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WHY THE STATE-BY-STATE POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL DID IT RIGHT

  • Bruno Jerôme (a1) and Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (a2)
Extract

One hundred and forty two days before the 2012 US presidential election our final State-by-State Political-Economy Model gave an advantage to Barack Obama with 51.6% of the popular vote (error margin ± 4.47) and 324 electoral votes (Jerôme and Jerôme-Speziari 2012). On November 6, 2012, with 51.6% of the vote and 332 electoral votes, the Democratic incumbent wins a second term. Regarding certainty of an Obama plurality, the model gave a probability of victory by 64%. In 2012, it seems that this was enough to ensure a good predictability.

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Jerôme, Bruno, and Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 663–68.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting, Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Political International Research 7: 145–64.
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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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