Skip to main content
×
Home

History and Primary: The Obama Reelection

  • Helmut Norpoth (a1) and Michael Bednarczuk (a2)
Abstract

Democrat Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin in the 2012 presidential election. This forecast comes from a statistical model that uses the primary performance of the candidates and a cycle in presidential elections to predict the presidential vote. In plain English, Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The model, called The Primary Model because of its heavy reliance on primaries, covers elections from 1912, the beginning of presidential primaries. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is used; we justify the choice of New Hampshire at some length.

Copyright
References
Hide All
Adams William C. 1987. “As New Hampshire Goes …” In Media and Momentum, eds. Orren Gary and Polsby Nelson. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
Buell Emmett H. 2000. “The Changing Face of the New Hampshire Primary.” In In Pursuit of the White House 2000, ed. Mayer William. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.
Jones Randall. 2002. Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections. New York: Longman.
Norpoth Helmut. 1995. “Is Clinton Doomed? An Early Forecast for 1996.” PS: Political Science & Politics 28: 201–07.
Norpoth Helmut. 2000. “Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996.” In Before the Vote:Forecasting American National Elections, eds. Campbell James E. and Garand James C., 5781. Thousands Oaks, CA: Sage.
Norpoth Helmut. 2001. “Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34 (1): 4548.
Norpoth Helmut. 2002. “On a Short Leash: Term Limits and Economic Voting.” In The Context of Economic Voting, eds. Dorussen Han and Taylor Michael, 121–36. London: Routledge.
Norpoth Helmut. 2004. “From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 37 (4): 737–40.
Norpoth Helmut. 2008. “On the Razor's Edge: The Forecast of the Primary Model.” PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4): 683–86.
Yule G.U. 1971. “On a Method of Investigating Periodicities in Disturbed Series with Special Reference to Wolfer's Sunspot Numbers.” In Statistical Papers of George Udny Yule, eds. Stuart A. and Kendall M., 389420. New York: Hafner Press (originally published in 1927).
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 15
Total number of PDF views: 42 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 124 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 22nd November 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.