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A dynamic linear modelling approach to public policy change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 October 2017

Matt W. Loftis  and
Peter B. Mortensen
Matt W. Loftis
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Denmark E-mail: mattwloftis@ps.au.dk
Peter B. Mortensen
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Aarhus University, Denmark E-mail: peter@ps.au.dk
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Abstract

Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement: the relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time series analysis of public policy. This article introduces dynamic linear modelling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public policy. The article offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of United States defense policy from 1957 to 2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process, and the article concludes with a discussion of how this research programme can profit from applying DLMs.

Keywords

policy dynamicspublic policypublic spendingPunctuated Equilibrium Theory
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 38 , Issue 4 , December 2018 , pp. 553 - 579
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press, 2017 

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