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Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2008 Presidential Election

  • Thomas M. Holbrook (a1)

At the time of this writing (early August, 2008), the political landscape would appear to bode well for Barack Obama and spell almost certain disaster for John McCain. With presidential approval hovering in the high-20 and low-30% range for more than a year, and levels of economic satisfaction bottoming out, it “should” be a terrible year for the Republican Party in general and the Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, in particular, at least if the retrospective model holds. One factor that could mitigate the impact of negative retrospections, however, is that George W. Bush himself is not on the ballot to absorb the full impact of the national angst; in fact, for the first time since 1952, neither the president nor vice president is on the ballot.

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James E. Campbell 2008, forthcoming. “Evaluating U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts and Forecasting Equations.” International Journal of Forecasting.

Richard Nadeau , and Michael S. Lewis-Beck . 2001. “National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Journal of Politics 63: 159–81.

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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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