The Coming Democratic Realignment

For many years, Democrats have waited patiently to preside over good times. No Koreas, Vietnams, or Irans. No stagflation. Just nice, tranquil prosperity—the sort of happy circumstances that make not only for short-run electoral success, but also for the recruitment of tried-and-true Democrats. Since the early 1980s, the Democratic Party has been short on Democrats. In the 1970s, Democrats comprised roughly two-thirds of all party identifiers; at the close of the century, that figure stood at approximately 57%.

At long last, the Democrats seem to have their chance. By every measure, the economy has been booming. In particular, consumer confidence, which MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1989) have hailed as one of the driving forces behind partisan realignment, has soared. During Ronald Reagan's “Morning in America,” the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 95. Clinton's mornings have been even rosier, given the 100+ scores that have been posted every quarter since the spring of 1997 (see http://www.fcnbd.com/cor/fccm/Research-Fixed/usdata/sentiment/sentiment.htm). Indeed, the Index of Consumer Sentiment has regularly achieved the highest levels ever recorded since 1953.

Another driving force behind partisan realignment, presidential popularity, has also soared. Say what you will about President Clinton's travails in office; his Gallup Poll approval ratings have always been respectable. No Nixon-, Carter-, or Bush-like scores in the 30s for him. Indeed, Bill Clinton has at times achieved Kennedyesque scores in the 60s, and his average rating easily surpasses that of Ronald Reagan.