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Predicting the abundance of the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 July 2009

R. Wall ,
N. P. French  and
K. L. Morgan
R. Wall*
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bristol, UK
N. P. French
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bristol, UK
K. L. Morgan
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bristol, UK
*
Department of Zoology, University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Bristol, BS8 1UG, UK.
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Abstract

Populations of the blowfly Lucilia sericata Meigen in sheep pastures were monitored for three years (1990–1992) using sticky targets. A simulation model, developed previously from detailed analyses of the effects of temperature on the component stages of the life-cycle of L. sericata, was used to predict the pattern of seasonal abundance expected during these years at the temperatures observed. After inclusion of the effects of temperature over each catching interval, the model was able to explain 67%, 52% and 49% of the variance in catch in 1990, 1991 and 1992, respectively. The model was validated by using regression coefficients and constants derived from data collected over previous years to predict the expected catch in the following year. Up to 50% of the variance in catch was explained by this analysis. The results confirm value of the day-degree modelling approach for this blowfly species and suggest that such predictive models may play an important role in the development of strategic control for flystrike prevention.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 83 , Issue 3 , September 1993 , pp. 431 - 436
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1993

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