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Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls: The 2010 Midterm Election

  • Joseph Bafumi (a1), Robert S. Erikson (a2) and Christopher Wlezien (a3)


In this article, we present a forecast of the 2010 midterm House election based on information available in early July 2010. We combine this forecast with a note of caution, explaining why electoral circumstances might lead our forecast to err. Finally, we present guidance regarding how to update the electoral forecast for 2010 based on new information that will become available leading up to Election Day.



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Bafumi, Joseph, Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. “Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls.” In Elections and Exit Polling, ed. Alvey, Wendy and Scheuren, Fritz, 118–23. New York: Wiley and Sons.
Bafumi, Joseph, Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2010. “Balancing, Generic Polls, and Midterm Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 72: 705–19.
Wlezien, Christopher, and Erikson, Robert S.. 2002. “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 64: 969–93.
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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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