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Prediction of psychosis

A step towards indicated prevention of schizophrenia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 August 2018

Alison R. Yung ,
Lisa J. Phillips ,
Patrick D. McGorry ,
Colleen A. McFarlane ,
Shona Francey ,
Susan Harrigan ,
George C. Patton  and
Henry J. Jackson
Alison R. Yung*
Affiliation:
Centre for Young People's Mental Health, Victoria, Australia
Lisa J. Phillips
Affiliation:
University of Melbourne, Department of Psychiatry, Victoria, Australia
Patrick D. McGorry
Affiliation:
Centre for Young People's Mental Health, Victoria, Australia
Colleen A. McFarlane
Affiliation:
University of Melbourne, Department of Psychiatry, Victoria, Australia
Shona Francey
Affiliation:
Early Psychosis Research Centre, Victoria Australia
Susan Harrigan
Affiliation:
University of Melbourne Department of Psychiatry, Melbourne, Australia
George C. Patton
Affiliation:
Centre for Adolescent Health, Victoria, Australia
Henry J. Jackson
Affiliation:
Early Psychosis Research Centre, Victoria Australia
*
Correspondence: A. R. Yung, Centre for Young People's Mental Health, 35 Polar Road, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia
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Abstract

Background The identification of people at high risk of becoming psychotic within the near future creates opportunities for early intervention prior to the onset of psychosis to prevent or minimise later ill-health. The present study combines current knowledge about risk factors for schizophrenia with our knowledge of psychotic prodromes in an attempt to identify a group particularly vulnerable to impending psychosis. We wanted to identify people with high likelihood of transition to psychosis within a follow-up period of 12 months, and to determine the rate of transition to psychosis in this group.

Method Various state and trait risk factors for psychosis were used alone and in combination to operationally define a putatively high-risk group. Operationalised criteria for onset of psychosis were established. The individuals were assessed monthly on measures of psychopathology for six months.

Results Eight out of 20 people made the transition to frank psychosis within a six-month follow-up period. Follow-up of this group is still in progress, and the 12 month transition rate might prove to be higher still.

Conclusions We have demonstrated that it is possible to identify individuals with a high likelihood of onset of psychosis within a brief follow-up period. This lays the foundation for early treatment in an attempt to prevent, delay or minimise the severity of first onset of schizophrenia.

Type
Research Article
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 172 , Issue S33: Verging on reality , June 1998 , pp. 14 - 20
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 The Royal College of Psychiatrists 

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