Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-jr42d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T17:15:18.805Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Strategic Timing of Position Taking in Congress: A Study of the North American Free Trade Agreement

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier ,
Laura W. Arnold  and
Christopher J. W. Zorn
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier
Affiliation:
Ohio State University
Laura W. Arnold
Affiliation:
Ohio State University
Christopher J. W. Zorn
Affiliation:
Emory University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A critical element of decision making is the timing of choices political actors make; often when a decision is made is as critical as the decision itself. We posit a dynamic model of strategic position announcement based on signaling theories of legislative politics. We suggest that members who receive clear signals from constituents, interest groups, and policy leaders will announce their positions earlier. Those with conflicting signals will seek more information, delaying their announcement. We test several expectations by examining data on when members of the House of Representatives announced their positions on the North American Free Trade Agreement. We also contrast the timing model with a vote model, and find that there are meaningful differences between the factors influencing the timing of position announcements and vote choice. Our research allows analysts to interpret the process leading up to the House action and the end state of that process.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 91 , Issue 2 , June 1997 , pp. 324 - 338
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alt, James, and King, Gary. 1994. “Transfers of Governmental Power: The Meaning of Time Dependence.” Comparative Political Studies 27(2):190–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baron, David P. 1990. “Distributive Politics and the Persistence of Amtrak.” Journal of Politics 52(08):883–913.Google Scholar
Barrow, Deborah, and Zuk, Gary. 1990. “An Institutional Analysis of Turnover in the Lower Federal Courts, 1900–1987.” Journal of Politics 52(05):457–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 1991. “Constituency Opinion and Congressional Policy Making: The Reagan Defense Buildup.” American Political Science Review 85(06):457–74.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 1996. “Modelling Space and Time: The Event History Approach.” University of California, San Diego. Type-script.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C. III. 1996. “The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816–1985.” American Political Science Review 90(06):239–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. 1996. “A Dynamic Analysis of the Role of War Chests in Campaign Strategy.” American Journal of Political Science 40(05):352–71.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford. N.d. “Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Brace, Paul, and Hinckley, Barbara. 1993. “Presidential Activities from Truman through Reagan: Timing and Impact.” Journal of Politics 55(05):382–98.Google Scholar
Breslow, N. E. 1974. “Covariance Analysis of Censored Survival Data.” Biometrics 30(03):89–99.Google Scholar
Buchanan, William, Eulau, Heinz, Ferguson, LeRoy C., and Wahlke, John. 1960. “The Legislator as Specialist.” Western Political Quarterly 13(09):636–51.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89(06):841–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chung, Ching-Fan, Schmidt, Peter, and Witte, Ann D.. 1991. “Survival Analysis: A Survey.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 7(03): 59–98.Google Scholar
CongressDaily. 1993. “Florida Votes in Flux after Citrus, Farm Products Talks.” 11 16, 1993, p. 2.Google Scholar
Congressional Quarterly Almanac. 1993. “Congress OKs North American Trade Pact.” 49:171–81.Google Scholar
Cox, D. 1972. “Regression Models and Life Tables.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Serial B 34(2):187–220.Google Scholar
Cronbach, L. 1987. “Statistical Tests for Moderator Variables: Flaws in Analysis Recently Proposed.” Psychological Bulletin 102(11):414–17.Google Scholar
Farewell, V. T., and Prentice, R. L.. 1980. “The Approximation of Partial Likelihood with Emphasis on Case-Control Studies.” Biometrika 67(08):273–8.Google Scholar
Federal Election Commission. 1995. “1994 Year-end PAC counts.” FEC Record 21(03):11.Google Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1990. Watching Politicians: Essays on Participant Observation. Berkeley: Institute of Governmental Studies Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1975. “Constituency Influence: A Generalized Model and Its Implications for Statistical Studies of Roll Call Behavior.” Political Methodology 2(4):249–66.Google Scholar
Frenzel, Bill. 1994. “GATT: Where the Real Money Is.” Brookings Review 12(Summer):3.Google Scholar
Friedrich, Robert J. 1982. “In Defense of Multiplicative Terms in Multiple Regression Equations.” American Journal of Political Science 26(11):797–833.Google Scholar
Galvin, Thomas. 1993. “PACs: Silence Speaks Volumes.” Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report 51(09 18, 1993):2437.Google Scholar
Gasioroworski, Mark J. 1995. “Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis.” American Political Science Review 89(12):882–97.Google Scholar
Greene, William. 1993. Econometric Analysis, 2d ed. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Hagle, Timothy M. 1993. “Strategic Retirements: A Political Model of Turnover on the United States Supreme Court.” Political Behavior 15(1):25–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirsch, Barry, and MacPherson, David. 1993. “Union Membership and Coverage Files from the Current Population Surveys.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review 46(04):574–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalt, Joseph P., and Zupan, Mark A.. 1990. “The Apparent Ideological Behavior of Legislators: Testing for Principal-Agent Slack in Political Institutions.” Journal of Law and Economics 33(04):103–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, Jonathan N., and Sala, Brian R.. 1996. “Careerism, Committee Assignments, and the Electoral Connection.” American Political Science Review 90(03):21–33.Google Scholar
Kau, James B., and Rubin, Paul H.. 1978. “Voting on Minimum Wages: A Time-Series Analysis.” Journal of Political Economy 86(04):337–43.Google Scholar
Keech, William R., and Pak, Kyoungsan. 1995. “Partisanship, Institutions, and Change in American Trade Politics.” Journal of Politics 57(11):1130–42.Google Scholar
Kessler, Daniel, and Krehbiel, Keith. 1996. “Dynamics of Cosponsorship.” American Political Science Review 90(09):555–66.Google Scholar
Kiefer, Nicholas M. 1988. “Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions.” Journal of Economic Literature 26(06):646–79.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1989. Unifying Political Methodology. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Alt, James E., Burns, Nancy E., and Laver, Michael. 1990. “A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 34(08):846–71.Google Scholar
Kingdon, John W. 1989. Congressmen's Voting Decisions. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Krehbiel, Keith. 1991. Information and Legislative Organization. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Krehbiel, Keith. 1996. “Committee Power, Leadership, and the Median Voter: Evidence from the Smoking Ban.” Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 12(01):234–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuklinski, James H. 1979. “Representative-Constituency Linkages: A Review Article.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 4(02):121–40.Google Scholar
Lindsay, James M. 1991. “Testing the Parochial Hypothesis: Congress and the Strategic Defense Initiative.” Journal of Politics 52(08):860–76.Google Scholar
Matthews, Donald R., and Stimson, James A.. 1975. Yeas and Nays: Normal Decision Making in the U.S. House of Representatives. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Peto, R. 1972. “Contribution to Discussion Paper by D. R. Cox.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Serial B 34(2):205–7.Google Scholar
PR Newswire Association, Inc. 1992. “Statement of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Low-wage Strategy Will Hurt Country.” August 11, 1992.Google Scholar
Quinones, Sherry Bennett. 1994. “The Political Economy of the North American Free Trade Agreement.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York.Google Scholar
Sinclair, Barbara. 1982. Congressional Realignment 1925–1978. Austin: University of Texas Press.Google Scholar
Spriggs, James F. II, and Wahlbeck, Paul J.. 1995. “Calling It Quits: Strategic Retirements on the Federal Courts of Appeals, 1893–1991.” Political Research Quarterly 48(3):573–97.Google Scholar
Teachman, Jay D., and Hayward, Mark D.. 1993. “Interpreting Hazard Rate Models.” Sociological Methods and Research 21(02):340–71.Google Scholar
Thorbecke, Willem. 1995. “Explaining House Voting on the North American Free Trade Agreement.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Public Choice Society, Long Beach, CA.Google Scholar
Uslaner, Eric. 1995. “Trade Winds: NAFTA, the Rational Public, and the Responsive Congress.” University of Maryland of College Park. Typescript.Google Scholar
VanDoren, Peter M. 1990. “Can We Learn Causes of Congressional Decisions from Roll-Call Data?” Legislative Studies Quarterly 15(08):311–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1992. “Economic Trends and Government Survival in West European Parliamentary Democracies.” American Political Science Review 86(12):875–86.Google Scholar
Wink, Kenneth A., Livingston, C. Don, and Garand, James C.. 1996. “Dispositions, Constituencies, and Cross-Pressures: Modelling Roll-Call Voting on the North American Free Trade Agreement in the U.S. House.” Political Research Quarterly 49(12):749–70.Google Scholar