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Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model

  • Alan I. Abramowitz (a1)

At first glance, the outcome of the 2008 presidential election would appear to be very difficult to predict. For the first time in over 50 years, there will be no incumbent president or vice president in the race. Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, is pinning its hopes of retaining control of the White House on Arizona Senator John McCain—an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party's leadership. And McCain's Democratic opponent will be Illinois Senator Barack Obama, the first African American ever to receive a major-party presidential nomination.

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Alan I. Abramowitz 1996. “Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure: Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 434–42.

Richard Brody , and Lee Sigelman . 1983. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47: 325–8.

Ray C. Fair 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159–72.

Douglas A. Hibbs Jr. 2000. “Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104: 149–80.

Helmut Norpoth . 1996. “Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 443–67.

Christopher Wlezien , and Robert S. Erikson . 1996. “Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 492505.

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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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