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Long-Term Prospects of the International Wine Trade

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 December 2018

Olivier Bargain ,
Jean-Marie Cardebat ,
Raphael Chiappini  and
Corentin Laffitte
Olivier Bargain
Affiliation:
University of Bordeaux (LAREFI), ave L. Duguit, 33608, PESSAC; e-mail: olivier.bargain@u-bordeaux.fr.
Jean-Marie Cardebat
Affiliation:
University of Bordeaux (LAREFI), ave L. Duguit, 33608, PESSAC; INSEEC U., H19, Bordeaux; e-mail: jean-marie.cardebat@u-bordeaux.fr.
Raphael Chiappini
Affiliation:
University of Bordeaux (LAREFI), ave L. Duguit, 33608, PESSAC; e-mail: raphael.chiappini@u-bordeaux.fr.
Corentin Laffitte
Affiliation:
University of Bordeaux (LAREFI), ave L. Duguit, 33608, PESSAC; e-mail: corentin.laffitte@u-bordeaux.fr.
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Abstract

This article discusses key comparative advantages of wine-producing nations and suggest prospective views on their evolution. Our methodology is twofold. First, we study comparative advantages in 16 countries using Porter's diamond. Then, we report results from a survey in which wine economists are asked to assess the future trade performance of these countries. Results are relatively consistent across methods regarding the future “heavy weights” like China, but also New Zealand and Chile, countries show the greatest potential to succeed in the future global wine trade. It is also expected that Georgia, the United Kingdom, and Australia play an important role, although to a lesser extent. Our findings indicate that comparative advantages in wine trade are neither uniform nor static; especially, terroir is no longer sufficient. The diamond approach contradicts experts from two countries in particular, France and Argentina, suggesting that experts put great emphasis on demand and market structures as key trade determinants for the future. (JEL Classifications: F14, Q17)

Keywords

international tradePorter's diamondprospectivewine
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Wine Economics , Volume 13 , Issue 4 , November 2018 , pp. 442 - 450
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists 2018 

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Footnotes

We would like to thank the participants of the 2018 AAWE conference held in Ithaca on 10–14 June and, an anonymous reviewer, and, in particular, Karl Storchmann, who helped to disseminate our questionnaire.

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