Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
×
Home

Keeping Up with the Souzas: Social Influence and Electoral Change in a Weak Party System, Brazil 2002–2006

  • Barry Ames (a1), Miguel García-Sánchez (a2) and Amy Erica Smith (a3)

Abstract

Despite weak partisanship and considerable political change in the wake of the 2002 election, three-quarters of Brazilian voters supported a presidential candidate in 2006 from the same party they had backed in 2002. This article assesses the factors causing both electoral stability and electoral change with a transition model, a model testing whether the effects of respondents' evaluative criteria depend on their initial vote choices. Social context—personal discussion networks, neighborhood influences, and the interactions of social networks and municipal context—is the major force promoting stability and change, while the impact of partisanship is limited to a small share of voters.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Abers, Rebecca, and Keck, Margaret. 2006. Muddy Waters: the Political Construction of Deliberative Water Basin Governance in Brazil. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 30, 3: 601–22.
Allison, Paul. 2001. Missing Data. Thousand Oaks : Sage.
Almeida, Alberto. 2007. A cabeça do brasileiro. 2nd ed. de Janeiro, Rio: Editora Record.
Altman, David, and Chasquetti, Daniel. 2005. Re-election and Political Career Paths in the Uruguayan Congress, 1985–99. Journal of Legislative Studies 11, 2: 235–53.
Ames, Barry. 2001. The Deadlock of Democracy in Brazil. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
Ames, Barry, and Smith, Amy Erica. 2010. Knowing Left from Right: Ideological Identification in Brazil, 2002–2006. Journal of Politics in Latin America 2, 3: 338.
Ames, Barry, and Rojo-Mendoza, Reynaldo. 2010. Urban Context and Political Behavior: Partisanship and Polarization in Two Brazilian Cities. Paper presented at the 29th International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Toronto, October 6–10.
Baiocchi, Gianpaolo, ed. 2003. Radicals in Power: Experiments in Urban Democracy in Brazil. London : Zed.
Baker, Andy, Ames, Barry, and Rennó, Lucio. 2006. Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil's 2002 Elections. American Journal of Political Science 50, 2: 382–99.
Bearak, Barry. 2004. Poor Man's Burden. New York times Magazine, June 27.
Beekun, Rafik, Stedham, Yvonne, and Yamamura, Jeanne. 2003. Business Ethics in Brazil and the U.S.: a Comparative Investigation. Journal of Business Ethics 42, 267–79.
Berelson, Bernard, Lazarsfeld, Paul, and McPhee, William. 1954. Voting: A Study on Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago : University of Chicago Press.
Bohn, Simone. 2007. Contexto político-eleitoral, minorias religiosas e voto em pleitos presidenciais, 2002–2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 366–87.
Bontempo, Robert, Lobel, Sharon, and Triandis, Harry. 1990. Compliance and Value Internalization in Brazil and the U.S. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 21, 2: 200213.
Braga, Maria do Socorro. 2006. O processo partidário-eleitoral brasileiro: padrões de competição política 1982–2002. São Paulo : Associação Editorial Humanitas Fapesp.
Braga, Maria do Socorro. 2007. O processo político-partidário brasileiro e as eleições de 2006. Política and Sociedade 6, 10: 5389.
Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos. 2006. O paradoxo da esquerda no Brasil. Novos Estudos 74, 2545.
Burbank, Matthew. 1997. Explaining Contextual Effects on Vote Choice. Political Behavior 19, 2: 113–32.
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip, Miller, Warren, and Stokes, Donald. 1964. The American Voter: An Abridgment. New York : John Wiley.
Candler, Gaylord. 2000. The Professions and Public Policy: Expanding the Third Sector. International Political Science Review 21, 1: 4358.
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2002. A decisão do voto nas eleições presidenciais brasileiros. Florianópolis : Editora da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina.
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2007a. Identificação ideológica, partidos e voto na eleição presidencial de 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 307–39.
Carreirão, Yan de Souza 2007b. Relevant Factors for the Voting Decision in the 2002 Presidential Election. Brazilian Political Science Review 1, 1: 70101.
Carreirão, Yan de Souza, and Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2004. Partidos políticos, preferência partidária e decisão eleitoral no Brasil (1989–2002). Dados: Revista de Ciências Sociais 47, 1: 131–68.
Coimbra, Marcos. 2007. Quatro razões para a vitória de Lula. Rio de Janeiro : Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos.
Converse, Phillip, and Dupeux, Georges. 1962. Politicization of the Electorate in France and the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly 26, 123.
Diggle, Peter, Liang, Kung-Yee, and Zeger, Scott. 2002. Analysis of Longitudinal Data. Oxford : Oxford University Press.
Fay, Robert. 1996. Alternative Paradigms for the Analysis of Imputed Survey Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 91, 434: 490–98.
Figueiredo, Argelina, and Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Presidential Power, Legislative Organization and Party in Brazil. Comparative Politics 32, 2: 151–70.
Frank, Zephyr Lake. 2001. Elite Families and Oligarchic Politics on the Brazilian Frontier: Mato Grosso, 1889–1937. Latin American Research Review 36, 1: 4974.
Gelman, Andrew, and Hill, Jennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
Giles, Michael, and Dantico, Marilyn. 1982. Political Participation and Neighborhood Social Context Revisited. American Journal of Political Science 26, 1: 144–50.
Hamill, Ruth, Lodge, Milton, and Blake, Frederick. 1985. The Breadth, Depth, and Utility of Class, Partisan, and Ideological Schemata. American Journal of Political Science 29: 850–70.
Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Jackman, Simon. 2003. Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy. American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 583–96.
Hochstetler, Kathryn. 2008. Organized Civil Society in Lula's Brazil. In Democratic Brazil Revisited, ed. Kingstone, Peter and Power, Timothy. Pittsburgh : University of Pittsburgh Press. 3353.
Hofstede, Geert. 1984. Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-Related Values. Newbury Park : Sage.
Hofstede, Geert, de Hilal, Adriana Garibaldi, Malvezzi, Sigmar, Tanure, Betania, and Vinken, Henk. 2010. Comparing Regional Cultures within a Country: Lessons from Brazil. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 41, 3: 336–52.
Holmberg, Soren. 1994. Party Identification Compared Across the Atlantic. In Elections at Home and Abroad, ed. Jennings, M. Kent and Mann, Thomas E.. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press. 93122.
Holzhacker, Denilde, and Balbachevsky, Elizaberth. 2007. Classe ideologia e política: uma interpretação dos resultados das eleições de 2002 e 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 283306.
Huckfeldt, Robert. 1986. Politics in Context: Assimilation and Conflict in Urban Neighborhoods. New York : Agathon Press.
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1987. Networks in Context: the Social Flow of Political Information. American Political Science Review 81, 4: 11971216.
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1993. Citizens, Contexts, and Politics. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, ed. Finifter, Ada. Washington, DC : American Political Science Association. 281303.
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1995. Citizens, Politics, and Social Communication: Information and Influence in an Election Campaign. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
Huckfeldt, Robert, Johnson, Paul, and Sprague, John. 2004. Political Disagreement: The Survival of Diverse Opinions Within Communication Networks. New York : Cambridge University Press.
Hunter, Wendy. 2003. Brazil's New Direction. Journal of Democracy 14, 2: 151–62.
Hunter, Wendy. 2007. The Normalization of an Anomaly: the Workers' Party in Brazil. World Politics 59, 3: 440–75.
Hunter, Wendy. 2008. The Pt in Power: Shifting Policies and Patterns of Political Support. Paper presented at the Conference “Latin America's ‘Left Turn’: Causes and Implications,” Harvard University, April 4–5.
Hunter, Wendy, and Power, Timothy. 2007. Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006. Latin American Politics and Society 49, 1 (Spring): 130.
Kam, Cindy, and Franzese, Robert Jr. 2007. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
Keck, Margaret. 1992. The Workers' Party and Democratization in Brazil. New Haven : Yale University Press.
Keck, Margaret, and Hochstetler, Kathryn. 2007. Greening Brazil: Environmental Activism in State and Society. Durham : Duke University Press.
Kenny, Christopher. 1992. Political Participation and Effects from the Social Environment. American Journal of Political Science 36, 1: 259–67.
King, Gary, Honaker, James, Joseph, Anne, and Scheve, Kenneth. 2001. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: an Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation. American Political Science Review 95, 1: 4969.
Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2003. Parties and Elections: Brazil's Democratic Experience Since 1985. In Brazil Since 1985: Economy, Polity and Society, ed. Kinzo, and Dunkerley, James. London : Institute of Latin American Studies. 4261.
Kinzo, Maria d'Alva Gil. 2005. Os partidos no eleitorado: percepções públicas e laços partidários no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais 20, 57: 6581.
Kotler-Berkowitz, Laurence. 2005. Friends and Politics: Linking Diverse Friendship Networks to Political Participation. In Zuckerman 2005b. 152–70.
Lazarsfeld, Paul, Berelson, Bernard, and Gaudet, Hazel. 1948. The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. 2nd ed. New York : Columbia University Press.
Lemos, Maria Carmen, and de Oliveira, João Lúcio Farias. 2004. Can Water Reform Survive Politics? Institutional Change and River Basin Management in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. World Development 32, 12: 2121–37.
Levine, Jeffrey. 2005. Choosing Alone? the Social Network Basis of Modern Political Choice. In Zuckerman 2005b. 132–51.
Lyne, Mona. 2008. Proffering Pork: How Party Leaders Build Party Reputations in Brazil. American Journal of Political Science 52, 2: 290303.
MacKuen, Michael, and Brown, Courtney. 1987. Political Context and Attitude Change. American Political Science Review 81, 2: 471–90.
Mainwaring, Scott. 1999. Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization. Stanford : Stanford University Press.
Melo, Carlos Ranulfo. 2006. Sistema partidário, presidencialismo e reforma política no Brasil. In Reforma política: lições da história recente, ed. Dillon Soares, Glaucio Ary and Rennó, Lucio. Rio de Janeiro : Editora Fundação Getúlio Vargas. 157–75.
Meneguello, Rachel. 1989. PT: a formação de um partido, 1979–1982. São Paulo : Paz e Terra.
Meng, Xiao-Li. 1994. Multiple-Imputation Inferences with Uncongenial Sources of Input. Statistical Science 9, 4: 538–58.
Mondak, Jeffrey, Mutz, Diana, and Huckfeldt, Robert. 1996. Persuasion in Context: The Multilevel Structure of Economic Evaluations. In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, ed. Mutz, Paul Sniderman, and Brody, Richard. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press. 249–66.
Morgan, T. M., Aneshensel, Carol S., and Clark, V. A.. 1983. Parameter Estimation for Mover-Stayer Models: Analyzing Depression over Time. Sociological Methods and Research 11, 3: 345–66.
Mutz, Diana. 1997. Mechanisms of Momentum: Does Thinking Make It So? Journal of Politics 59, 1: 104–25.
Mutz, Diana. 2006. Hearing the Other Side: Deliberative Versus Participatory Democracy. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
Nicolau, Jairo. 2006. Voto personalizado e reforma eleitoral no Brasil. In Reforma política: lições da história recente, ed. Dillon Soares, Glaucio Ary and Rennó, Lucio. Rio de Janeiro : Editora Fundação Getúlio Vargas. 2333.
Nicolau, Jairo. 2007. An Analysis of the 2002 Presidential Elections Using Logistic Regression. Brazilian Political Science Review 1, 1: 125–35.
Nicolau, Jairo, and Peixoto, Vitor. 2007. Uma disputa em tres tempos: uma análise das bases municipais da eleições presidenciais de 2006. Paper presented at the 31st Encontro Anual da ANPOCS. Caxambu, October 22–26.
Oliveira, Francisco de. 2006. Lula in the Labyrinth. New Left Review 42: 522.
Paiva, Denise, do Socorro Braga, Maria, and Pires Pimentel, Jairo Tadeu Jr. 2007. Eleitorado e partidos políticos no Brasil. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 388408.
Pearson, Virginia, and Stephan, Walter. 1998. Preferences for Styles of Negotiation: a Comparison of Brazil and the U.S. International Journal of Inter-cultural Relations 22, 1: 6783.
Rahn, Wendy. 1993. The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates. American Journal of Political Science 37, 2: 471–96.
Reis, Fabio Wanderley, ed. 1978. Os partidos e o regime: a lógica do processo eleitoral brasileiro. São Paulo : Símbolo.
Rennó, Lucio. 2006. Notes on the Brazilian 2006 Presidential Elections: The Winding Road to Democratic Consolidation. Colombia Internacional 64: 154–65.
Rennó, Lucio. 2007. Escândalos e voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2006. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 160–82.
Robins, James, and Wang, Naisyin. 2000. Inference for Imputation Estimators. Biometrika 87, 1: 113–24.
Rodrigues, Maria Guadalupe Moog. 2003. Global Environmentalism and Local Politics: Transnational Advocacy Networks in Brazil, Ecuador, and India. Albany : SUNY Press.
Royston, Patrick. 2004. Multiple Imputation of Missing Values. Stata Journal 4, 227–41.
Rubin, Donald. 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. New York : John Wiley and Sons.
Samuels, David. 2004. From Socialism to Social Democracy: Party Organization and the Transformation of the Workers' Party in Brazil. Comparative Political Studies 37, 9: 9991024.
Samuels, David. 2006. Sources of Mass Partisanship in Brazil. Latin American Politics and Society 48, 2 (Summer): 127.
Singer, Andre. 1999. Esquerda e direita no eleitorado brasileiro: a identificação ideológica nas disputas presidenciais de 1989 e 1994. São Paulo : Editora da Universidade de São Paulo.
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 2001. Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.0. Harvard University, June 1. http://gking.harvard.edu.
Veiga, Luciana Fernandes. 2007. Os partidos brasileiros na perspectiva dos eleitores: mudanças e continuidades na identificação partidária e na avaliação das principais legendas após 2002. Opinião Pública 13, 2: 340–65.
Weatherford, M. Stephen. 1982. Interpersonal Networks and Political Behavior. American Journal of Political Science 26, 1: 117–43.
Zucco, Cesar. 2008. The President's “New” Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil's 2006 Presidential Elections. Journal of Latin American Studies 40, 1: 2949.
Zucco, Cesar. 2012. Estabilidad sin raices: la institucionalización del sistema de partidos brasileño. Forthcoming in Los problemas de la institucionalizacion de los sistemas de partidos en America Latina, ed. Torcal, Mariano. Barcelona : CIDOB.
Zuckerman, Alan. 2005a. Returning to the Social Logic of Political Behavior. In Zuckerman 2005b. 320.
Zuckerman, Alan, ed. 2005b. The Social Logic of Politics: Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior. Philadelphia : Temple University Press.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Latin American Politics and Society
  • ISSN: 1531-426X
  • EISSN: 1548-2456
  • URL: /core/journals/latin-american-politics-and-society
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed