that the final vote count reflects ballots cast’, available at: www.demgroup.org/sites/default/files/election_day_statement.pdf.Google Scholar
EAC-COMESA-IGAD Observer Mission. 2011. ‘Press release: EAC-COMESA-IGAD Observer Missions’ interim statement on 2011 general elections in Republic of Uganda’, available at: bit.ly/LaH4om.Google Scholar
European Union Election Observation Mission (EU-EOM). 2011a. ‘Preliminary statement: Uganda 2011 Elections: improvements marred by avoidable failures’, Kampala, 20.2.2011.Google Scholar
EU-EOM. 2011b. ‘Uganda: final report – general elections 18 February 2011’, available at: www.deluga.ec.europa.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=270:eu-election-observation-mission-to-uganda-2011-releases-final-report&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=265.Google Scholar
Green, E. 2010. ‘Patronage, district creation and reform in Uganda’, Studies in Comparative International Development 45, 1: 83–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, E. 2011. Post on: themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/02/17/2011_ugandan_presidential_elec.Google Scholar
The Independent. ‘Otunnu, Besigye Fallout’, 15.9.2010.Google Scholar
Izama, A. & Wilkerson, M.. 2011. ‘Uganda: Museveni's triumph and weakness’, Journal of Democracy 22, 3: 64–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyegira, T. 2010. ‘Holes in 2010 Afrobarometer election poll’, Daily Monitor 20.12.2010.Google Scholar
Kalyegira, T. 2011. ‘How the 2011 opinion polls took on their own life’, Daily Monitor 17.1.2011.Google Scholar
Khisa, I. 2011. ‘Otunnu calls for protests’, Daily Monitor 21.2.2011.Google Scholar
Kiggundu, E. 2010. ‘Nambooze has edge in Mukono election’, The Observer 23.5.2010.Google Scholar
Kramon, E. 2009. ‘Vote-buying and political behavior: estimating and explaining vote-buying's effect on turnout in Kenya’, Afrobarometer Working Paper 114.Google Scholar
Leibowitz, J. & Sentamu, R.. 2012. ‘Public perceptions of Uganda's economy: in crisis?’, Afrobarometer Briefing Paper 101.Google Scholar
Logan, C. 2008. ‘Rejecting the disloyal opposition? The trust gap in mass attitudes toward ruling and opposition parties in Africa’, Afrobarometer Working Paper 94.Google Scholar
Mubangizi, M. 2010. ‘IPC bashes Olara Otunnu for “betrayal”’, The Observer 3.10.2010.Google Scholar
Mugerwa, Y. 2011. ‘Rivals reject new poll giving Museveni 65%’, Daily Monitor 9.2.2011.Google Scholar
Mulondo, E. 2010. ‘Opposition dismiss election survey’, Saturday Monitor 18.12.2010.Google Scholar
Mwenda, A. 2010. ‘When Museveni and the Kabaka collide’, available at: andrewmwendasblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/when-museveni-and-kabaka-collide.html, 30.3.2010, accessed 12.5.2011.Google Scholar
Mwenda, A. 2011. ‘Why Museveni won and Besigye lost and what can be done for the future’, available at: andrewmwendasblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/why-museveni-won-and-besigye-lost-and.html, 24.2.2011, accessed 16.6.2011.Google Scholar
Nalugo, M. 2010. ‘DP has resurrected, says Mao’, Daily Monitor 26.10.2010.Google Scholar
Nichter, S. 2008. ‘Vote buying or turnout buying? Machine politics and the secret ballot’, American Political Science Review 102, 1: 19–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oluka, B. H. 2010. ‘Nine radio stations decline Besigye ads’, Sunday Monitor 12.12.2010.Google Scholar
Olupot, M. 2010. ‘Opposition poll gives Museveni 67%’, New Vision 31.12.2010.Google Scholar
Olupot, M. 2011. ‘New poll gives Museveni 65% rating’, New Vision 2.1.2011.Google Scholar
Tripp, A. M. 2010. Museveni's Uganda: paradoxes of power in a hybrid regime. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicente, P. C. 2008. ‘Is vote buying effective? Evidence from a field experiment in West Africa’, unpublished manuscript, available at: www.pedrovicente.org/banho.pdf.Google Scholar
Wantchekon, L. 2003. ‘Clientelism and voting behavior: evidence from a field experiment in Benin’, World Politics 55, 3: 399–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Were, J. 2011. ‘How Museveni gained 10% and Besigye lost it’, The Independent 26.2.2011.Google Scholar

Newspapers (published in Kampala unless otherwise stated)

Africa Confidential, London; Daily Monitor; The Independent; New Vision; The Observer; Saturday Monitor; Saturday Vision; Sunday Monitor.