Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Latin America's Neocaudillismo: Ex-Presidents and Newcomers Running for President … and Winning

  • Javier Corrales (a1)

Abstract

Latin Americans have been voting for a surprisingly large number of ex-presidents and newcomers in presidential elections since the late 1980s. This article looks at both the demand and supply sides of this phenomenon by focusing on economic anxieties and party crises as the key independent variables. Sometimes the relationship between these variables is linear: economic anxieties combined with party crises lead to rising ex-presidents and newcomers. At other times the relationship is symbiotic: the rise of ex-presidents leads to party crises, economic and political anxieties, and thus the rise of newcomers. This article concludes that the abundance of ex-presidents and newcomers in elections—essentially, the new face of Latin America's caudillismo—does not bode well for democracy because it accelerates de-institutionalization and polarizes the electorate.

Copyright

References

Hide All
Alesina, Alberto. 1994. Political Models of Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Reform. In Voting for Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization and Economic Adjustment, ed. Haggard, Stephan and Webb, Steve B.. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 3760.
Althoff, Adrian. 2005. How Ex-presidents Survive: the Cases of Hugo Banzer and Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada in Bolivia. Mimeograph. Amherst College.
Centro de Estudios Públicos. 2004. Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública no. 48. Santiago, Chile, December. <http://www.cepchile.cl>.
Chevalier, François. 1962. “Caudillos” et “caciques” en Amérique: contribution à l'étude des liens personnels. Bulletin Hispanique 64: Mélanges offerts à Marcel Bataillon par les Hispanistes Français. 3047.
Close, David, and Deonandan, Kalowatie, eds. 2004. Undoing Democracy: The Politics of Electoral Caudillismo. Lanham: Lexington Books.
Coppedge, Michael. 2003. Popular Sovereignty versus Liberal Democracy in Venezuela. In Constructing Democratic Governance, ed. Diamond, Larry and Gunther, Richard. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 165–92.
Corrales, Javier. 2003. Market Reforms. In Constructing Democratic Governance in Latin America, ed. Domínguez, Jorge I. and Shifter, Michael. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 7499.
Correa, Raquel. 2004. “Quiero ser protagonista del futuro de Chile.” Entrevista al ex-presidente Eduardo Frei. El Mercurio (Santiago), February 1.
Dalton, Russell J., and Wattenberg, Martin P.. 1993. The Not So Simple Act of Voting. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline, vol. II., ed. Finifter, A. W.. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association. 193218.
Datum International. 2003. Estudio de opinión pública en la Gran Lima. Lima, August 18.
Domingo, Pilar. 2005. Democracy and New Social Forces in Bolivia. Social Forces 83, 4: 1727–44.
Domínguez, Jorge I., and Kinney Giraldo, Jeanne. 1996. Conclusion: Parties, Institutions, and Market Reforms in Constructing Democracies. In Constructing Democratic Governance, ed. Domínguez, and Lowenthal, Abraham. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 341.
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Edwards, Sebastian. 1995. Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From Despair to Hope. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Ellner, Steve. 1996. Political Party Factionalism and Democracy in Venezuela. Latin American Perspectives 23, 90: 87109.
Feinberg, Richard. 2006. Nicaragua Elections: Too Close to Call. Latin Business Chronicle, October 16.
Feinberg, Richard, and Kurtz-Phelan, Daniel. 2006. Nicaragua between Caudillismo and Modernity: the Sandinistas Redux World Policy Journal 23, 2 (Summer): 7684.
Fernández, Raquel, and Rodrik, Dani. 1991. Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty. American Economic Review 81, 5: 1146–55.
Freedom House. Various years. Freedom in the World, <http://www.freedomhouse.org> Accessed January 25, 2007.
Gerring, John. 2007. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gunther, Richard, Ramón Montero, José, and Torcal, Mariano. 2007. Democracy and Intermediation: Some Attitudinal and Behavioural Dimensions. In Democracy, Intermediation, and Voting in Four Continents, ed. Gunther, Montero, and Puhle, Hans-Jürgen. New York: Oxford University Press. 2973.
Hagopian, Frances. 1998. Democracy and Political Representation in Latin America in the 1990s: Pause, Reorganization, or Decline? In Fault Lines of Democracy in Post-Transition Latin America, ed. Agüero, Felipe and Stark, Jeffrey. Coral Gables: North-South Center Press. 99143.
Hagopian, Frances. 2005. Conclusions: Government Performance, Political Representation, and Public Perceptions of Contemporary Democracy in Latin America. In The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America: Advances and Setbacks, ed. Hagopian, and Mainwaring, Scott P.. New York: Cambridge University Press. 319–62.
Hamill, Hugh M. Jr., 1965. Introduction. In Dictatorship in Spanish America, ed. Hamill, . New York: Alfred A. Knopf. 325.
Hellinger, Daniel. 1999. Electoral and Party Politics. In Developments in Latin American Political Economy, ed. Buxton, Julia and Phillips, Nicola. Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press. 4971.
Huber, Evelyne, and Solt, Fred. 2004. Successes and Failures of Neoliberalism. Latin American Research Review 39, 3: 150–64.
Huber, Evelyne, and Stephens, John D.. 2001. Development and Crisis of the Welfare State: Parties and Policies in Global Markets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Hunter, Wendy, and Power, Timothy J.. 2007. Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006. Latin American Politics and Society 49, 1 (Spring): 130.
Huntington, Samuel J. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Kucynski, Pedro-Pablo. 1988. Latin American Debt. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Levitsky, Steven, and Cameron, Maxwell A.. 2003. Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori's Peru. Latin American Politics and Society 45, 3 (Fall): 133.
Linz, Juan. 1994. Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy: Does It Make a Difference? In The Failure of Presidential Democracy: Comparative Perspectives, ed. Linz, and Valenzuela, Arturo. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 387.
Lora, Eduardo, and Panizza, Ugo. 2003. The Future of Structural Reform. Journal of Democracy 14, 2: 123–33.
Madrid, Raúl. 2005. Indigenous Voters and Party System Fragmentation in Latin America. Electoral Studies 24, 4 (December): 689707.
Mainwaring, Scott P. 2006a. The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Journal of Democracy 17: 1327.
Mainwaring, Scott P. 2006b. State Deficiencies, Party Competition, and Confidence in Democratic Representation in the Andes. In The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes, ed. Mainwaring, Ana María Bejarano, and Pizarro Leongómez, Eduardo. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 295345.
Mayorga, René Antonio. 2005. Bolivia's Democracy at the Crossroads. In The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America: Advances and Setbacks, ed. Hagopian, Frances and Mainwaring, Scott P.. New York: Cambridge University Press. 149–78.
Molina, José. 2000. Comportamiento electoral en Venezuela 1998–2000: cambio y continuidad. Revista Venezolana de Economía y Ciencias Sociales 6, 3: 4568.
Payne, Mark J., Zovatto, Daniel G., Carrillo Flórez, Ferando, and Alla-mand, Andrés. 2002. Democracies in Development: Politics and Reform in Latin America. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.
Popkin, Samuel L. 1992. The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2007. Latin America's Populist Revival. SALS Review 27, 1 (Winter-Spring): 315.
Roberts, Kenneth, and Wibbels, Erik. 1999. Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: a Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. American Political Science Review 93, 3: 575–90.
Rodrik, Dani. 1996. Understanding Economic Policy Reform. Journal of Economic Literature 34, 1: 941.
Sabatini, Christopher. 2003. Decentralization and Political Parties. Journal of Democracy 14, 2: 138–50.
Samuels, David. 2008. Democracy Under Lula. In Constructing Democratic Governance, 3rd edition, ed. Domínguez, Jorge I. and Shifter, Michael. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
San Martín, Nancy. 2006. Ortega's Old Guard Has Mostly Splintered. Miami Herald, December 14, 20A.
Schedler, Andreas, Plattner, Mark F., and Diamond, Larry, eds. 1999. The Self-Restraining State: Power and Accountability in New Democracies. Boulder: Lynne Reinner.
Selverston, Melina. 1997. The Unraveling of a Presidency. NACLA Report on the Americas 30, 6: 1112.
Sheahan, John. 2002. Alternative Models of Capitalism in Latin America. In Models of Capitalism: Lessons for Latin America, ed. Huber, Evelyne. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press. 2552.
Siavelis, Peter M., and Morgenstern, Scott. 2004. Political Recruitment and Candidate Selection in Latin America: a Framework for Analysis. Paper presented at the 25th International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Las Vegas, NV, October 6–8.
Silva, Rodrigo, and Guerra, Mónica. 2004. Senador vitalicio Eduardo Frei dice no ser candidato presidencial aun. El Mercurio (Santiago), October 18.
Singh, Anoop. 2006. Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America. Occasional Paper 06/166. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. July.
Singh, Anoop, Belaisch, Agnès, Collyns, Charles, De Masi, Paula, Krieger, Reva, Meredith, Guy, and Rennhack, Robert. 2005. Stabilization and Reform in Latin America: A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience Since the Early1990s. Occasional Paper 238. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
Stokes, Susan. 2001. Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Sturzenegger, Federico, and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin. 2007. Debt Default and Lessons from a Decade of Crisis. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Teitel, Simon, ed. 1992. Towards a New Development Strategy for Latin America: Pathways from Hirschman's Thought. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.
Thaler, R. 1980. Towards a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1: 3960.
Valenzuela, Arturo. 2004. Latin American Presidencies Interrupted. Journal of Democracy 15, 4: 519.
Westhoff, Frank, and Corrales, Javier. 2008. Statistical Appendix for “Latin America's Neocaudillismo.” <https://cms.amherst.edu/users/C/jcorrales/forthcorning>.
Weyland, Kurt. 2002. The Politics of Market Reform in Fragile Democracies: Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Williamson, John, and Kucynski, Pedro-Pablo, eds. 2003. After the Washington Consensus: Restarting Growth and Reform in Latin America. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
World Bank. 2002. Globalization, Growth, and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Yáñez, Nelly. 2005. Ex presidente Frei se baja de la carrera por la presidencia. El Mercurio (Santiago), January 5.
Zettelmeyer, Jeromin. 2006. Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments. Working Paper 06/210. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. September.

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed