Skip to main content

Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election

  • Martial Foucault (a1) and Richard Nadeau (a1)

Who will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the small N problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.

Hide All
Auberger, Antoine. 2010. “Popularity and Vote: Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 43: 123–36.
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 36: 386407.
Dubois, Éric, and Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine. 2004. “Vote Functions in France and the 2002 Election Forecast.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, M.S.. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2004. “Forecasting the 2002 Elections: Lessons from a Political Economy Model.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, M.S.. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Greene, William H., 2008. Econometric Analysis. 6th edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Lafay, Jean-Dominique, Facchini, François, and Auberger, Antoine. 2007. “Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007.” Revue Française d'Economie 21: 523.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Bélanger, Éric, and Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine. 2008. “Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model.” French Politics 6: 106–15.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. “Economic Models of Voting.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, R. and Klingemann, H.-D., 518–37. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Nadeau, Richard, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Bélanger, Éric. 2010. “Electoral Forecasting in France: A Multi-Equation Solution.” International Journal of Forecasting 26: 1118.
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years.” Public Choice 79: 213–45.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *


Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed