The paper takes as its basis the mortality aspect of population projections with particular reference to this aspect of the report by the Royal Commission on Population (Cmd. 7695), and the Reports and Selected Papers of the Statistics Committee published as Volume II of the Papers of the Royal Commission.

The alternative assumptions regarding future mortality adopted by the Statistics Committee for use in their published population projections and the effects of the assumptions on those projections are discussed. The paper considers also the generation approach, the ultimate irreducible level of mortality approach, and remarks are made on the analysis of mortality according to cause of death. Further, general consideration is given to a number of factors the precise extent of the influence of which on future mortality is unknown, to demonstrate the insufficiency of a single forecast of mortality when dealing with the problem of population projections.

The conclusion is arrived at that neither of the mortality assumptions adopted by the Statistics Committee was at the time an extreme assumption, but that from considerations of the mortality aspect alone this Committee extended their projections too far into the future. The opinion is reached also that a method which makes some allowance for a generational influence would have been a suitable alternative to the declining mortality method adopted, for obtaining a not extremely light estimate of future mortality. The ultimate irreducible level of mortality approach is concluded to be impracticable at the present time, although the view is formed that the results of analyses of deaths according to cause of death should be of value when considering future population mortality.

In the first part of the paper the general nature of the problem is dealt with in relation to the movements which take place in group pension schemes and the information which is readily available from the normal office records. The choice of valuation date is discussed and some of the differences which exist between private funds and office schemes and which lead to essentially different treatment are noted.

The valuation of schemes providing future service pension by the single and annual premium methods is discussed separately, each being developed from a consideration of the simplest form of contract to the more elaborate forms, and approached from the standpoint of the net premium and gross premium methods of valuation. Under each heading theoretical formulas are given and these are considered from the practical standpoint of designing accurate valuation methods and of devising, without appreciable loss of accuracy, approximate methods which reduce considerably the arithmetical work. Throughout, the effort is made to reduce the data to be recorded to a minimum and to use, wherever possible, the data which an office will require for its costing purposes.

The paper includes a section on past service pension in which is given a theoretical review of the various methods commonly used to provide pensions.

In the appendices it is demonstrated how Trachtenberg's formula may be adapted for valuation of a single premium scheme by the net premium approach and an example is given of the working of the suggested short method in the valuation of an actual scheme together with a valuation “in extenso” for comparison of the results obtained.

The authors' purpose in this paper is to analyse the financial structure of a life office and, in particular, the relationship between the assets and liabilities of a life assurance fund. This analysis is based upon the principle that the guarantees of future capital security and of long-term interest yield involved in the contracts issued by a life office should be backed either by “matched assets” providing equivalent guarantees of capital and interest or by sufficient free reserves to cover the possible adverse effects of departure from the “matched assets” position.

In Parts I and II of the paper, the principle of “matched assets” is studied in relation to three model offices representing stationary and increasing funds operating under idealised conditions. For each model office the “standard” date-distribution of assets is determined–the distribution which, so far as possible, will insulate the fund from the effects of fluctuations in the market rate of interest upon existing assets and liabilities. The profit or loss resulting from “going long” or “going short”, as compared with the standard asset distribution, is then investigated against the background of a rise or a fall in the general level of interest rates.

At the beginning of 1948 the Continuous Mortality Investigation was extended to pensioners who had retired under life office pension schemes. Thirty offices agreed to contribute data, which for the most part are derived from pension schemes issued as “group” business although data for pension schemes operated by means of individual contracts are also included.

The author refers to two types of insurance cover which may be obtained to meet the heavy expenses incurred in serious illness—firstly, the income maintenance cover provided by friendly societies and by the permanent sickness and accident policies of insurance companies, and secondly, the indemnity provided against certain specific expenses of illness which is provided by a number of private non-profit-making associations. A description is given of the benefits generally provided by these latter associations, and a number of restrictions which may govern the payment of benefits are enumerated.

The author proceeds to give details of the Benevolent Fund of a large company which provides sickness benefits similar to those provided by the private associations but subject to none of their limitations.

The sickness experience of the Fund is investigated for each of the last three quinquenniums covering the period 1934–48 and also for the period 1949–51, and mention is made of problems arising in the collection and setting out of the data.

The paper attempts to give a factual description of industrial assurance as it is today. Among the matters discussed are :–

• Definition, origin and development of the business

• Legislation affecting it

• Statistics

• Expenses

• Changes in the type of business transacted in recent years

• The organization of a large industrial assurance office

• New business, policy conditions, and the calculation of benefits

• Methods, bases and machinery used in the valuation of policy contracts

• Profit sharing and its evolution

• Free policies and cash surrender values

• Lapse rates

• Protection from forfeiture during periods of emergency

• Criticisms

• Positive achievements of industrial assurance and its future

The paper gives a review of some aspects of Scottish mortality experienced in the two trienniums 1936–38 and 1947–49. After an initial consideration of crude and standardized death rates and age-group death rates, mortality rates analysed according to certain grouped causes of death are compared for the two periods of years and for the two sexes and commented upon.

Apart from the desirability of considering recent past experience in some detail an additional purpose of the paper is to make a preliminary investigation in connection with the suggestion recently put forward (J. G. Kyd, T.F.A. 21, page 46) that estimates of future Scottish mortality should be made by considering separately a number of causes of death. In the paper the opinion is arrived at that in general there would appear to be no insuperable difficulties in bringing the suggestion to fruition.

Towards the end of 1949 the Council decided that the War Memorial in the Faculty Hall which commemorated those who gave their lives and those who served in the 1914–1918 War * should be re‐designed to include only the names of those who lost their lives in that War and to incorporate the names of those who fell in the 1939–1945 War. A Committee was appointed to consider how best to give effect to this decision, and as a result of the Committee's deliberations a new Memorial was erected in the Hall in 1952. A photograph (in colour) of the new Memorial will be found on the opposite page.