Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T07:04:56.062Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 June 2012

M. Comba ,
S. Martorano-Raimundo  and
E. Venturino
M. Comba
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Matematica “Giuseppe Peano”, via Carlo Alberto 10, Università di Torino, 10123 Torino, Italia
S. Martorano-Raimundo
Affiliation:
Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto Oscar Freire, CEP : 05405-000, Rua Teodoro Sampaio, 115, São Paulo, S.P., Brazil
E. Venturino*
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Matematica “Giuseppe Peano”, via Carlo Alberto 10, Università di Torino, 10123 Torino, Italia
*
⋆ Corresponding author. E-mail: ezio.venturino@unito.it
Get access

Abstract

A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella and zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.

Keywords

varicella zoster virusvaccinecost-effectivenessepidemics
Type
Research Article
Information
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena , Volume 7 , Issue 3: Epidemiology , 2012 , pp. 62 - 77
Copyright
© EDP Sciences, 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arvin, A. M., Gershon, A. A.. Live attenuated varicella vaccine. Ann. Rev. Microbiol., 50 (1996), 59–100. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arvin, A. M., Gershon, A. A.. Live attenuated varicella vaccine. Ann Rev Microbiol., 50 (1996), 59–100. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brisson, M., Edmunds, W. J., Gay, N. J., Law, B., De Serres, G.. Modelling the Impact of Immunization on the Epidemiology of Varicella Zoster Virus. Epidemiology and Infection, 125 (2000), 651–669. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
CDC. Prevention of varicella : recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR, 56 (2007), No. RR4, OpenURL.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Prevention of varicella : recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR, 45 (1997), No. RR-11, 35–40.
Deguen, S., Flahault, A.. Impact on Immunization of Seasonal Cycle of Chickenpox. European Journal of Epidemiology, 16 (2000), 1177–1181. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., Metz, J. A. J.. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28 (1990), No. 4, 365–382, Doi : 10.1007/BF00178324. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Edmunds, W. J., Brisson, M.. The effect of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus. Journal of Infection, 44 (2002), 211–219. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forde, J. E., Meeker, B.. A model of varicella-zoster reactivation. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 7 (2010), 765–777. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garnett, G. P., Ferguson, N. M.. Predicting the effect of varicella vaccine on subsequent cases of zoster and varicella. Rev. Med. Virol., 6 (1996), 151–161. 3.0.CO;2-V>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garnett, G. P., Grenfell, B. T.. The Epidemiology of Varicella-Zoster Virus Infections : The Influence of Varicella on the Prevalence of Herpes Zoster. Epidemiology and Infection, 108 (1992), 513–528. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hambleton, S., Steinberg, S. P., La Russa, P. S., Shapiro, E. D., Gershon, A. A.. Risk of Herpes Zoster in adults immunized with varicella vaccine. J. Infect. Dis., 197 (2008), S196–199. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hope-Simpson, R. E.. The nature of herpes zoster : a long term study and a new hypothesis. Proc. Roy. Soc. Med., 58 (1965), 9–20. Google Scholar
Hornberger, J., Robertus, K.. Cost-Effectiveness of a Vaccine To Prevent Herpes Zoster and Postherpetic Neuralgia in Older Adults. Ann Intern Med., 145 (2006), 317–325. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Karhunen, M., Leino, T., Salo, H., Davidkin, I., Kilpi, T., Auranen, K.. Modelling the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and zoster. Epidemiol Infect., 138 (2010), No. 4, 469–481. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oxman, M. N., Levin, M. J., Johnson, G. R., Schmader, K. E., Straus, S. E., Gelb, L. D., Arbeit, R. D., Simberkoff, M. S., Gershon, A. A., Davis, L. E., Weinberg, A., Boardman, K. D., Williams, H. M., Hongyuan Zhang, J., Peduzzi, P. N., Beisel, C. E., Morrison, V. A., Guatelli, J. C., Brooks, P. A., Kauffman, C. A., Pachucki, C. T., Neuzil, K. M., Betts, R. F., Wright, P. F., Griffin, M. R., Brunell, P., Soto, N. E., Marques, A. R., Keay, S. K., Goodman, R. P., Cotton, D. J., Gnann, J. W. Jr., Loutit, J., Holodniy, M., Keitel, W. A., Crawford, G. E., Yeh, S.-S., Lobo, Z., Toney, J. F., Greenberg, R. N., Keller, P. M., Harbecke, R., Hayward, A. R., Irwin, M. R., Kyriakides, T. C., Chan, C. Y., Chan, I. S. F., Wang, W. W. B., Annunziato, P. W., Silber, J. L.. A vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults. N. Engl. J. Med., 352 (2005), No. 22, 2271–2284. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oxman, M. N., Levin, M.J.. Vaccination against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia. J Infect Dis., 197 (2008), Suppl. 2, S228–5236. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Socan, M., Berginc, N., Lajovic, J.. Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia. BMC Public Health, 10 :360 (2010), 1–6. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schuette, M. C., Hethcote, H. W.. Modeling the effects of varicella vaccination programs on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles. Bull Math Biol., 61 (1999), No. 6, 1031–1064. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
G. Soldato. Nuove strategie preventive vaccinali : vantaggi e limiti del vaccino antivaricella (New preventive vaccine strategies : advantages and limits of the vaccine against chickenpox). Thesis (Advisor Prof. C. Granchelli), University “G. D’Annunzio” of Chieti-Pescara, Italy, 2005.
Thiry, N., Beutels, P., Tancredi, F., Romanò, L., Zanetti, A., Bonanni, P., Gabutti, G., Van Damme, P.. An economic evaluation of varicella vaccination in italian adolescents. Vaccine 22, (2004), 27-28, 3546–3562. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Hoek, A. J., Gay, N., Opstelten, W., Edmunds, W. J.. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against Herpes Zoster in England and Wales. Vaccine, 27 (2009), No. 9, 1454–1467. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Van Hoek, A. J., Melegaro, A., Zaghenid, E. W., Edmunds, J., Gay, N.. Modelling the impact of a combined varicella and zoster vaccination programme on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in England. Vaccine, 29 (2011), 2411–2420. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wharton, M.. The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infections. Infect Dis Clinics N Am, 10 (1996), 571–581. CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed