No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
THE WORLD ECONOMY: Global outlook overview
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 February 2020
Abstract
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
- Type
- Forecast Summaries
- Information
- Copyright
- © National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020
Footnotes
*
All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Iana Liadze (i.liadze@niesr.ac.uk).
We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and compiling the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 24 January 2020. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 16 January 2020. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline.
References
REFERENCES
Ball, L.M., and Mazumder, S. (2019), ‘A Phillips Curve for the Euro Area’, NBER Working Paper No. w26450, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldara, D., Prestipino, A., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P. and Raffo, A. (2019), ‘The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty’, International Finance Discussion Papers Number 1256, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carreras, O. and Kirby, S. (2016), ‘Is the global trade slowdown a risk to our forecast outlook?’, National Institute Economic Review, February, 235, pp. F14–15.Google Scholar
Cœuré, B. (2019), ‘Monetary policy: lifting the veil of effectiveness’, speech at Frankfurt am Main, 18 December. Transcript available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.%20sp191218~12a0385d3b.en.html.Google Scholar
Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A. and Ruta, M. (2014), ‘Slow trade’, Finance and Development, 51(4).Google Scholar
Draghi, M. (2019), ‘Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)’, ECB, 12 September.Google Scholar
Hantzsche, A. (2018), ‘The wage Phillips curve – another piece of the puzzle’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, blog, 24 May.Google Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Liadze, I. (2018), ‘The war on trade: beggar thy neighbour – beggar thyself?’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May, F46–47.Google Scholar
Hurst, I. and Liadze, I. (2019), ‘Fiscal stimulus in China to boost global growth’, National Institute Economic Review, 248, May, F53.Google Scholar
Kara, A. and Liadze, I. (2019), ‘The textbook response: using Chinese fiscal policy to offset US tariffs’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, blog, 2 May.Google Scholar
Kara, A., Liadze, I. and Paczos, M. (2019), ‘The impact of a tariff on automobiles’, National Institute Economic Review, 249, August, pp. F52–4.Google Scholar
Lagarde, C. (2019), ‘Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)’, ECB, 12 December.Google Scholar
Lennard, J. and Theodoridis, K. (2018), ‘Oil and the macroeconomy’, National Institute Economic Review, 243, February, F48–9.Google Scholar
Lenoel, C. (2018), ‘Predicting recessions in the United States with the yield curve’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May, F42–3.Google Scholar
Lenoel, C. (2019a), ‘Is the US yield curve signalling that a recession is on the way?’, National Institute Economic Review, 248, May, F42–3.Google Scholar
Lenoel, C. (2019b), ‘Could a fiscal boost raise inflation in the Euro Area?’, National Institute Economic Review, 250, November, pp. F46–7.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. (2018a), ‘Trade wars – any winners?’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August, F47.Google Scholar
Lenoel, C. (2018b), ‘Trade wars – the saga continues’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F38–9.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017a), ‘The macroeconomic implications of increasing tariffs on US imports’, NiGEM Observations, No 12.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017b), ‘US monetary policy and its impact on emerging market economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 240, May, F62-3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B (2018), ‘Global spillover effects of US monetary tightening’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F42–3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Piggott, R. (2019), ‘Japan consumption tax increase’, National Institute Economic Review, 247, February, F65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mao, X., Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2019), ‘Recent inflation trends in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, November, 250, F50–51.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018a), ‘The re-emergence of concerns about debt’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May, F44.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018b), ‘The risks of rising global indebtedness’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2019a) ‘The risks from rising real house prices’, National Institute Economic Review, February, 247, F55–7.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2019b), ‘Will the 2010s be viewed as a period of global growth and stability?’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, blog, 30 April.Google Scholar
Sanchez, P.J. and Young, G. (2019), ‘The (in)effectiveness of the latest round of ECB asset purchases’, National Institute Economic Review, 250, November, pp F42–3.Google Scholar
Shin, H.S. (2019), ‘What is behind the recent slowdown?’, Presentation at the ‘Public Finance Dialogue’ workshop, German Federal Ministry of Finance and Centre for European Policy Research, May 2019.Google Scholar
You have
Access