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Model Dependency in the Analysis of Women's Electoral Success

  • Michael Jankowski (a1) and Kamil Marcinkiewicz (a1)

Abstract

Maciej Górecki provides a detailed and interesting discussion of our analysis regarding women's electoral success in the Polish open-list proportional representation (PR) system and the impact of a gender quota implemented in 2011. In essence, he claims that it remains an open question whether the gender quota had a ‘paradoxical’ effect (i.e., whether the introduction of the gender quota had a negative impact on female candidates) due to ‘debatable’ methodological choices in our analysis. In this article, we respond to Górecki's critique. First, we demonstrate that we do not necessarily disagree on the paradoxical impact of the gender quota but rather on the strength of the paradoxical effect. Second, we discuss some drawbacks of using the raw number of votes cast for a candidate as the dependent variable. Finally, we respond to the critique of including the ballot position in the regression model. We emphasize that even if one agrees with Górecki's critique that the ballot position is endogenous, excluding this variable leads to a severely misspecified model that does not allow one to reliably identify the effect of gender.

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References

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Däubler, Thomas and Rudolph, Lukas. 2018. “Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects.” Political behavior. doi: 10.1007/s11109-018-9513-1.
Golder, Sona N., Stephenson, Laura B., Van der Straeten, Karine, Blais, André, Bol, Damien, Harfst, Philipp, and Laslier, Jean-François. 2017. “Votes for Women: Electoral Systems and Support for Female Candidates.” Politics & Gender 13 (1): 107131.
Górecki, M. A. 2019The Troublesome ‘Paradox of Gender Quotas’: A Few Methodological Notes on the Margin of an Article by Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz,” Politics & Gender. Cambridge University Press, pp. 18. doi: 10.1017/S1743923X19000011.
Górecki, Maciej, and Kukołowicz, Paula. 2014. “Gender Quotas, Candidate Background and the Election of Women: A Paradox of Gender Quotas in Open-List Proportional Representation Systems.” Electoral Studies 36:6580.
Jankowski, Michael, and Marcinkiewicz, Kamil. 2017. “Ineffective and Counterproductive? The Impact of Gender Quotas in Open-List Proportional Representation Systems.” Politics & Gender 15:133. doi: 10.1017/S1743923X17000538.
Jankowski, Michael, and Marcinkiewicz, Kamil. 2018. “Are Populist Parties Fostering Women's Political Representation in Poland? A Comment on Kostadinova and Mikulska.” Party Politics 24 (2): 185196.
Marcinkiewicz, Kamil. 2014. “Electoral Contexts That Assist Voter Coordination: Ballot Position Effects in Poland.” Electoral Studies 33:322334.
Marcinkiewicz, Kamil, and Stegmaier, Mary. 2015. “Ballot Position Effects Under Compulsory and Optional Preferential-List PR Electoral Systems.” Political Behavior 37 (2): 465486.
Marcinkiewicz, Kamil, and Jankowski, Michael. 2014. “When There's No Easy Way Out: Electoral Law Reform and Ballot Position Effects in the 2011 Hamburg State Elections.” German Politics 23 (1–2): 103117.
Sevi, Semra, Arel-Bundock, Vincent, and Blais, André. 2019. “Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No.Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, online first.
Teele, Dawn Langan, Kalla, Joshua, and Rosenbluth, Frances. 2018. “The Ties That Double Bind: Social Roles and Women's Underrepresentation in Politics.” American Political Science Review 112 (3): 525541.

Keywords

Model Dependency in the Analysis of Women's Electoral Success

  • Michael Jankowski (a1) and Kamil Marcinkiewicz (a1)

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