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Explaining Variance; Or, Stuck in a Moment We Can't Get Out Of

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Bear F. Braumoeller
Bear F. Braumoeller*
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street #209N, Cambridge, MA 02138. e-mail: bfbraum@fas.harvard.edu
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Abstract

Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance, not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the general headings of aggregation, contagion, and constraint—in order to demonstrate the logical coherence of variance-altering causation and the many ways in which it can arise. The discussion highlights the often-stringent empirical and logical requirements that must be met if the researcher hopes to make concrete predictions about changes in variance.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 14 , Issue 3: Special Issue on Causal Complexity and Qualitative Methods , Summer 2006 , pp. 268 - 290
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology 

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