Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T08:53:30.864Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Model of Global Beverage Markets

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 September 2020

Glyn Wittwer  and
Kym Anderson Open the ORCID record for Kym Anderson [Opens in a new window]
Glyn Wittwer
Affiliation:
Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, 300 Flinders Street, MelbourneVIC8001, Australia; e-mail: Glyn.Wittwer@vu.edu.au.
Kym Anderson*
Affiliation:
Wine Economics Research Centre, School of Economics, University of Adelaide, AdelaideSA5005, Australia and Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Australian National University, CanberraACT2600
*
e-mail: kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au (corresponding author).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article describes a new empirical model of the world's markets for alcoholic beverages and, to illustrate its usefulness, reports results from projections of those markets from 2016–2018 to 2025 under various scenarios. It not only revises and updates a model of the world's wine markets (Wittwer, Berger, and Anderson, 2003), but also adds beer and spirits so as to capture the substitutability of those beverages among consumers. The model has some of the features of an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model, with international trade linking the markets of its 44 countries and seven residual regions. It is used to simulate prospects for these markets by 2025 (business-as-usual), which points to Asia's rise. Then two alternative scenarios to 2025 are explored: one simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future applications of the model are discussed in the concluding section. (JEL Classifications: C53, F11, F17, Q13)

Keywords

CGE modelingchanges in beverage preferencesinternational trade in beveragespremiumization of alcohol markets
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Wine Economics , Volume 15 , Issue 3 , August 2020 , pp. 330 - 354
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists, 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The authors are grateful for helpful comments from journal referees and financial support from Wine Australia, under Research Project UA1803-3-1, and the University Adelaide's Faculty of the Professions and School of Agriculture, Food & Wine.

References

Anderson, K. (2020a). Consumer taxes on alcohol: An international comparison over time. Journal of Wine Economics, 15(1), 42–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K. (2020b). Asia's emergence in global beverage markets: The rise of wine. Singapore Economic Review, 65(4), 755–779.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., Meloni, G., and Swinnen, J. (2018). Global alcohol markets: Evolving consumption patterns, regulations and industrial organizations. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10(1), 105–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., Nelgen, S., and Pinilla, V. (2017). Global Wine Markets, 1860 to 2016: A Statistical Compendium. Adelaide: University of Adelaide Press. Available from www.adelaide.edu.au/press/titles/global-wine-markets.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., and Pinilla, V. (2020). Annual Database of Global Wine Markets, 1835 to 2018. Wine Economics Research Centre, University of Adelaide. Available from www.adelaide.edu.au/wine-econ/databases.Google Scholar
Anderson, K., Valenzuela, E., and Wittwer, G. (2011). Wine export shocks and wine tax reform in Australia: Regional consequences using an economy-wide approach. Economic Papers, 30(3), 386–399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., and Wittwer, G. (2013). Modeling global wine markets to 2018: Exchange rates, taste changes, and China's import growth. Journal of Wine Economics, 8(2), 132–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., and Wittwer, G. (2018). Cumulative effects of Brexit and other UK and EU27 bilateral FTAs on the world's wine markets. The World Economy, 41(11), 2883–2894.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P., and Thwaites, G. (2019). The impact of Brexit on UK firms. NBER Working Paper 26218, Cambridge, MA, September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J. P., Sampson, T., and Van Reenen, J. (2017). The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: Trade effects. Economic Policy, 32(92), 651–705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dixon, P., Parmenter, B., Sutton, J., and Vincent, D. (1982). ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy. Contributions to Economic Analysis 142, Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Harrison, J., Horridge, M., Jerie, M., and Pearson, K. (2014). GEMPACK Manual. GEMPACK Software, ISBN 978-1-921654-35-3.Google Scholar
Hassan, T., Hollander, S., van Lent, L., and Tahoun, A. (2019). The global impact of Brexit uncertainty. CEPR Discussion Paper 14253, London, December.Google Scholar
Hertel, T. (ed.) (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Holmes, A. J., and Anderson, K. (2017). Convergence in national alcohol consumption patterns: New global indicators. Journal of Wine Economics, 12(2), 117–148.Google Scholar
Horridge, M. (2011). The TERM model and its data base. CoPS Working Paper G-219, July. Available from http://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-219.html.Google Scholar
Sampson, T. (2017). Brexit: The economics of international disintegration. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 163–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United Nations (2019). Comtrade Database. Available from https://comtrade.un.org/db/ (accessed August 15, 2019).Google Scholar
USTR, (2019). Notice of determination and action pursuant to section 301: Enforcement of U.S. WTO rights in large civil aircraft dispute. [Docket No. USTR–2019–0003]. Federal Register, 84(196), 54254–54264.Google Scholar
Wittwer, G., Berger, N., and Anderson, K. (2003). A model of the world's wine markets. Economic Modelling, 20(3), 487–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar