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Crisis stability or general stability? Assessing Northeast Asia’s absence of war and prospects for liberal transition

  • JONG KUN CHOI
Abstract

Is the relatively long peace of Northeast Asia a result of crisis stability or general stability? The article introduces two stability concepts – crisis and general stability. Crisis stability occurs when both sides in military crisis are so secure due to its military capability and are able to wait out a surprise attack fully confident that it would be able to respond with a punishing counter attack. On the other hand, general stability prevails when two powers greatly prefer peace even to a victorious war whether crisis stability exists or not, simply because war has become inconceivable as a means of solving any political disagreements and conflicts. While crisis stability entails delicate balance of military power from the deterrence literature of security studies, general stability bases its logic of inquiry on constructivism where the idea of war aversion – categorically rejecting war as a means to end conflicts – becomes the prevailing norm. Therefore, this article empirically examines how Northeast Asia has sustained its peace through crisis stability and presents a new trend toward general stability.

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The author would like to thank Bates Gill, Kevin Clements, Chung-in Moon, and Stein Tonnesson for their helpful comments on an early version of this article. Thanks also to Hans Schattle and Joe Phillips provided very meaningful comments on the semi-final version of the manuscript and the three anonymous referees, whose critical feedback comments pushed me to rethink several portions of the argument. The author finally thanks Kun Sik Hong and Do Hyung Kim for their research assistance. Financial support by the East Asia Peace Programme at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University is gratefully acknowledged.

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1 I define Northeast Asia as a subregion of East Asia that includes Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and China. In this article, the United States of America is treated as an external-regional state.

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For literatures on the absence of major war among major states, see Mueller, John, Retreat from Dooms Day: The Obsolescence of Major War (New York: Basic Books, 1989); Goldgeier, James M. and McFaul, Michael, ‘A tale of two worlds: Core and periphery in the post-Cold War era’, International Organization, 46:1 (1992), pp. 467–491; Shaw, Martin, Global Society and International Relations (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1994); Duffild, John, ‘Transatlantic relations after the Cold War: Theory, evidence, and the future’, International Studies Perspectives, 2:1 (2001), pp. 93–115.

4 Europe, otherwise known as a stable region of peace, has also suffered from numerous militarised conflicts in areas such as the former Yugoslavia (Bosnia, Kosovo) and, most recently, Ukraine.

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71 Originally cited in ‘East Asian regionalism’, p. 21; Severino, Rodolfo, ‘The ASEAN way in Manila’, Far Eastern Economic Review (1999), p. 27.

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75 Choi, Jong Kun, ‘Bolstering economic interdependence despite bullying memories in Northeast Asia’, in T. J. Pempel (ed.), The Economy-Security Nexus in Northeast Asia (New York: Routledge, 2012), ch. 5.

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78 For an analysis that shows the statistical salience of economic interdependence in East Asia, see Goldstein, Benjamin E., ‘A liberal peace in Asia?’, Journal of Peace Research, 44:1 (2007), pp. 527.

79 Pempel, T. J. (ed.), The Economy-Security Nexus in Northeast Asia, p. 10.

80 ‘South Korea, China Agree on Outline of Free-Trade Deal’, Wall Street Journal (10 November 2014), available at: {http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-china-agree-on-free-trade-deal-1415588514} accessed 23 February 2015.

81 Acharya, Amitav, ‘Engagement or entrapment? Scholarship and policymaking on Asian regionalism’, International Studies Review, 13:1 (2011), pp. 12–17; Evans, Peter, ‘Between regionalism and regionalization: Policy networks and the nascent East Asian institutional identity’, in T. J. Pempel (ed.), Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005), pp. 195215.

82 The Center for Strategic and International Studies, ‘Strategic Views on Asian Regionalism: Survey Results and Analysis 2009’ (Washington, DC: CSIS, 2009).

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85 The World Value Survey (2010–14) finds that 60.6 per cent of the Chinese respondents see themselves as ‘Asian’ while 72.2 per cent of the Korean respondents see themselves as ‘Northeast Asian’. The survey does not report the Japanese data. See V215_07 for Korea and V215_14 for China in World Survey Wave 6: 2010–14, An On-Line Data Set, available at: {http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSOnline.jsp}.

86 The survey result can be found at ‘How Asians View Each Other’, available at: {http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/07/14/chapter-4-how-asians-view-each-other/}.

87 Cho, Il Hyun and Park, Seo-Hyun. ‘Anti-Chinese and Anti-Japanese sentiments in East Asia: the politics of opinion, distrust, and prejudice’, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 4:3 (2011), pp. 265290; Choi, Jong Kun, ‘Can Japan engage Northeast Asia? Overcoming perceptual and strategic deficits’, in Purnendra Jain and Brad Williams (eds), Japan in Decline, Fact or Fiction? (Kent, UK: Global Oriental, 2011), pp. 129144.

88 Choi, Jong Kun, ‘Sunshine over a barren soil: the domestic politics of engagement identity formation in South Korea’, Asian Perspective, 34:4 (2010), pp. 115138; Moon, Chung-in, The Sunshine Policy: In Defense of Engagement as a Path to Peace in Korea (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 2012).

* The author would like to thank Bates Gill, Kevin Clements, Chung-in Moon, and Stein Tonnesson for their helpful comments on an early version of this article. Thanks also to Hans Schattle and Joe Phillips provided very meaningful comments on the semi-final version of the manuscript and the three anonymous referees, whose critical feedback comments pushed me to rethink several portions of the argument. The author finally thanks Kun Sik Hong and Do Hyung Kim for their research assistance. Financial support by the East Asia Peace Programme at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University is gratefully acknowledged.

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