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The 2010 Elections: Why Did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?

  • David W. Brady (a1), Morris P. Fiorina (a1) and Arjun S. Wilkins (a1)

In President Obama's words, the Democratic Party experienced a “shellacking” in the 2010 elections. In particular, the net loss of 63 House seats was the biggest midterm loss suffered by a party since 1938—the largest in the lifetimes of approximately 93% of the American population.

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Gary C. Jacobson 1996. “The 1994 House Elections in Perspective.” Political Science Quarterly 111: 203–23.

Bruce I. Oppenheimer , James A. Stimson , and Richard W. Waterman . 1986. “Interpreting U.S. Congressional Elections: The Exposure Thesis.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 11: 227–47.

Lynn Vavreck . 2009. The Message Matters. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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