Skip to main content
×
×
Home

International Migration and Military Intervention in Civil War*

  • Vincenzo Bove and Tobias Böhmelt
Abstract

Which factors make it more likely that states militarily intervene in ongoing intrastate wars? We develop the argument that migrants, i.e., (1) people coming from the civil-war state living in a potential intervener state (immigrants) and (2) those living in the country at war who stem from the third party (emigrants), influence the decision of external states to intervene in civil wars. Our theoretical framework is thus based on a joint focus on domestic-level determinants in a civil-war country and in foreign states. Primarily based on an accountability rationale, we also claim that the third-party’s regime type has an intervening influence. Using quantitative methods, our empirical results generally support the theory, although there is only weak evidence for the intervening influence of a third party’s level of democracy.

Copyright
Footnotes
Hide All
*

Vincenzo Bove is a Reader in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (v.bove@warwick.ac.uk). Tobias Böhmelt is a Reader in the Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ; and a Research Fellow of the Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Haldeneggsteig 4, 8092 Zurich (tbohmelt@essex.ac.uk). The authors thank the journal’s editor, Vera Töger, four anonymous reviewers and participants of the 2 EPEC Workshop in Political Economy for helpful comments that helped to improve the article. To view supplementary material for this article, please visit https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/PSRM

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Aydin, Aysegul. 2008. ‘Choosing Sides: Economic Interdependence and Interstate Disputes’. Journal of Politics 70(4):10981108.
Aydin, Aysegul. 2010. ‘Where Do States Go? Strategy in Civil War Intervention’. Conflict Management and Peace Science 27(1):4766.
Beine, Michel, Docquier, Frédéric, and Özden, Çağlar. 2011. ‘Diasporas’. Journal of Development Economics 95(1):3041.
Bove, Vincenzo, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Sekeris, Petros G. 2016. ‘Oil Above Water? Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(7):12511277.
Bove, Vincenzo, and Böhmelt, Tobias. 2016. ‘Does Immigration Induce Terrorism?’. The Journal of Politics 78(2):572588.
Brinkerhoff, Jennifer M. 2011. ‘Diasporas and Conflict Societies: Conflict Entrepreneurs, Competing Interests, or Contributors to Stability and Development?Conflict, Security & Development 11(2):115143.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph, and Morrow, James. 2005. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Card, David. 2001. ‘Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration’. Journal of Labor Economics 19(1):2264.
Carter, David B., and Signorino, Curtis S.. 2010. ‘Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data’. Political Analysis 18(3):271292.
Cochrane, Feargal. 2007. ‘Irish-America, the End of the IRA’s Armed Struggle and the Utility of Soft Power’. Journal of Peace Research 44(2):215231.
Cohen, Robin. 1996. ‘Diasporas and the Nation-State: From Victims to Challengers’. International Affairs 72(3):507520.
Constant, Amelie F., and Zimmermann, Klaus F.. 2013. International Handbook on the Economics of Migration. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Cunningham, David, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Salehyan, Idean. 2009. ‘It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4):570597.
Davis, David R., and Moore, Will H.. 1997. ‘Ethnicity Matters: Transnational Ethnic Alliances and Foreign Policy Behavior’. International Studies Quarterly 41(1):171184.
DeWind, Josh, and Segura, Renata. 2014. Diaspora Lobbies and the US Government: Convergence and Divergence in Making Foreign Policy. New York: NYU Press.
Dowty, Alan, and Loescher, Gil. 1996. ‘Refugee Flows as Grounds for International Action’. International Security 21(1):4371.
Faist, Thomas. 2000. The Volume and Dynamics of International Migration and Transnational Social Spaces. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Fearon, James D., Kasara, Kimuli, and Laitin, David D.. 2007. ‘Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset’. American Political Science Review 101(1):187193.
Findley, Michael G., and Marineau, Josiah F.. 2015. ‘Lootable Resources and Third-Party Intervention Into Civil Wars’. Conflict Management and Peace Science 32(5):465486.
Findley, Michael G., and Teo, Tze Kwang. 2006. ‘Rethinking Third-Party Interventions Into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach’. Journal of Politics 68(4):828837.
Finnemore, Martha. 2004. The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs About the Use of Force. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
Gartner, Scott S. 2008. ‘The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach’. American Political Science Review 102(1):95106.
Gent, Stephen E. 2007. ‘Strange Bedfellows: The Strategic Dynamics of Major Power Military Interventions’. Journal of Politics 69(4):10891102.
Gibler, Douglas M. 2008. International Military Alliances, 1648-2008. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2007. ‘Transnational Dimensions of Civil War’. Journal of Peace Research 44(3):293309.
Gurr, Ted Robert, Harff, Barbara, Marshall, Monty G., and Scarritt, James R.. 1993. Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Harris, Simon. 2010. ‘Humanitarianism in Sri Lanka: Lessons Learned?’ Feinstein Briefing Paper, pp. 2000–9.
Hillebrecht, Courtney, White, Tyler R., and McMahon, Patrice C.. 2013. State Responses to Human Security: At Home and Abroad. London: Routledge.
Kathman, Jacob D. 2011. ‘Civil War Diffusion and Regional Motivations for Intervention’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 55(6):847876.
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. ‘Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation’. American Journal of Political Science 44(2):347361.
Koga, Jun. 2011. ‘Where Do Third Parties Intervene? Third Parties’ Domestic Institutions and Military Interventions in Civil Conflicts’. International Studies Quarterly 55(4):11431166.
Krcmaric, Daniel. 2014. ‘Refugee Flows, Ethnic Power Relations, and the Spread of Conflict’. Security Studies 23(1):182216.
Lemke, Douglas, and Regan, Patrick M.. 2004. The Scourge of War: New Extensions on an Old Problem. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press chapter Interventions as Influence, pp. 145–68.
Miller, Gina Lei, and Hencken-Ritter, Emily. 2014. ‘Emigrants and the Onset of Civil War’. Journal of Peace Research 51(1):5164.
Mitchell, Christopher R. 1970. ‘Civil Strife and the Involvement of External Parties’. International Studies Quarterly 14(2):166194.
Moore, Will H., and Shellman, Stephen M.. 2007. ‘Whither Will They Go? A Global Study of Refugees’ Destinations, 1965-1995’. International Studies Quarterly 51(4):811834.
Nome, Martin Austvoll. 2013. ‘Transnational Ethnic Ties and Military Intervention: Taking Sides in Civil Conflicts in Europe, Asia, and North Africa, 1944-99’. European Journal of International Relations 19(4):747771.
Özden, Çağlar, Parsons, Christopher R., Schiff, Maurice, and Walmsley, Terrie L.. 2011. ‘Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000’. World Bank Economic Review 25(1):1256.
Pearson, Frederic S., and Baumann, Robert A.. 1993. ‘International Military Intervention, 1946-1988’. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
Pickering, Jeffrey, and Kisangani, Emizet F.. 2009. ‘The International Military Intervention Dataset: An Updated Resource for Conflict Scholars’. Journal of Peace Research 46(4):589599.
Regan, Patrick M. 1998. ‘Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflicts’. Journal of Politics 60(3):754779.
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. ‘Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1):5573.
Reiter, Dan, and Stam, Allan C.. 1998. ‘Democracy and Battlefield Military Effectiveness’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(3):259277.
Rouvez, Alain. 1994. Disconsolate Empires: French, British, and Belgian Military Involvement in Post-Colonial Sub-Saharan Africa. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.
Saideman, Stephen M. 2002. ‘Discrimination in International Relations: Analyzing External Support for Ethnic Groups’. Journal of Peace Research 39(1):2750.
Salehyan, Idean, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2006. ‘Refugees and the Spread of Civil War’. International Organization 60(2):335366.
Shain, Yossi. 1999. Marketing the American Creed Abroad: Diasporas in the US and their Homelands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Shain, Yossi. 2002. ‘The Role of Diasporas in Conflict Perpetuation or Resolution’. SAIS Review 22(2):115144.
Shain, Yossi, and Barth, Aharon. 2003. ‘Diasporas and International Relations Theory’. International Organization 57(3):449479.
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart, and Stuckey, John. 1972. Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965. In Bruce M. Russett, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers, 19–48. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Smith, Hazel, and Stares, Paul. 2007. Diasporas in Conflict. Peacemakers or Peace Wreckers? New York: United Nations University Press.
Tago, Atsushi. 2005. ‘Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force: State of Economy, Election Cycle, and Divided Government’. Journal of Peace Research 42(5):585604.
United Nations. 1998. Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration (Revision 1). United Nations Statistics Division. UN, New York.
UNHCR. 2004. ‘Economic and Social Impacts of Massive Refugee Populations on Host Developing Countries, As Well As Other Countries’. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Standing Committee (EC/54/SC/CRP.5).
Vasquez, Joseph Paul. 2005. ‘Shouldering the Soldiering: Democracy, Conscription, and Military Casualties’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(6):849873.
Vertovec, Steven. 2005. The Political Importance of Diasporas. Oxford: Center on Migration, Policy & Society.
Zanfrini, Laura. 2016. ‘How Europe can Benefit from Immigration-Related “Diversity” – a Policy Paper’. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 22(3):295326.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Science Research and Methods
  • ISSN: 2049-8470
  • EISSN: 2049-8489
  • URL: /core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Bove and Böhmelt Dataset
Dataset

 Unknown
PDF
Supplementary materials

Bove and Böhmelt supplementary material
Appendix

 PDF (295 KB)
295 KB

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 5
Total number of PDF views: 57 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 438 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 17th July 2017 - 23rd April 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.