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An unknown Phanerozoic driver of brachiopod extinction rates unveiled by multivariate linear stochastic differential equations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 June 2017

Trond Reitan  and
Lee Hsiang Liow
Trond Reitan
Affiliation:
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Post Office Box 1066, Blindern, N-3016, Oslo, Norway. E-mail: trond.reitan@ibv.uio.no
Lee Hsiang Liow
Affiliation:
Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1172, Blindern, N-3018, Oslo, Norway, and Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Post Office Box 1066 Blindern, N-3016, Oslo, Norway. E-mail: l.h.liow@ibv.uio.no
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Abstract

Whether the evolutionary dynamics of one group of organisms influence that of another group of organisms over the vast timescale of the geological record is a difficult question to tackle. This is not least because multiple factors can influence or mask the effects of potential driving forces on evolutionary dynamics of the focal group. Here, we show how an approach amenable to causality inference for time series, linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs), can be used in a multivariate fashion to shed light on driving forces of diversification dynamics across the Phanerozoic. Using a new, enhanced stepwise search algorithm, we searched through hundreds of models to converge on a model that best describes the dynamic relationships that drove brachiopod and bivalve diversification rates. Using this multivariate framework, we characterized a slow process (half-life of c. 42 Myr) that drove brachiopod extinction. This slow process has yet to be identified from the geological record. Using our new framework for analyzing multiple linear SDEs, we also corroborate our previous findings that bivalve extinction drove brachiopod origination in the sense that brachiopods tended to diversify at a greater rate when bivalves were removed from the system. It is also very likely that bivalves “self-regulate” in the sense that bivalve extinctions also paved the way for higher bivalve origination rates. Multivariate linear SDEs as we presented them here are likely useful for studying other dynamic systems whose signatures are preserved in the paleontological record.

Type
Articles
Information
Paleobiology , Volume 43 , Issue 4 , November 2017 , pp. 537 - 549
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 The Paleontological Society. All rights reserved 

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